VOA标准英语2011--Glimpsing the Future on Climate Change

Glimpsing the Future on Climate Change

 

There have been many warnings that climate change could make it more difficult to grow food. But a new tool may allow farmers to glimpse the future and prepare for what lies ahead.

Scientists say climate change may significantly alter growing conditions for most farmers. But that doesn’t mean those conditions will be unknown or unexpected. They say there are plenty of examples of how farmers have already adapted to higher temperatures.

Researchers at the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change have released a report called: Climate Analogues¹ – Finding Tomorrow’s Agriculture Today.

“Climate analogues are a way of finding the future today. We talk about how climate will change and it’s quite an abstract idea to say, well, this place will be two degrees warmer. But these climate analogues are an interesting way of actually seeing what that really feels like. So, you can find the future of a site when temperature is higher, for example, or precipitation is different, and you can find that today somewhere else,” said Dr. Andy Jarvis of CGIAR.

It will be here like it is there

By 2030, scientists predict Durban, South Africa will have a climate very similar to that of Argentina and Uruguay. The South American countries have already adapted to growing food at higher temperatures.

For example, researchers studied temperature changes projected to occur by 2030 for Shanghai, China, and Los Angeles, California and Durban, South Africa, site of the latest U.N. climate change conference.

“If you look for Durban’s 2030 climate, you can actually find quite a large area that has very similar climates to what we project for 2030 for Durban in Argentina and Uruguay,” said Jarvis.

That information could be very valuable to farmers.

“Durban, for example, has a lot of very high productivity sugar cane² around it. There are also a lot of farmers who depend on maize³ for subsistence. And so you can go to Argentina and Uruguay where they have established sugar cane and established maize crops and understand really what is it that they’re doing that makes them well adapted to their climate. And so that knowledge can then feed into farmers in Durban and help them adapt,” he said.

The climate analogues say that the soybean growing area near Shanghai will correspond to major soybean areas in the eastern United States, Argentina and South Africa.

The information can be used to help ensure food security, especially with the population expected to soar in the coming decades.

“You have climate change affecting our ability to produce food, but at the same time population [is] on the increase. We just went past 7 billion. Projections⁴ for 9 billion in 2050. It’s not just population increase, but it’s changing consumer patterns, as well. So, the consumption of milk and meat, for example, is on the increase in countries like China. So that’s putting tremendous demands on the food system,” he said.

Farmers need to adapt

Jarvis said there are no magic solutions to climate change, so governments need to reach a legally binding⁵ agreement on greenhouse gas emissions⁶. However, Jarvis says that’s not enough. Farmers need to adapt, especially smallholder farmers.

“Smallholder poor farmers in Africa are those that are most vulnerable. They have [the] least capacity to adapt. Ironically, they’re the ones that are least really responsible for climate change, but the ones that are going to be most affected,” he said.

Jarvis added that farmers are on the frontlines of climate change, adding he never met one who doubted climate change was taking place.

1 analogues   

相似物( analogue的名词复数 )； 类似物； 类比； 同源词

参考例句：

• A vegetarian gets protein not from meat but from its analogues. 素食者所摄取的蛋白质不是来自肉类而是来自近似肉类的食物。
• Moreover, it tends to foster the human qualities that I admire most-courage and its analogues. 不但如此，它还能培养我最景仰的那些德性-勇敢和诸如此类的东西。

2 cane   

n.手杖，细长的茎，藤条；v.以杖击，以藤编制的

参考例句：

• This sugar cane is quite a sweet and juicy.这甘蔗既甜又多汁。
• English schoolmasters used to cane the boys as a punishment.英国小学老师过去常用教鞭打男学生作为惩罚。

3 maize   

n.玉米

参考例句：

• There's a field planted with maize behind the house.房子后面有一块玉米地。
• We can grow sorghum or maize on this plot.这块地可以种高粱或玉米。

4 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

5 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

6 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。