VOA标准英语2010年-Is Iran a Military Dictatorship?

A picture made available by the official website of Iranian Supreme¹ Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows him touring "Jamran," Iran's first domestically built warship², during its unveiling ceremony at an undisclosed location in southern Iran on 19 February 2010.

“Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship,” warned U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking last week (16 February) in Doha, Qatar.  Clinton raised new concerns about the power of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps³, the growing military elite⁴ that now controls Iran’s nuclear program.

Growing Power of Revolutionary Guard Corps

London-based Iranian journalist Ali Reza Nourizadeh agrees with Secretary Clinton’s concern about Iran’s emerging power structure.  Nourizadeh, who directs the Center for Arab and Iranian Studies, says since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office, Iran has been moving steadily⁵ toward a military dictatorship.

“Half the ministers were either directly coming from the Revolutionary Guard or they had some connection with the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence unit,” Nourizadeh said.  He estimates that 90 members of the Iranian Parliament are generals, colonels, or former generals in the Revolutionary Guard Corps.  “In the political arena⁶, most of the big jobs are held by Revolutionary Guards,” he added.  “They are everywhere, and they have financial support from the government.”

Doubts about Iranian Military Dictatorship on “Arab Street”

But Arab journalist Nadia Bilbassy said that view is not widely held in the Arab world.  The senior news correspondent with the Middle East Broadcasting Center noted⁷ that, while Arab leaders are alarmed by Iran’s nuclear program and the growing power of the Revolutionary Guard, most people in the Arab world do not view Iran as a military dictatorship.

“There is a ‘disconnect’ between the government and the people,” Bilbassy explained.  She rates President Ahmadinejad’s popularity on the Arab Street as “medium to high.”  “People see Iran as a country that supports movements like Hamas and Hezbollah, which are seen as indigenous⁸ movements fighting the Israeli occupation in the Palestinian territories and in southern Lebanon,” Bilbassy noted, “but in general I think they don’t look at it as a military dictatorship.”

Historical Factors in Growing Influence of the Guard

However, Nourizadeh warns that the history of the Revolutionary Guard’s activities in the region is itself a cause for suspicion.  “We should not forget that the Revolutionary Guard – at least for the past 25 years – was responsible for training certain groups in Arab countries.  Look at Yemen!” he urged.  “Hundreds of Yemeni Shi’a received their training from the Revolutionary Guard,” Nourizadeh said.  Furthermore, in Lebanon, Hezbollah is the main supplier of weapons, Nourizadeh noted.  “And look at Palestine!   The Revolutionary Guard trained Hamas.”   In Iraq also, the Guard trained hundreds of fighters, he said.  “In Afghanistan, even now it is obvious that the Revolutionary Guard has some links to al-Qaida and some al-Qaida leaders are living in Iran,” according to Nourizadeh.

Iranian Nuclear Program

As Secretary of State Clinton noted, the Revolutionary Guard has become the keeper of Iran’s nuclear program.  And according to Bilbassy, that makes its nuclear program a serious threat to its Arab neighbors, especially the Gulf⁹ states.  “I think privately¹⁰ everybody is worried about Iran’s capability¹¹ of developing nuclear weapons, and nobody believes its intention is to have them for peaceful purposes,” Bilbassy said.  According to her, “Everybody knows that Iran is seeking a role of leadership in the region.”  Nuclear weapons represent what she calls the “ultimate power.”

However, the nature of the current nuclear threat from Iran has not yet been determined¹², Bilbassy said.  “Many experts, including a U.N. report that was leaked to the press, said that Iran’s capability is very much exaggerated,” she notes.  On the other end of the spectrum¹³, Israel argues that Iran’s nuclear program represents an existential threat.  “But the bottom line,” Bilbassy said, “is that nobody knows because there is no intelligence on the ground.”

Iranian Political Opposition¹⁴ Movement

Assuming that Iran does intend to develop nuclear weapons, Nourizadeh asks, how then should the West deal with Tehran?  He suggests that one of the most effective ways might be to encourage Iran’s internal opposition.  “I think morally supporting the Green Movement would be very effective, and it would help bring about rapid changes in Iran.”

But Bilbassy strongly disagrees.  “It would be the kiss of death for them, and it would give a pretext¹⁵ for the government in Iran to point to interference by the Western powers, particularly the United States and Britain,” she argues.

Military Strike vs. Diplomatic Negotiations¹⁶

Both Bilbassy and Nourizadeh recommend against the use of a military strike against suspected nuclear targets in Iran.  Nourizadeh said he thinks the military option would be “counter-effective” for the United States, for Iran’s neighbors, and for the Iranian people.  Bilbassy suggests that a military strike could be catastrophic for Iran’s Arab neighbors.  “They will shy away from any possibility of a military strike against Iran because that would unleash¹⁷ unpredictable consequences that would set the whole region on fire, and everybody knows that,” Bilbassy said.  She notes that the situation poses a serious dilemma¹⁸ for the West.  “What do they do?” she asks.  “The military option is not really an option, and negotiations are not going anywhere.”
 
Both Bilbassy and Nourizadeh agree that the most effective way to influence Iran’s leadership is through the use of targeted economic sanctions.  To do that, they recommend non-stop lobbying for China’s support in the U.N. Security Council.   Thus far, however, Beijing has resisted more stringent¹⁹ sanctions against Iran and is continuing to urge further negotiations to resolve the international standoff.
 
Meanwhile, Secretary Clinton says she hopes to see a U.N. resolution on new sanctions against Iran in the next 30 to 60 days.  She told U.S. lawmakers this week (24 February) that the United States has gained greater international support for sanctions because of the Obama administration’s diplomatic efforts to engage Iran.
 

1 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

2 warship   

n.军舰，战舰

参考例句：

• He is serving on a warship in the Pacific.他在太平洋海域的一艘军舰上服役。
• The warship was making towards the pier.军舰正驶向码头。

3 corps   

n.(通信等兵种的)部队；(同类作的)一组

参考例句：

• The medical corps were cited for bravery in combat.医疗队由于在战场上的英勇表现而受嘉奖。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

4 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

5 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

6 arena   

n.竞技场，运动场所；竞争场所，舞台

参考例句：

• She entered the political arena at the age of 25. 她25岁进入政界。
• He had not an adequate arena for the exercise of his talents.他没有充分发挥其才能的场所。

7 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

8 indigenous   

adj.土产的，土生土长的，本地的

参考例句：

• Each country has its own indigenous cultural tradition.每个国家都有自己本土的文化传统。
• Indians were the indigenous inhabitants of America.印第安人是美洲的土著居民。

9 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

10 privately   

adv.以私人的身份，悄悄地，私下地

参考例句：

• Some ministers admit privately that unemployment could continue to rise.一些部长私下承认失业率可能继续升高。
• The man privately admits that his motive is profits.那人私下承认他的动机是为了牟利。

11 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

12 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

13 spectrum   

n.谱，光谱，频谱；范围，幅度，系列

参考例句：

• This is a kind of atomic spectrum.这是一种原子光谱。
• We have known much of the constitution of the solar spectrum.关于太阳光谱的构成，我们已了解不少。

14 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

15 pretext   

n.借口，托词

参考例句：

• He used his headache as a pretext for not going to school.他借口头疼而不去上学。
• He didn't attend that meeting under the pretext of sickness.他以生病为借口，没参加那个会议。

16 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

17 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

18 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

19 stringent   

adj.严厉的；令人信服的；银根紧的

参考例句：

• Financiers are calling for a relaxation of these stringent measures.金融家呼吁对这些严厉的措施予以放宽。
• Some of the conditions in the contract are too stringent.合同中有几项条件太苛刻。