VOA英语2010年-Mideast Scholar: Chances of Mideast Peace 'S

The failure of the latest round of Middle East talks has left politicians and analysts² grappling over whether a peace agreement achievable in the near future. U.S. negotiator George Mitchell met separately with Israeli and Palestinian leaders this past week, saying the US remained committed to pursuing substantive³ talks.

Aaron David Miller⁴, Public Policy Scholar at the Washington D.C.-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Public Policy, is a former State Department analyst¹ and negotiator and the author of The Much Too Promised Land: America's Elusive⁵ Search for Arab-Israeli Peace. He told VOA reporter Cecily Hilleary that no matter what strategy the U.S. will attempt in coming months, the chances of "quick and easy progress" remain slim.

 

Aaron David MillerMiller: You have two basic problems. The first is an ownership problem. Neither the Israeli nor Palestinian leadership owns their own process. And until they do, until they are driven by prospects⁶ of pain and/or gain, to a situation where on the core issues - Jerusalem, borders, security and refugees - they're prepared to make the kinds of decisions, choices and concessions⁷, it strikes me that we're going to be wheel-spinning.

The second problem is the absence or lack of American credibility. I mean, these days, over the last several years, it seems that everybody says "no" to the United States without much cost and without much consequence, and a mediator⁸ really - an effective mediator - needs "street credibility," needs the respect and even the fear, at some point, of the powers with which it deals.

So I think that this is going to be a very long "movie." I think that the [U.S.] administration's approach is worth the effort right now, which is to conduct parallel talks on these big issues to see where the gaps are, what each side may be willing to do, and then consider if the gaps can be bridged. That's our assessment⁹. But all of that, it strikes me, is going to be very, very hard.

And in the meantime, the Israelis will continue to pursue their settlement policies, and the Palestinians are involved in another major distraction¹⁰, which is the effort to create the basis for what might be – although it's highly inadvisable - a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood.

Hilleary: Let me jump back. You say that the United States isn't credible¹¹, that it needs to be tough and inspire fear.? What could it have done in this latest round of talks that it did not do?

Miller: Well, let's first of all determine what it shouldn't have done. It shouldn't have identified a goal - a comprehensive freeze on settlements, including Jerusalem - that no Israeli government could ever have accepted.? And then when it became quite clear that no Israeli government was going to accept it, then either threaten and/or try to bribe¹² the Israelis into delivering a freeze. The whole policy of focusing on a settlement freeze is doomed¹³.

Hilleary: From the Palestinian perspective, though, that was the condition for resuming direct talks.

Miller: That's true, but direct talks, frankly¹⁴, are of limited utility. If you went back and looked at the record of American mediation¹⁵ over the last 40 years, what you'd find is that our successes - and there have only been three: Kissinger's disengagement diplomacy¹⁶ in the '70s, Jimmy Carter's Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Jim Baker's efforts to put together a Madrid Peace Conference - these all came as a consequence not of direct negotiations¹⁷, but of U.S. mediation - indirect talks.

So, the issue is not direct or indirect. The issue is whether or not the parties, the Israelis and the Palestinians, Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas, are prepared to make the kinds of choices that narrow the gaps sufficiently¹⁸ on the four core issues, which would allow a determined¹⁹ and smart American mediator to bridge those gaps.

And the answer to the first question so far, after 20 months, is "No, they're not."

The answer to the second question on the issue of U.S. mediation is a question mark.

But given the performance over the course of the last 20 months, a case can be made that the Americans aren't up to it.

1 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 substantive   

adj.表示实在的；本质的、实质性的；独立的；n.实词，实名词；独立存在的实体

参考例句：

• They plan to meet again in Rome very soon to begin substantive negotiations.他们计划不久在罗马再次会晤以开始实质性的谈判。
• A president needs substantive advice,but he also requires emotional succor. 一个总统需要实质性的建议，但也需要感情上的支持。

4 miller   

n.磨坊主

参考例句：

• Every miller draws water to his own mill.磨坊主都往自己磨里注水。
• The skilful miller killed millions of lions with his ski.技术娴熟的磨坊主用雪橇杀死了上百万头狮子。

5 elusive   

adj.难以表达(捉摸)的；令人困惑的；逃避的

参考例句：

• Try to catch the elusive charm of the original in translation.翻译时设法把握住原文中难以捉摸的风韵。
• Interpol have searched all the corners of the earth for the elusive hijackers.国际刑警组织已在世界各地搜查在逃的飞机劫持者。

6 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

7 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

8 mediator   

n.调解人，中介人

参考例句：

• He always takes the role of a mediator in any dispute.他总是在争论中充当调停人的角色。
• He will appear in the role of mediator.他将出演调停者。

9 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

10 distraction   

n.精神涣散，精神不集中，消遣，娱乐

参考例句：

• Total concentration is required with no distractions.要全神贯注，不能有丝毫分神。
• Their national distraction is going to the disco.他们的全民消遣就是去蹦迪。

11 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

12 bribe   

n.贿赂；v.向…行贿，买通

参考例句：

• He tried to bribe the policeman not to arrest him.他企图贿赂警察不逮捕他。
• He resolutely refused their bribe.他坚决不接受他们的贿赂。

13 doomed   

命定的

参考例句：

• The court doomed the accused to a long term of imprisonment. 法庭判处被告长期监禁。
• A country ruled by an iron hand is doomed to suffer. 被铁腕人物统治的国家定会遭受不幸的。

14 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

15 mediation   

n.调解

参考例句：

• The dispute was settled by mediation of the third country. 这场争端通过第三国的斡旋而得以解决。
• The dispute was settled by mediation. 经调解使争端得以解决。

16 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

17 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

18 sufficiently   

adv.足够地，充分地

参考例句：

• It turned out he had not insured the house sufficiently.原来他没有给房屋投足保险。
• The new policy was sufficiently elastic to accommodate both views.新政策充分灵活地适用两种观点。

19 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。