VOA标准英语2011--Intelligence Lapse on Egypt Debated

The sudden eruption¹ of mass anti-government protests in Egypt seemingly caught most people by surprise, including U.S. and other Western intelligence agencies. The turn of events has sparked questions about whether the United States experienced an "intelligence failure." But it is extraordinarily² difficult for spy agencies to predict specific events.
Former and current intelligence officials dispute the notion raised by some politicians and outside analysts⁴ that the United States suffered some sort of an intelligence failure on Egypt.
Former CIA Director Michael Hayden says the intelligence community repeatedly briefed policymakers that the situation in Egypt was spiraling downward.
"It was quite clear that the current political structure in Egypt was brittle⁵ and unsustainable, that it was heading towards a crisis, that the pace towards the crisis would be accelerated by [Egyptian President Hosni] Mubarak's age and the question of succession," he said. "Now, how much more does a policymaker need to know in order to believe that he needs to begin to look at this situation and begin to develop a plan for it?"
Emile Nakhleh, who was director of the CIA's Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program and personally briefed Hayden on Egypt, says those meetings were quite specific about the growing pressures on the Mubarak government.
"We had said in those briefings that once different centers of power within the society coalesced⁶ - that is, secularists and Islamists and liberals and conservatives coalesced against the regime - then the regime will be in trouble. Now, of course, we could not pinpoint⁷ the specific time and specific catalyst⁸. But I think those conditions were laid bare to our policymakers," he said.
Policymakers' frustration⁹ with intelligence performance most often comes when events catch them without warning, such as the 2001 terrorist attack on the United States that has widely been labeled an intelligence failure. Now, some politicians say U.S. intelligence agencies had a similar lapse¹⁰ when they failed to offer specific warnings about Egypt.
Some of the State Department cables from Cairo to Washington, released by the online activist¹¹ website WikiLeaks, show that U.S. embassies were aware of the long-simmering discontent in Egypt. The cables detail deepening public frustration among Egyptians over joblessness, high prices and lack of political reform.
A March 2008 cable from the U.S. embassy in Cairo labels Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his defense¹² minister, Mohammad Hussein Tantawi, as "aged¹³ and change-resistant" and lacking the "energy, inclination¹⁴, or world view to do anything differently." A January 2010 cable said "frustrated¹⁵ political activists¹⁶" were calling for a post-Mubarak transitional caretaker government, but called such a scenario¹⁷ "unlikely."
But intelligence professionals say the CIA and its sister agencies are not soothsayers. Former CIA senior Middle East analyst³ Paul Pillar says policymakers and the public have had inflated¹⁸ expectations of intelligence agencies' powers of prediction since the earliest days of the CIA in 1947.
"They are driven by, number one, a belief that if we can do so much as we've done overseas, we ought to be able to figure out what's going on in a foreign country - that's pretty simple, isn't it? And, number two, a reflexive need for explaining untoward¹⁹ events or difficult events, or especially really bad events - you know, terrorist attacks or revolutions that go the wrong way - by thinking that there's some problem here where some part of the bureaucracy screwed up, and that if we just fix the problem this isn't going to happen again," he said.
Former CIA Director Hayden points out that spontaneous events such as the unrest in Egypt are difficult, if not impossible, to predict. "What happened in Egypt wasn't the product of a long thought-out plan that had been hatched over an extended period of time by conscious actors. It had more the effect of a spontaneous combustion²⁰. Now, one could predict that events in Tunisia would affect events in Egypt. But it wasn't as if this was a long-term plan sitting in somebody's safe waiting to be purloined²¹ or learned through some sort of agent contact or signals intercept," he said.
In December, a young man in Tunisia set himself ablaze²², touching²³ off a wave of demonstrations²⁴ that ultimately led to the government's collapse²⁵. In many analysts' eyes, it was the fire that lit a spark that spread to Egypt and other Arab countries.

1 eruption   

n.火山爆发；（战争等）爆发；（疾病等）发作

参考例句：

• The temple was destroyed in the violent eruption of 1470 BC.庙宇在公元前1470年猛烈的火山爆发中摧毁了。
• The eruption of a volcano is spontaneous.火山的爆发是自发的。

2 extraordinarily   

adv.格外地；极端地

参考例句：

• She is an extraordinarily beautiful girl.她是个美丽非凡的姑娘。
• The sea was extraordinarily calm that morning.那天清晨，大海出奇地宁静。

3 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 brittle   

adj.易碎的；脆弱的；冷淡的；(声音)尖利的

参考例句：

• The pond was covered in a brittle layer of ice.池塘覆盖了一层易碎的冰。
• She gave a brittle laugh.她冷淡地笑了笑。

6 coalesced   

v.联合，合并( coalesce的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The puddles had coalesced into a small stream. 地面上水洼子里的水汇流成了一条小溪。
• The views of party leaders coalesced to form a coherent policy. 党的领导人的各种观点已统一为一致的政策。 来自辞典例句

7 pinpoint   

vt.准确地确定；用针标出…的精确位置

参考例句：

• It is difficult to pinpoint when water problems of the modern age began.很难准确地指出，现代用水的问题是什么时候出现的。
• I could pinpoint his precise location on a map.我能在地图上指明他的准确位置。

8 catalyst   

n.催化剂，造成变化的人或事

参考例句：

• A catalyst is a substance which speeds up a chemical reaction.催化剂是一种能加速化学反应的物质。
• The workers'demand for better conditions was a catalyst for social change.工人们要求改善工作条件促进了社会变革。

9 frustration   

n.挫折，失败，失效，落空

参考例句：

• He had to fight back tears of frustration.他不得不强忍住失意的泪水。
• He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration.他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。

10 lapse   

n.过失，流逝，失效，抛弃信仰，间隔；vi.堕落，停止，失效，流逝；vt.使失效

参考例句：

• The incident was being seen as a serious security lapse.这一事故被看作是一次严重的安全疏忽。
• I had a lapse of memory.我记错了。

11 activist   

n.活动分子，积极分子

参考例句：

• He's been a trade union activist for many years.多年来他一直是工会的积极分子。
• He is a social activist in our factory.他是我厂的社会活动积极分子。

12 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

13 aged   

adj.年老的，陈年的

参考例句：

• He had put on weight and aged a little.他胖了，也老点了。
• He is aged,but his memory is still good.他已年老，然而记忆力还好。

14 inclination   

n.倾斜；点头；弯腰；斜坡；倾度；倾向；爱好

参考例句：

• She greeted us with a slight inclination of the head.她微微点头向我们致意。
• I did not feel the slightest inclination to hurry.我没有丝毫着急的意思。

15 frustrated   

adj.挫败的，失意的，泄气的v.使不成功( frustrate的过去式和过去分词 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧

参考例句：

• It's very easy to get frustrated in this job. 这个工作很容易令人懊恼。
• The bad weather frustrated all our hopes of going out. 恶劣的天气破坏了我们出行的愿望。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 activists   

n.（政治活动的）积极分子，活动家( activist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His research work was attacked by animal rights activists . 他的研究受到了动物权益维护者的抨击。
• Party activists with lower middle class pedigrees are numerous. 党的激进分子中有很多出身于中产阶级下层。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

18 inflated   

adj.（价格）飞涨的；（通货）膨胀的；言过其实的；充了气的v.使充气（于轮胎、气球等）( inflate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）膨胀；（使）通货膨胀；物价上涨

参考例句：

• He has an inflated sense of his own importance. 他自视过高。
• They all seem to take an inflated view of their collective identity. 他们对自己的集体身份似乎都持有一种夸大的看法。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 untoward   

adj.不利的，不幸的，困难重重的

参考例句：

• Untoward circumstances prevent me from being with you on this festive occasion.有些不幸的事件使我不能在这欢庆的时刻和你在一起。
• I'll come if nothing untoward happens.我要是没有特殊情况一定来。

20 combustion   

n.燃烧；氧化；骚动

参考例句：

• We might be tempted to think of combustion.我们也许会联想到氧化。
• The smoke formed by their combustion is negligible.由它燃烧所生成的烟是可忽略的。

21 purloined   

v.偷窃( purloin的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• You have chosen align yourself with those who have purloined the very seat of your existence. 你们选择了将自己与那些盗取了你们存在之真正席位的人相校准。 来自互联网

22 ablaze   

adj.着火的，燃烧的；闪耀的，灯火辉煌的

参考例句：

• The main street was ablaze with lights in the evening.晚上，那条主要街道灯火辉煌。
• Forests are sometimes set ablaze by lightning.森林有时因雷击而起火。

23 touching   

adj.动人的，使人感伤的

参考例句：

• It was a touching sight.这是一幅动人的景象。
• His letter was touching.他的信很感人。

24 demonstrations   

证明( demonstration的名词复数 )； 表明； 表达； 游行示威

参考例句：

• Lectures will be interspersed with practical demonstrations. 讲课中将不时插入实际示范。
• The new military government has banned strikes and demonstrations. 新的军人政府禁止罢工和示威活动。

25 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。