经济学人87:世界如何看待美国?

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Still on a hill依然在巅峰The NSA's snooping has done less damage than previously¹ thought美国国家安全局的窥探造成的破坏比预想的要小VOTERS, journalists and just about everyone paying attention to politics all tend to overestimate² the power of the president. When Barack Obama won the White House in 2008, many Americans were dazzled by his promises of change at home and a more judicious³ mix of strength and humility⁴ abroad. Indeed, it was hoped that Mr Obama would rescue America's image after eight years of George Bush's brand of cowboy-booted diplomacy⁵. Since then, America's worries about how the world sees the president, and by extension the country, have divided between those who think he is aloof⁶ and reluctant to use military force, which makes America look weak, and those who think his administration intervenes too much, making the country seem callous⁷.

选民、记者以及关注政治的民众貌似都高估了总统的权力。当奥巴马总统2008年竞选成功入主白宫时，众多的美国民众被其国内改革和判断准确的实力与谦虚并重的国外政策弄得眼花缭乱。确实，在经历了布什总统8年的牛仔外交之后，人们希望奥巴马能够拯救美国的国家形象。自此以后，美国民众对世界如何看待美国总统及其怎样让国家富强的担忧已经分为两大阵营。一些人认为他不愿意使用军事力量，这让美国看起来十分懦弱，另一些民众则认为他干涉过多，让这个国家看起来很不近人情。

美国.jpgThis seems to have passed the rest of the world by, according to a Pew Research Centre world poll, published on July 14th. Foreigners do not much like being snooped on, and most countries disapprove⁸ of America's use of drones. Yet most places outside the Middle East still view America favourably⁹. Nor does America's disenchantment with its president, whose job approval numbers hover¹⁰ around 40%, seem to be echoed elsewhere. Taking Pew's numbers on whether countries expect Mr Obama to do the right thing in world affairs and comparing them with state-by-state presidential approval numbers from Gallup, it turns out that the 44th president is more popular in China than in all but three of the 50 states: Maryland, Massachusetts and Hawaii.

根据皮尤调查研究中心7月14日发布的国际民意思调查报告，这种观点似乎不为外界所知。外国人不是很喜欢被窥视，许多国家都反对美国使用无人机。然而在中东以外的许多地区人们依然很喜欢美国。美国民众并没有对其总统失去信心、不抱幻想。总统的工作得到40%的民众的支持，这也在其他方面得到回应。

Mr Obama's popularity in China could come in handy. The most alarming finding in the study is that 62% of those polled in China worry that its border disputes will lead to armed conflict. Some 67% of Americans say the same thing. The president's approval ratings did drop considerably¹¹ in the two countries most affronted¹² by the NSA: Brazil and Germany. Yet these opinions should be placed in context. Brazilians have long harboured suspicions of America. The country's president, Dilma Rousseff, was once tortured for her opposition¹³ to a military government that most people on the Brazilian left believe was supported by America; the government that did the torturing fretted¹⁴ that Yankees might come and grab the Amazon.

奥巴马在中国的欢迎程度极易可得。最令人警醒的结果是调查中，接受调查的中国人里约62%的人担心边界争端将会导致武装冲突。约67%的美国人也表达了同样的看法。总统的支持率在被美国国家安全局公然侮辱的两个国家（巴西和德国）骤降。然而这些观点必须放在特定的语境中审视。长期以来，巴西人就对美国持怀疑态度。巴西总统迪尔玛·卢瑟福曾经因为她反对军事政府而遭折磨，而绝大多数的巴西左派人士认为这一军事政府是美国支持的。实施折磨的政府担心美国人可能会入侵并攫取亚马孙地区。

Meanwhile Germany's internal history with snooping has left the country wary¹⁵ of all government surveillance. And even Germans view America more favourably now than they did when Mr Bush was in charge. The one place where Obama's America is much less popular than Mr Bush's is Russia, a fact likely to be passed over when Republicans discuss how Mr Obama's weakness has emboldened¹⁶ Vladimir Putin.

与此同时，德国窥探的内部历史使这个国家堤防所有形式的政府监视。现在，甚至连德国，相较于布什主政时期，对美国的态度更为友善。唯一一个让奥巴马通知下的美国不如布什时代受欢迎的国家是俄罗斯，这是共和党人讨论奥巴马的羸弱怎样给普金壮胆很可能会忽视的一个环节。

Unfortunately what Pew's numbers also suggest is that being well regarded does not count for much. Mr Obama's presence in the White House has improved America's image abroad, but that has not helped to bring trade pacts¹⁷, peace in the Middle East, a worldwide deal to cut carbon-dioxide emissions¹⁸ or any of the other things Mr Obama's boosters once thought he could achieve. Like most presidents, Mr Obama has so far had a foreign policy that consists of making unpleasant and unsatisfactory choices when faced with crises, rather than reshaping the world.

然而不幸的是，皮尤调查中心的数据同时还表明被友好地对待并不能说明太多问题。奥巴马入主白宫确实提升了美国在国外的国家形象，但是这并没有帮助带来贸易协定、中东地区的和平、全球范围的二氧化碳减排协议抑或是其他奥巴马总统的支持者曾经认为他所能带来的变化。正如许多其他的总统一样，目前为止，奥巴马总统在面对危机的时候，他所倡导的外交政策是做一些令人不愉快不满意的选择而非重整整个世界的秩序。

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