美国国家公共电台 NPR--Some Republicans say New York is in the grips of a crime wave. Experts say not at all

Some Republicans say New York is in the grips of a crime wave. Experts say not at all

Transcript¹

Following former President Donald Trump's indictment² in New York, various Republicans have accused Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg of enabling a crime wave in the city. Earlier this week, members of the House Judiciary Committee even held a hearing in Manhattan regarding the city's crime issue.

The committee chairman, Rep. Jim Jordan from Ohio, described New York as "a city that has lost its way ... here in Manhattan, the scales of justice are weighed down by politics. For the district attorney justice isn't blind, it's about looking for opportunities to advance a political agenda: a radical³ political agenda."

The committee heard testimony⁴ from survivors⁵ and family members of victims of crimes throughout the city, including Jose Alba, a worker at a store in Harlem who was assaulted by two customers. He killed one of them in self-defense and was charged with murder. Those charges were eventually dropped, but Alba says the ordeal⁶ is far from over. "I am now traumatized from the incident. I am not working because I am terrified for my life that someone in a gang will come after me for revenge," Alba says.

New Yorkers have mixed reaction about whether crime is a concern

While there is a belief among some Republicans that New York is in the midst of a crime wave, ask New Yorkers how concerned they are about crime and you'll get all kinds of different answers. Among them: a sense of doom⁷, that the city is heading back into the bad old days. But these visions are distinctly at odds⁸ with the data. Experts say crime rates in the city have in fact been decreasing. So what's up with the difference between perception and reality?

Chris David was born and raised in Brooklyn but currently lives in Queens. He's 50, and he worries about his daughters. He sees the news about shootings involving young people in parts of New York and thinks "it's getting worse now than it was in the '90s." He blames it on leniency⁹ and bail¹⁰ reform.

Just one block down from where he's walking his dog in his neighborhood, Lucy Nystrom, 28, has a completely different take. She says she feels very safe, although she acknowledges that "there's definitely issues with mental health in New York City. I think it's always been a problem here, and I think it's being handled really poorly."

At a press conference Tuesday — the day after the committee hearing — neither Mayor Eric Adams nor New York City Police Commissioner¹¹ Keechant Sewell acknowledged Rep. Jordan's hearing. Instead, they announced the indictment of a group that was targeting nightclubs, drugging primarily gay men and robbing them. Two people died of overdoses.

Experts say New York is not experiencing a crime wave

So is it accurate to say New York in the grips of a crime wave?

Some experts say not at all.

"Putting shooting and homicide crimes into context, we're a much safer city than we were 30 years ago," says assistant professor Christopher Herrmann, a criminologist at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. He's formerly¹² with the NYPD and has been studying the city's crime trends for years. Herrmann says last year there were 438 murders; there were nearly 2,000 three decades ago, in 1993.

Ahead of the hearing, Herrmann decided¹³ to compare New York City crime rates with rates in Columbus, Ohio, which Congressman¹⁴ Jordan represents. "We see that you're 4.3 times more likely to be killed in Columbus, Ohio, than Manhattan. And you see that 7.3 times as many cars per capita are being stolen in Columbus, Ohio, than in Manhattan."

It's a downward trend that continues for New York. According to NYPD, in March 2023, New York City saw a 26.1% drop in shooting incidents compared to this time last year. And homicides fell by 11.4%.

So why are some New Yorkers alarmed? One reason might be that crimes spiked¹⁶ quite significantly during the pandemic. But Herrmann points out that this was not a phenomenon exclusive to New York. Crime soared across the U.S., especially carjackings. There was also a spike¹⁵ in hate crimes, particularly anti-Asian.

The good news is that things have been settling down, and the downward trend is continuing: Crime rates have been dropping precipitously since the '90s in New York. There is one caveat¹⁷, he says: While there are fewer shootings in the city, an increasing percentage of them are by and against young people.

But unfortunately, Herrmann says, that's also a nationwide problem.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 indictment   

n.起诉；诉状

参考例句：

• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。
• They issued an indictment against them.他们起诉了他们。

3 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

4 testimony   

n.证词；见证，证明

参考例句：

• The testimony given by him is dubious.他所作的证据是可疑的。
• He was called in to bear testimony to what the police officer said.他被传入为警官所说的话作证。

5 survivors   

幸存者，残存者，生还者( survivor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The survivors were adrift in a lifeboat for six days. 幸存者在救生艇上漂流了六天。
• survivors clinging to a raft 紧紧抓住救生筏的幸存者

6 ordeal   

n.苦难经历，（尤指对品格、耐力的）严峻考验

参考例句：

• She managed to keep her sanity throughout the ordeal.在那场磨难中她始终保持神志正常。
• Being lost in the wilderness for a week was an ordeal for me.在荒野里迷路一星期对我来说真是一场磨难。

7 doom   

n.厄运，劫数；v.注定，命定

参考例句：

• The report on our economic situation is full of doom and gloom.这份关于我们经济状况的报告充满了令人绝望和沮丧的调子。
• The dictator met his doom after ten years of rule.独裁者统治了十年终于完蛋了。

8 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

9 leniency   

n.宽大（不严厉）

参考例句：

• udges are advised to show greater leniency towards first-time offenders.建议法官对初犯者宽大处理。
• Police offer leniency to criminals in return for information.警方给罪犯宽大处理以换取情报。

10 bail   

v.舀（水），保释；n.保证金，保释，保释人

参考例句：

• One of the prisoner's friends offered to bail him out.犯人的一个朋友答应保释他出来。
• She has been granted conditional bail.她被准予有条件保释。

11 commissioner   

n.（政府厅、局、处等部门）专员，长官，委员

参考例句：

• The commissioner has issued a warrant for her arrest.专员发出了对她的逮捕令。
• He was tapped for police commissioner.他被任命为警务处长。

12 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

13 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

14 Congressman   

n.（美）国会议员

参考例句：

• He related several anecdotes about his first years as a congressman.他讲述自己初任议员那几年的几则轶事。
• The congressman is meditating a reply to his critics.这位国会议员正在考虑给他的批评者一个答复。

15 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

16 spiked   

adj.有穗的；成锥形的；有尖顶的

参考例句：

• The editor spiked the story. 编辑删去了这篇报道。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They wondered whether their drinks had been spiked. 他们有些疑惑自己的饮料里是否被偷偷搀了烈性酒。 来自辞典例句

17 caveat   

n.警告； 防止误解的说明

参考例句：

• I would offer a caveat for those who want to join me in the dual calling.为防止发生误解，我想对那些想要步我后尘的人提出警告。
• As I have written before,that's quite a caveat.正如我以前所写，那确实是个警告。