VOA英语2010年-Experts: US Afghan Strategy OK, But It's Sti

President Barack Obama's review of his strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, which he made public on Thursday, says the approach he announced a year ago is working. Still, the president acknowledged that progress is, in his words, "fragile and reversible."

And while officials say the effort is on track to meet key targets in 2011 and 2014, experts say it is still early to make definitive¹ pronouncements about whether the strategy is really working.

There were no real surprises in the president's strategy review. He says that a year after he announced it, and fewer than six months after the additional troops he deployed² arrived, the strategy is beginning to work.

"We are on track to achieve our goals," said President Obama. "We are making considerable gains toward our military objectives."

But the president also acknowledged that the gains are difficult and fragile, and he said more work is also needed on governance and economic development. He also said Pakistan must do more to eliminate insurgent³ safe havens⁴ on its side of the border.

As the president spoke⁵, U.S. forces were close to the end of their deadliest year in Afghanistan, with nearly 500 killed and 5,000 wounded.

The president had promised to review his strategy at this juncture⁶, in part to take a different approach from his predecessor⁷, President George W. Bush, who was accused of "staying the course" with his Iraq strategy long after it became clear to many experts that it was not working.

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But now some of those same experts say President Obama's review came too early.

Michael O'Hanlon follows defense⁸ issues at the Brookings Institution. "It's too soon to expect major results," said O'Hanlon. "So this really is an interim⁹ review. There could be some modest policy changes that come out of it, but nothing fundamental about the strategy is likely to change."

Experts say progress is difficult to make and nearly as hard to measure in Afghanistan, with its harsh terrain¹⁰, entrenched¹¹ corruption¹², complex tribal¹³ structure and strong Taliban influence. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says that for now, any progress must be measured only at the most local levels, and the job of military units is to expand the new small zones of stability, and improve the Afghan forces' ability to sustain them.

"The whole idea in the military strategy is to halt the momentum¹⁴ of the Taliban, reverse it, degrade their capabilities¹⁵ and deny them control of major population centers," said Gates. "At the same time, you build the capacity of the Afghan national security forces to take on a degraded Taliban."

No one can say at this stage of the process whether that will actually happen, or when. But President Obama is committed to beginning a U.S. troop drawdown next July, and he and other NATO leaders have set the end of 2014 as the target date for ending their troops' combat role in Afghanistan.

A former foreign policy adviser¹⁶ to Republican Senator John McCain, Richard Fontaine, now an analyst¹⁷ at the Center for a New American Security, is skeptical¹⁸ about the first deadline, and cautious about the second one.

"I don't think that by July, 2011 we're going to be able to see such dramatic successes that we're going to be able to draw down American troops in any significant fashion," said Fontaine. "By 2014, I think we will either know whether we have made very significant progress and can turn this over to the Afghans, or whether progress is simply impossible, in which case we're going to have to make some very tough choices about what comes next."

In fact, officials say if progress stalls and current gains are reversed, they want to know much sooner than 2014. There will be another American review in a few months, to prepare for the initial troop withdrawal¹⁹, and a more extensive one at the end of next year.

The 2010 White House Afghan strategy review describes a situation pretty much as had been expected at this juncture - progress but still problems. President Obama, the congress and allied²⁰ governments will be watching carefully for evidence of continuing and less fragile progress as they reevaluate their strategy and their troop levels during the coming year.

1 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

2 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

3 insurgent   

adj.叛乱的，起事的；n.叛乱分子

参考例句：

• Faruk says they are threatened both by insurgent and government forces.法鲁克说，他们受到暴乱分子和政府军队的双重威胁。
• The insurgent mob assembled at the gate of the city park.叛变的暴徒聚在市立公园的门口。

4 havens   

n.港口，安全地方( haven的名词复数 )v.港口，安全地方( haven的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Your twenty havens would back out at the last minute anyhow. 你那二十个避难所到了最后一分钟也要不认帐。 来自辞典例句
• Using offshore havens to avoid taxes and investor protections. 使用海面的港口避免税和投资者保护。 来自互联网

5 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

6 juncture   

n.时刻，关键时刻，紧要关头

参考例句：

• The project is situated at the juncture of the new and old urban districts.该项目位于新老城区交界处。
• It is very difficult at this juncture to predict the company's future.此时很难预料公司的前景。

7 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

8 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

9 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

10 terrain   

n.地面，地形，地图

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• He knows the terrain of this locality like the back of his hand.他对这一带的地形了如指掌。

11 entrenched   

adj.确立的，不容易改的(风俗习惯)

参考例句：

• Television seems to be firmly entrenched as the number one medium for national advertising.电视看来要在全国广告媒介中牢固地占据头等位置。
• If the enemy dares to attack us in these entrenched positions,we will make short work of them.如果敌人胆敢进攻我们固守的阵地，我们就消灭他们。

12 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

13 tribal   

adj.部族的，种族的

参考例句：

• He became skilled in several tribal lingoes.他精通几种部族的语言。
• The country was torn apart by fierce tribal hostilities.那个国家被部落间的激烈冲突弄得四分五裂。

14 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

15 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

16 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

17 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

18 skeptical   

adj.怀疑的，多疑的

参考例句：

• Others here are more skeptical about the chances for justice being done.这里的其他人更为怀疑正义能否得到伸张。
• Her look was skeptical and resigned.她的表情是将信将疑而又无可奈何。

19 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

20 allied   

adj.协约国的；同盟国的

参考例句：

• Britain was allied with the United States many times in history.历史上英国曾多次与美国结盟。
• Allied forces sustained heavy losses in the first few weeks of the campaign.同盟国在最初几周内遭受了巨大的损失。