VOA标准英语2011--Economists: Second US Recession, If It H

Economists²: Second US Recession, If It Hits, Could Hit Hard

Some economists are worried that the United States is poised³ for another recession. They warn that a so-called "double-dip," if it comes, could be more painful for average Americans than the 2007-2008 recession. Jobs, incomes, output and industrial production are all weaker now than they were then. One sector⁴ that has been hit especially hard is housing.
Mark Hudson is a real estate agent in Washington, D.C., one of the areas that has been least affected⁵ by the housing and construction bust⁶. He peruses⁷ the day’s list of homes for sale.
“We are down about 40 percent from June 2005 to June 2011 in home sales. That affects every potential area of the economy everywhere and we are, frankly⁸, being close to Washington, in better shape then a lot of the areas of the country," he said.
One of the homes Hudson is currently trying to sell is in a historic district in a suburb of Washington.
He says he’ll sell the house for much less than he would have several years ago. And that reduced housing prices have a real impact on peoples’ personal wealth.
“If they had sold it a few years ago they would have cleared 'X,' now they are going to clear $100,000 to $150,000 less. That is money they could use in retirement⁹ or for buying a new house or for putting their kids in college, so it absolutely affects their personal wealth,” Hudson said.
Robust¹⁰ home sales and construction can help drive an economic recovery. But economist¹ Karen Dynan says that probably won’t happen this time around.
“The real issue now is that demand is so weak because people don’t want to buy homes when their income prospects¹¹ are so weak. When they are worried that house prices are going to fall further and until we can see that demand rise again we are not going to see home-building rise in a way that is contributing to economic growth,” Dynan said.
Many economists say that fear of the unknown is feeding consumers’ hesitancy. That fear has rocked global financial markets, following a downgrade of U.S. Treasury¹² debt and a long-running and highly fractious political debate over raising the nation’s debt ceiling.
“Pessimism can be self-fulfilling. If a consumer wakes up one day and is worried about the future and doesn’t go out and spend, then retailers¹³ are going to see weak demand and they are not going to hire as much and income will weaken and that in turn will leader consumers to have even less inclination¹⁴ to spend,” Dynan said.
Hudson says that with his personal income down by more than 50 percent, he’s certainly spending less. And he’s worried about what’s to come.
“If there’s a recession, I don’t know what I would do because I have cut as much as I could, I believe. I guess I could do more but it would be difficult. I have cut as much as I can at this point, so it’s kind of a scary question,” Hudson said.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

4 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

5 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

6 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

7 peruses   

v.读（某篇文字）( peruse的第三人称单数 )；（尤指）细阅；审阅；匆匆读或心不在焉地浏览（某篇文字）

参考例句：

8 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

9 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

10 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

11 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

12 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

13 retailers   

零售商，零售店( retailer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• High street retailers reported a marked increase in sales before Christmas. 商业街的零售商报告说圣诞节前销售量显著提高。
• Retailers have a statutory duty to provide goods suitable for their purpose. 零售商有为他们提供符合要求的货品的法定义务。

14 inclination   

n.倾斜；点头；弯腰；斜坡；倾度；倾向；爱好

参考例句：

• She greeted us with a slight inclination of the head.她微微点头向我们致意。
• I did not feel the slightest inclination to hurry.我没有丝毫着急的意思。