VOA标准英语2013--OPEC Sees Oil Demand Decline Again

 

OPEC Sees Oil Demand Decline Again

Demand for crude oil from OPEC countries is expected to decline again next year, as independent producers, especially the United States, increase their supplies.

Times are gradually changing for OPEC, the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries. Its own surveys show how the global market is shifting as oil production increases.

“They calculate supply from non-OPEC producers and they calculate global demand and as a result they calculate what’s left of the pie for OPEC. The problem is what’s left of the pie is shrinking next year because supply from independent producers – in particular the United States, but not only – is rising faster than demand. So, essentially¹ that leaves less of the market for OPEC next year,” said Richard Swan, editorial director for global oil news at Platts, a leading provider of information on energy, petrochemicals, metals and agriculture.

OPEC estimates demand for its crude oil next year will be around 29.6 million barrels a day. Swan said that’s about one million barrels a day below current production.

“Which is potentially problematic for them. It implies that at current production rates they’re over-supplying the market,” he said.

The most important thing for OPEC, he said, is the price of barrel of oil.

“It’s the single figure which determines their export revenues and actually is the main contributor their budget, so that their governments have revenues in order to spend money. Now the price of oil has been very steady, so they’re happy with that.”

However, Swan said OPEC is not as happy when it looks at other factors.

“If they look without the price, the actual supply/demand fundamentals are not great because they’ve got this boom in production going on coming out of the shale² oil in the United States and also the heavy oil sands in Canada and these kinds of developments. They’re going up so fast that they’re talking all of the incremental³ demand in the market. So that market share argument is not great for OPEC, but as long as the price is over a hundred dollars they’ll be happy,” he said.

Non-OPEC production is expected to significantly rise next year by about 1.2 million barrels a day. The U.S. and Canada will produce nearly all of that. The U.S. oil boom is due in large part to the hydraulic⁴ fracturing technique, commonly called fracking. It pumps chemicals underground to fracture shale formations, releasing more natural gas and oil. The industry says the method is safe for the environment, but critics say it can poison drinking water.

Swan said, “I think the U.S. has been at the forefront of fracking in almost every sense. It’s been at the forefront of the technological⁵ advances by the oil companies and maybe of the environmental fears being raised by people as well.”

He said there are estimates of significant shale oil resources in many other countries, including Britain, Poland and Ukraine. But some are taking a wait-and-see approach as to how fracking will play out in the U.S.

One country directly affected⁶ by increased U.S. oil production is Nigeria, an OPEC member.

“Nigeria has lost its biggest customer – the United States. Almost the first oil that’s being knocked out of the import kind of mix is by the booming shale is the kind of oil that Nigeria produces – this light, sweet crude oil. That’s what’s not required anymore by the refineries⁷ down in Texas and Louisiana. So that’s being pushed out. Nigeria is having to find new markets for its oil,” he said.

Algeria, another OPEC member, finds itself in a similar situation, with its market in the U.S. cut in half. China is a potential customer. That’s where fellow OPEC member Angola is doing a lot of business.

“Angola produces quite a mixture of different crudes, but actually it sells more oil historically to Asia, in particular, to China, anyway. So it’s sort of got a better link to consumer countries,” he said.

Swan added that China’s demand for crude oil is not expected to be as huge in 2014 as it was during the last decade. But the Platts’ editorial director for global oil news said it will still lead the way in oil demand. 

The increased U.S. production is in line with its long-term strategy to reduce its dependence⁸ on foreign oil.

1 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

2 shale   

n.页岩，泥板岩

参考例句：

• We can extract oil from shale.我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
• Most of the rock in this mountain is shale.这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。

3 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

4 hydraulic   

adj.水力的；水压的，液压的；水力学的

参考例句：

• The boat has no fewer than five hydraulic pumps.这艘船配有不少于5个液压泵。
• A group of apprentics were operating the hydraulic press.一群学徒正在开动水压机。

5 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

6 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

7 refineries   

精炼厂( refinery的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The efforts on closedown and suspension of small sugar refineries, small saccharin refineries and small paper mills are also being carried out in steps. 关停小糖厂、小糖精厂、小造纸厂的工作也已逐步展开。
• Hence the sitting of refineries is at a distance from population centres. 所以，炼油厂的厂址总在远离人口集中的地方。

8 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。