经济学人18:反攻 The fightback

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　　财经；印度经济；反攻；

　　Undercurrents of optimism about reform, and some fighting talk, in India;

　　在印度经济改革势头良好、但仍存靡靡质疑之声的背后；

　　After a storm-tossed six months for the economy, India's authorities are trying to get things back on an even keel. On June 25th the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced measures to try to stabilise the rupee. It has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar in the past year (see chart), reflecting global woes¹ but also a slowdown in India and a drying up of capital inflows. Its decline is widely seen in India as a bad thing, stoking inflation and hurting firms with foreign-currency debt.

　　在国内经济度过了近六个月的风雨飘摇之后，印度政府开始着力如何将经济局势趋于稳定。6月25日，印度储备银行宣布了一系列措施，意图稳定卢比汇率。在过去的一年中，卢比对美元的汇率下挫近百分之二十（见下图），不仅反映出了全球经济之殇，还体现了印度本国经济增速放缓，进口资金枯竭的问题。这种下滑对印度来说普遍被视为不利因素，不仅通胀率随之节节攀升，对于举有外债的公司来说负担也更为沉重。

　　India has long shied away from letting fickle² foreigners buy government bonds, but the RBI this week loosened the rules to tempt³ in sovereign-wealth funds and other long-term investors⁴. It also slightly eased restrictions⁵ on Indian manufacturing and infrastructure⁶ firms seeking funds abroad.

　　印度向来都对一些不靠谱的外资对国债的收购请求采取规避的态度，但印度央行此次则对政策实施宽松，希望能够吸引到更多大笔的资金和长期投资意向人。一些从事制造业和基建工程的印度公司也在寻求外资助力的限制上得到了适度的放宽。

　　IKEA, a Swedish furniture chain, boosted morale⁷ by saying it would invest up to 1.5 billion EURO(1.9 billion Dollar) in India—although on closer inspection⁸ that sum was spread over many years. Coca-Cola followed suit with the announcement of an additional 3 billion Dollar in investment, taking the total earmarked for India by 2020 to 5 billion Dollar. A ratings agency proved oddly helpful, too: on June 25th Moody's signalled it would not follow Standard and Poor's and Fitch, which have both warned of a possible downgrade of India to junk status. Its rating, which hovers⁹ just within investment grade, remains¹⁰ stable, the agency said.

　　瑞典家居连锁巨头宜家公司宣布决定在印度投入15亿欧元（约19亿美元）资金——尽管这笔巨额投资被安排在数年时间里逐批投放，但也为当地经济的提振带来了利好消息。可口可乐公司也紧随其后，宣布将会追加30亿美元拨入印度市场，到2020年时印度将接受总额达50亿美元的投资。一家评级机构也出乎意料地帮了个忙：本月25日，穆迪宣布其不会跟随标普和惠誉之后，警告会将印度的信用评级降至垃圾级。穆迪确认，印度目前所拥有的投资级依然稳定。

　　The impact of all this? Not much. The rupee is still near record lows. Yet there is a feeling that a bleak¹¹ picture may be improving slightly, mainly thanks to a government reshuffle. Pranab Mukherjee, the finance minister, left his position on June 26th to contest the largely ceremonial post of the presidency¹². Mr Mukherjee, who presented his first budget in 1982, has had a disastrous¹³ stint¹⁴ as finance minister this time round, pursuing controversial tax claims against foreigners, including Vodafone; failing to tame the budget deficit¹⁵; and chairing troubleshooting committees that often fired ordnance¹⁶ at India's own feet.

　　上述的这些到底能派上多大的用场呢？只能说收效甚微。卢比汇率目前仍在其历史最低点附近徘徊，但随着政府部门及领导人的重新洗牌，也有预感认为惨淡的国内经济形式也许可以得到些许好转。印度财政部长普拉纳布·穆克吉在26日辞去了职务，并宣布将会参与下一届总统竞选的角逐。穆克吉部长在1982年初上任的时候第一次公布了他的财政预算，但就目前的经济状况来看，他任职期间的所作所为早已过分拮据不合时宜。比如针对如沃达丰这样的外资企业征税、缩减预算赤字失败、以及其领导的修正委员，最后往往被证明是搬起石头砸自己的脚。

　　Responsibility for the finance ministry¹⁷, for a time at least, has passed to Manmohan Singh, the prime minister. Although even less of a spring chicken—at 79, compared with Mr Mukherjee's 76—he has credentials¹⁸ as a reformer, having served as finance minister when India unveiled its liberalisation in 1991.

　　有关执掌国家财政大权的事宜，已经在近几年移交给了曼莫尼·辛格总理。与76岁的穆克吉相比，已79岁高龄的辛格更欠年龄上的优势，但他曾在1991年时任财政部长，那时的印度正在经历一系列的经济自由化改革，可以说辛格对于这场变革也是功不可没。

　　At the end of his career, the hope is that Mr Singh makes a stand and rams¹⁹ through budget cuts and vital changes on tax and foreign investment. “It could make a difference,” says an official. “He has a lot of credibility. It is an area that is close to his heart and his reputation will be much more on the line… The situation is tough so there is a limit to what can be done, but it is a mood-lifter.” His party, Congress, which leads the ruling coalition²⁰ and is run by Sonia Gandhi, its hereditary²¹ chief, is lukewarm about making tough decisions. But there are signs that it may have successfully wooed one or two smaller parties outside its present coalition, which may help it push tricky²² changes through parliament.

　　而辛格也被许多人寄望，能够在执政末期再加把力，促成预算削减和有关税制与外资的改革上。“局面一定会有所改变，”一位官员预测到，“他在这些议题上已经积累了不少经验和功绩，这是他的心之所向，但他的名誉也将会经受更多考验，很有可能晚节不保。目前形式仍然严峻，因此真正能够落实的项目也十分有限。但不管怎么说，这是一种士气上的鼓舞。”而主导联合政府、接任亡夫之位的领袖索尼娅·甘地所领导的印度国大党及议会对做出这些艰难决定的态度不温不火，但也有迹象显示，一些小型联合执政外的在野党则被这些议题吸引过来，帮助一些具有争议的法案在议会中通过。

　　The promise of a push on reforms has been made—and broken—consistently by the government for years. With a busy electoral timetable up to general elections in 2014, it may be harder to fulfil than ever. Still, others, stepping back from the hurly-burly, can see a silver lining²³ in India's great wobble, particularly the fall in the currency. T.C.A. Ranganathan, the chairman of Exim Bank of India, which finances trade, says: “The exchange rate has moved in our favour. I'm fairly happy.” He reckons a weaker rupee will help spur a long-awaited boom in manufacturing. Kaushik Basu, the government's chief economic adviser²⁴, no slouch on the need for reform, agrees. A cheaper currency means India is “getting an advantage for our export sector”. Perhaps, in time, that may prove more important than today's firefighting.

　　印度政府在过去几年中针对改革的承诺一直反口复舌，2014年的印度总统大选意味将会有更多的高层活动，届时部分工作和议题将会更难开展。但仍然有人渐渐淡出唇枪舌剑，在印度如今经济局势的剧烈震荡，尤其是货币持续贬值的趋势当中看到了希望。主管贸易注资的印度进出口银行主席T.C.A 阮甘那桑说：“我很高兴看到卢比汇率正在朝我们希望的方向发展。”他认为，卢比的持续疲软可以帮助完成一次久盼未临的制造业昌旺。一向对经济改革信誓旦旦的印度政府首席经济顾问巴素也认同这一观点。廉价货币对印度的出口业来说“可能是一种优势”。时间会证明，这一切将会比现在的改革与保守派之争更为至关重要。

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