VOA标准英语2010年-Analysts Warn Renewed War in Sudan Wou

With Sudan's referendum on independence approaching, a coalition¹ of economic and security groups are warning that renewed violence could cost as much as $100 billion.
There are less than 50 days left before southern Sudan holds a critical referendum on secession from the north. This vote could see Africa's largest country split in two, but fears amounting that technical problems, political stalling and protracted² negotiations³ could delay the vote and spark a renewed civil war. The international warnings about human suffering and violence have not provoked the unity⁴ between north and south that observers hope would ensure and amicable⁵ split, so a coalition of economic, political and social groups are offering a different perspective.
Their report, released Thursday, in Nairobi is now warning both Sudanese and international stakeholders that a renewed civil war in the wake of the referendum could cost as much as $100 billion. According to the coalition, the amount is a conservative estimate spread over 10 years. And the group says this cost will not be borne by Sudan alone. Only about half of the $100 billion will be lost by Sudan. The report calculates anywhere from $25-30 billion would be lost by neighbors Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda, due to decreased trade with the region. The amounts make up more than 30 percent of each nation's GDP.
The report also calculates that as much as $25 billion would be required over 10 years from the international community in the form of peacekeeping and humanitarian⁶ aid to manage the conflict. While an economic analysis looks cold in the face of potential war, Institute of Security Studies African Conflict Prevention Director Roba Sharamo said such analysis are often effective in persuading leaders. "Often politicians are driven by other interests," Sharamo said. "But I think the economic figures which are reflected in this study are quite critical in the sense that it really shows the reality of war might cost them, what peace might bring to them. It is important for all of them to exercise some sort of restraint."While the $100 billion price tag of war seems steep, the figures are based on current projections⁷ and do not even include the potential of an independent South Sudan. Many analysts⁸ in the region expect a newly independent South Sudan to immediately join the East African Community and rapidly increase trade with its neighbors. The region's vast deposits of oil are expected to be a major catalyst⁹ for the south's development. Countries in East Africa are also preparing for a boom in southern Sudan. Kenya has already secured funding for the construction of a multi-billion dollar port on its northern coast to export Sudanese oil. Uganda is also looking to build a pipeline¹⁰ and railway to the southern capital, Juba.
Standing¹¹ in the way of this economic boom is a renewed civil war between north and south. The referendum, being held January 9, is the final phase of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement which ended a 21-year civil war in 2005. While President Omar al-Bashir has promised to accept the results, delays in referendum registration¹² and difficult negotiations over the border and oil-sharing have prompted some northern officials to call for a delay in the vote.

1 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

2 protracted   

adj.拖延的；延长的v.拖延“protract”的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争，我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

4 unity   

n.团结，联合，统一；和睦，协调

参考例句：

• When we speak of unity,we do not mean unprincipled peace.所谓团结，并非一团和气。
• We must strengthen our unity in the face of powerful enemies.大敌当前，我们必须加强团结。

5 amicable   

adj.和平的，友好的；友善的

参考例句：

• The two nations reached an amicable agreement.两国达成了一项友好协议。
• The two nations settled their quarrel in an amicable way.两国以和睦友好的方式解决了他们的争端。

6 humanitarian   

n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者

参考例句：

• She has many humanitarian interests and contributes a lot to them.她拥有很多慈善事业，并作了很大的贡献。
• The British government has now suspended humanitarian aid to the area.英国政府现已暂停对这一地区的人道主义援助。

7 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 catalyst   

n.催化剂，造成变化的人或事

参考例句：

• A catalyst is a substance which speeds up a chemical reaction.催化剂是一种能加速化学反应的物质。
• The workers'demand for better conditions was a catalyst for social change.工人们要求改善工作条件促进了社会变革。

10 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

11 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

12 registration   

n.登记，注册，挂号

参考例句：

• Marriage without registration is not recognized by law.法律不承认未登记的婚姻。
• What's your registration number?你挂的是几号？