美国国家公共电台 NPR--How will 2 bank failures affect the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation?

How will 2 bank failures affect the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation?

Transcript¹

The Fed was watching closely Tuesday when the new report card on inflation was released. The Fed's efforts to combat inflation have been complicated by recent stresses in the banking² industry.

SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:

New inflation numbers released this morning show a bit of a decline, but they're still a lot higher than the Fed would like. In the past year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times to try to curb³ inflation. But that effort just got much more complicated because of the high-profile collapse⁴ of two banks. NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. Hi, Scott.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE⁵: Good morning.

PFEIFFER: Scott, the Fed has been very aggressive at rate hikes to try to beat inflation, minimally⁶ successful. What did we learn about from today's data?

HORSLEY: Prices are still going up, although not as fast as they were. Annual inflation for the 12 months ending in February was 6%. That's down from 6.4% the month before. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers last week that the price of some goods has leveled off, and there are signs that rents aren't climbing as fast as they were. But the cost of a lot of services, like restaurant meals and airline tickets, are still going up. And because people spend a lot of money on services, that's keeping overall inflation about three times as high as the Fed's long-term target.

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JEROME POWELL: Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy⁷.

HORSLEY: And now there's this new bump in the road - the collapse of those two big regional banks in recent days. Some analysts⁸ think that's going to force the Fed to be more cautious about raising interest rates when policymakers meet next week.

PFEIFFER: Right. And Scott, explain why those bank collapses⁹ could affect the Fed's strategy in battling inflation.

HORSLEY: Well, the Fed is concerned with the stability of the financial system as well as price stability. It's pretty hard to have a working economy if the banking system falls apart. As you said, over the last year, the Fed has been raising interest rates aggressively, and that was one of the factors in the collapse of Silicon¹⁰ Valley Bank. While both the Fed and the FDIC moved quickly to prevent a more widespread bank run, the fallout from these bank failures is still being felt throughout the banking industry. Stocks in a lot of other regional banks have taken a beating in recent days.

Senior economist¹¹ Michael Pugliese of Wells Fargo says, if that uncertainty¹² continues, then the Fed is going to have bigger concerns on its mind next week than just what we see in today's Consumer Price Index, or CPI.

MICHAEL PUGLIESE: I don't think the CPI is going to be the determinant of whether or not the Fed hikes. I think that's going to be determined¹³ far more how the financial markets and just the financial system more broadly does or does not stabilize¹⁴ between now and a week from Wednesday.

HORSLEY: Just a week ago, the Fed was expected to raise interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point next week and maybe half a point. Since these bank failures, though, betting markets now think a half-point increase is off the table next week, and the Fed might skip a rate increase altogether.

PFEIFFER: Let's say the Fed does do a less-than-expected rate hike or no rate hike - what's the likelihood that that ends up making inflation spike¹⁵ again?

HORSLEY: Yeah, that's the high-wire act. The Fed has said many times it doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of the 1970s by letting up on inflation too soon, only to see costs spiral out of control again. But the Fed might have a little bit of maneuvering¹⁶ room here. Just yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a survey that shows people's expectations for inflation a year from now have gone down in the last month. The Fed keeps a close eye on not only where inflation is, but where people think it's going. So that drop in inflation expectations could buy the central bank a little bit of time.

PFEIFFER: That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thank you.

HORSLEY: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

3 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

4 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 minimally   

最低限度地，最低程度地

参考例句：

• Food spoilage problems occur with minimally processed, concentrated frozen citrus products. 食品的变质也发生在轻微加工的、浓缩冷冻的柑橘制品中。
• So, minimally, they are responsible for such actions and omissions. 所以，至少来说，他们要对这样的行为和忽略负责。

7 bumpy   

adj.颠簸不平的，崎岖的

参考例句：

• I think we've a bumpy road ahead of us.我觉得我们将要面临一段困难时期。
• The wide paved road degenerated into a narrow bumpy track.铺好的宽阔道路渐渐变窄，成了一条崎岖不平的小径。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 collapses   

折叠( collapse的第三人称单数 )； 倒塌； 崩溃； （尤指工作劳累后）坐下

参考例句：

• This bridge table collapses. 这张桥牌桌子能折叠。
• Once Russia collapses, the last chance to stop Hitler will be gone. 一旦俄国垮台，抑止希特勒的最后机会就没有了。

10 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

11 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

12 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

13 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

14 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

15 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

16 maneuvering   

v.移动，用策略( maneuver的现在分词 )；操纵

参考例句：

• This Manstein did, with some brilliant maneuvering under the worse winter conditions. 曼施坦因在最恶劣的严冬条件下，出色地施展了灵活机动的战术，终于完成了任务。 来自辞典例句
• In short, large goals required farsighted policies, not tactical maneuvering. 一句话，大的目标需要有高瞻远瞩的政策，玩弄策略是不行的。 来自辞典例句