意大利民粹主义威胁欧盟未来

 　　Europe’s fightback against populism was going well for a couple of hours.

　　欧洲对民粹主义的反击取得了几个小时的胜利。

　　On Sunday afternoon, it emerged that the far-right candidate had lost the Austrian presidential election.

　　上周日下午，有消息称，极右翼候选人在奥地利总统大选中折戟。

　　But the good news from Austria was drowned out by bad news that same evening, from the other side of the Alps.

　　但当晚来自阿尔卑斯山另一侧的的坏消息吞噬了奥地利的这个好消息。

　　Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, had lost his referendum on constitutional reform and confirmed that he will resign.

　　意大利总理马泰奥.伦齐(Matteo Renzi)在宪法改革公投中失利，并证实他将辞职。

　　The consequences for Europe of Italy’s referendum result are not as obviously dramatic as those of Britain’s referendum in June.

　　意大利公投结果对欧洲造成的影响不像今年6月英国退欧公投那样引人注目。

　　The British voted to leave the EU.

　　英国人最终投票决定脱离欧盟(EU)。

　　The Italians have simply rejected some complex constitutional changes, which many experts regarded as ill conceived in the first place.

　　意大利人则反对一些复杂的宪法改革，很多专家认为这些改革从一开始就考虑不周。

　　And yet Brexit and the Renzi resignation do form part of the same story.

　　然而英国退欧和伦齐辞职却是同一个故事的一部分。

　　The European project is under unprecedented¹ strain.

　　欧洲一体化正面临空前压力。

　　Britain’s decision to leave is the most striking evidence of this.

　　英国决定脱欧就是最明显的证据。

　　But, in the long run, the unfolding crisis in Italy could pose a more severe threat to the survival of the EU.

　　但长期而言，意大利正在爆发的危机可能会给欧盟的生存带来更严重的威胁。

　　The reasons for this are political, economic and even geographic².

　　其原因有政治的、经济的、甚至地理的。

　　Italy, unlike Britain, is one of the six founding members of the EU.

　　与英国不同，意大利是欧盟6个创始成员国之一。

　　The original European Economic Community was founded through the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957.

　　原来的欧洲经济共同体(European Economic Community)是通过1957年签订的《罗马条约》(Treaty of Rome)创建的。

　　While the British were always the most Eurosceptic of the big EU nations, the Italians were traditionally the most enthusiastic unifiers.

　　英国一直是欧盟大国中最疑欧的，但意大利传统上是最热情的统一者。

　　But attitudes to the EU in Italy have changed profoundly — in response to the country’s long economic stagnation³, the euro crisis and fears over illegal migration⁴.

　　但意大利对欧盟的态度发生了巨大变化，这是该国经济长期停滞、欧元危机以及对非法移民的担忧的结果。

　　It is hardly surprising that Italian voters are disillusioned⁵ with the status quo.

　　意大利选民对现状感到失望，这毫不令人意外。

　　Italy has lost at least 25 per cent of its industrial production since the financial crisis of 2008.

　　自2008年金融危机以来，意大利工业产量至少萎缩了25%。

　　Youth unemployment stands at almost 40 per cent.

　　年轻人失业率维持在近40%的水平。

　　Unsurprisingly, many Italians associate the advent⁶ of the euro with a near-depression.

　　难怪很多意大利人将欧元的问世与几近萧条联系在一起。

　　Indeed, some economists⁷ believe the euro has been disastrous⁸ for Italy’s competitiveness, taking away the tools of currency devaluation and creating a deflationary environment that increases the debt burden.

　　实际上，一些经济学家认为，欧元对于意大利的竞争力是灾难性的，它夺走了汇率贬值工具并创造了一个通缩环境，加重了债务负担。

　　Against this grim backdrop, it is possible that Mr Renzi will be one of the last Italian prime ministers to represent his country’s traditional pro-European stance.

　　在这种悲观背景下，伦齐有可能成为最后一批代表意大利传统亲欧立场的意大利总理之一。

　　Of late, even he had taken to Brussels-bashing — expressing understandable disillusionment with a lack of help with the hundreds of thousands of refugees landing on Italian shores.

　　最近，他甚至开始抨击欧盟——欧盟在解决抵达意大利海岸的数十万难民问题上没有提供帮助，他对此表达了可以理解的失望。

　　The Renzi government has also chafed⁹ against the economic austerity prescribed in Berlin and Brussels.

　　伦齐政府还对德国和欧盟提出的经济紧缩方案感到愤怒。

　　Nonetheless, Mr Renzi remained basically pro-European.

　　然而，从根本上来说，伦齐仍是亲欧的。

　　That is not true of the opposition¹⁰ parties that are now waiting in the wings.

　　而蠢蠢欲动的反对党派则不是这样。

　　The Five Star Movement, led by comedian¹¹ Beppe Grillo, played a prominent role in defeating Mr Renzi.

　　由喜剧演员贝佩.格里洛(Beppe Grillo)领导的五星运动党(Five Star Movement)在击败伦齐方面发挥了突出作用。

　　Five Star is adamant¹² in its demand that Italy regain¹³ sovereignty from Brussels and has proposed a referendum on leaving the euro.

　　该党坚决要求意大利应从欧盟那里夺回主权，并提出就脱离欧元区举行公投。

　　Mr Grillo also sees his movement as part of a general anti-establishment wave across the west and hailed the victory of Donald Trump¹⁴ in the US as a triumph over the Freemasons, huge banking¹⁵ groups and the Chinese.

　　格里洛还把他领导的运动视为一场席卷西方的反建制普遍浪潮的一部分，并称赞唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)赢得美国总统大选是对共济会(freemason)、银行大集团以及中国的胜利。

　　The reasons that Italian populism may ultimately threaten the EU even more profoundly than Brexit are not simply to do with Italy’s traditional commitment to the European ideal.

　　意大利民粹主义对欧盟的威胁可能最终会超过英国退欧，其原因不仅仅是与意大利一直以来对欧洲理想的承诺有关。

　　Also crucial is the fact that Italy uses the euro while Britain has kept its own currency.

　　同样重要的是，意大利使用欧元，而英国保留自己的货币。

　　So, while Brexit is a painful and complicated business, it does not directly threaten the survival of the single currency — or risk unleashing¹⁶ a financial crisis.

　　因此，尽管英国脱欧是痛苦且复杂的，但不会直接威胁到欧元的生存，也不会引发一场金融危机。

　　However, the chain of events set off by Mr Renzi’s referendum defeat could potentially do both.

　　然而，伦齐公投失败引发的一连串事件可能会造成这两种结果。

　　The immediate¹⁷ danger is to the Italian banking system.

　　眼下的危险是对意大利银行业体系的威胁。

　　In the new atmosphere of crisis, the proposed recapitalisation of troubled lenders — in particular Monte dei Paschi di Siena — is threatened.

　　在新的危机气氛中，拟议的对境况不佳银行的资本重组（特别是西雅那银行(Monte dei Paschi di Siena)）面临危险。

　　That could lead to demands for state bailouts, which will be difficult given that the state is already heavily indebted.

　　这可能引发政府纾困的请求，鉴于意大利政府已背负沉重的债务，纾困将非常困难。

　　Revived worries about the size of Italy’s debt could then frighten investors¹⁸, driving up interest rates and threatening the solvency¹⁹ of the Italian state itself.

　　再度产生的对于意大利债务规模的担忧可能会让投资者感到恐慌，这将推升利率并威胁意大利政府自己的偿付能力。

　　It would be much harder to organise²⁰ an EU bailout of Italy than it was to rescue Greece.

　　与救助希腊相比，组织一场欧盟对意大利的纾困将困难得多。

　　Given the size of the economy, the amounts of money involved could be far larger — which would probably trigger a political revolt in the German parliament, particularly with parliamentary elections due there next September.

　　鉴于意大利经济的规模，纾困涉及的资金规模要大得多，这可能会引来德国议会的政治抗议，尤其是在明年9月德国将举行议会选举的情况下。

　　At that point, the break-up of the euro would once again become a very real prospect²¹.

　　到那时，欧元解体可能会再次成为一种非常切实的可能。

　　Set against this is the Italian talent for muddling²² through politically and economically while always avoiding ultimate collapse²³.

　　不过，意大利具有一种在政治和经济上得过且过又总能避免最终垮台的天分。

　　The EU seems to have developed something of the same talent over the long years of the euro crisis.

　　在多年的欧元危机中，欧盟似乎也培养出了这种天分。

　　Yet even if Italy manages to patch together a new government and avoid a banking crisis, the broader picture is still bleak²⁴.

　　然而，即便意大利成功组建新政府并规避银行业危机，更广泛的前景仍然悲观。

　　Its economy is stagnating²⁵ and its political centre is disintegrating²⁶.

　　意大利经济仍在停滞，其政治中心正在瓦解。

　　Nationalists and populists are also on the rise in EU countries including Spain, Poland, France and the Netherlands.

　　此外，民族主义者和民粹主义者也正在其他欧盟国家崛起，包括西班牙、波兰、法国和荷兰。

　　Britain has promised to submit its formal notification of its decision to leave the EU next March.

　　英国承诺将于明年3月递交其正式退欧决定通知。

　　That same month, the union’s leaders are meant to gather in Italy to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the signature of the Treaty of Rome.

　　同一个月，欧盟领导人将在意大利聚首，庆祝《罗马条约》签订60周年。

　　At this rate, it will be more of a wake than a party.

　　按照当前的事态发展，那将更像是一场葬礼前的守夜，而非聚会。

1 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

2 geographic   

adj.地理学的，地理的

参考例句：

• The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

3 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

4 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

5 disillusioned   

a.不再抱幻想的，大失所望的，幻想破灭的

参考例句：

• I soon became disillusioned with the job. 我不久便对这个工作不再抱幻想了。
• Many people who are disillusioned in reality assimilate life to a dream. 许多对现实失望的人把人生比作一场梦。

6 advent   

n.(重要事件等的)到来，来临

参考例句：

• Swallows come by groups at the advent of spring. 春天来临时燕子成群飞来。
• The advent of the Euro will redefine Europe.欧元的出现将重新定义欧洲。

7 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

9 chafed   

v.擦热（尤指皮肤）( chafe的过去式 )；擦痛；发怒；惹怒

参考例句：

• Her wrists chafed where the rope had been. 她的手腕上绳子勒过的地方都磨红了。
• She chafed her cold hands. 她揉搓冰冷的双手使之暖和。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

10 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

11 comedian   

n.喜剧演员；滑稽演员

参考例句：

• The comedian tickled the crowd with his jokes.喜剧演员的笑话把人们逗乐了。
• The comedian enjoyed great popularity during the 30's.那位喜剧演员在三十年代非常走红。

12 adamant   

adj.坚硬的，固执的

参考例句：

• We are adamant on the building of a well-off society.在建设小康社会这一点上，我们是坚定不移的。
• Veronica was quite adamant that they should stay on.维罗妮卡坚信他们必须继续留下去。

13 regain   

vt.重新获得，收复，恢复

参考例句：

• He is making a bid to regain his World No.1 ranking.他正为重登世界排名第一位而努力。
• The government is desperate to regain credibility with the public.政府急于重新获取公众的信任。

14 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

15 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

16 unleashing   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Company logos: making people's life better by unleashing Cummins power. 公司理念：以康明斯动力建设更美好的生活！ 来自互联网
• Sooner or later the dam will burst, unleashing catastrophic destruction. 否则堤坝将崩溃，酿成灾难。 来自互联网

17 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

18 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

19 solvency   

n.偿付能力，溶解力

参考例句：

• Fears about the solvency of the banks precipitated the great economic crash.对银行偿付能力出现恐慌更加速了经济的崩溃。
• Their targets,including profitability ratios,solvency ratios,asset management ratios.其指标包括盈利比率、偿债能力比率、资产管理比率。

20 organise   

vt.组织，安排，筹办

参考例句：

• He has the ability to organise.他很有组织才能。
• It's my job to organise all the ceremonial events.由我来组织所有的仪式。

21 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

22 muddling   

v.弄乱，弄糟( muddle的现在分词 )；使糊涂；对付，混日子

参考例句：

• Don't do that—you're muddling my papers. 别动—你会弄乱我的文件的。
• In our company you see nobody muddling along. 在咱们公司，看不到混日子的人。 来自《简明英汉词典》

23 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

24 bleak   

adj.(天气)阴冷的；凄凉的；暗淡的

参考例句：

• They showed me into a bleak waiting room.他们引我来到一间阴冷的会客室。
• The company's prospects look pretty bleak.这家公司的前景异常暗淡。

25 stagnating   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• I feel I'm stagnating in this job. 我觉得，干这份工作我没有长进。
• ITT was stagnating when Geneen became the chief executive officer in 1959. 1959年吉宁出任行政总负责人时，国际电话电报公司正处于不景气时期。 来自辞典例句

26 disintegrating   

v.（使）破裂[分裂，粉碎]，（使）崩溃( disintegrate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• As a poetic version of a disintegrating world, this one pleased him. 作为世界崩溃论在文学上的表现，他非常喜欢这个学说。 来自辞典例句
• Soil animals increase the speed of litter breakdown by disintegrating tissue. 土壤动物通过分解组织，加速落叶层降解的速度。 来自辞典例句