经济学人97:"可可"债券 大规模转变

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　　“可可”债券

　　Mass conversion¹

　　大规模转变

　　Investors² are panting for a risky³ new form of bonds issued by banks

　　风险投资者们在寻求银行已发行债券之冒险新形势

　　IT TOOK three separate bail-outs to get KBC, a Belgian bank, through the financial crisis. So one might expect bonds that automatically get wiped out if the bank runs into trouble again to reward investors handsomely. Not so: KBC's “contingent convertible” bonds, designed to lose all their value in a crisis, yield a meagre 4% a year. Egged on by investors, banks are issuing such securities in growing amounts. Regulators are watching anxiously.

　　为平安度过金融危机比利时央行已三次将优先股作为分红发给股东们。因此有些人可能会认为：如果银行再次因给予投资者丰厚回报而陷入困境的话，债券可能会因此而销声匿迹。恰恰相反：比利时央行发行的“或有可转换”债券，被认为认为将会于危机中失去其所有价值，一年收益率也达到了4%。受投资者的煽动，银行不断的发行此类有价债券。监管机构对此也颇为焦虑。

　　债券.jpg

　　Cocos, as these instruments are known, are a newish hybrid⁴ of bank equity⁵ and debt. Regulators globally are keen on banks having more equity. This makes bail-outs less likely and, if they prove inevitable⁶, less painful for taxpayers⁷. Bankers prefer debt because it lowers their tax bill, and juices both profits and bonuses. Cocos are the compromise.

　　Cocos，不同于这些已知票据，是银行股本以及债务的新生儿。全球的监管机构都希望银行能够拥有更多的股本这会使得将优先股作为分红发放变得极不可能并且有助于缓解纳税人压力如若此举不可避免的话。银行则因为低税率以及利润和奖金的成本而更喜欢举债。Cocos便是折中的结果。

　　Cocos take multiple forms, but all are intended to behave like bonds when times are good, yet absorb losses, equity-like, in a crisis. At a given trigger point, when equity levels are so low that bankruptcy⁸ threatens, cocos either lose some or all of their value, or get exchanged for shares. Regulators have allowed them to be used in limited quantities to meet increased equity requirements. Banks promise the coco bondholders will get “bailed in”, to use the regulatory argot⁹, in lieu of taxpayers.

　　它采取了多重形式：在光景较好的时候和债券并无两样，在经济危机承受损失之时更像是普通股。这之间有一个给定的触发点—当股本水平低到有破产的危险之时，cocos要么失去部分或全部的价值，要么用来换取股份。监管者们已经允少量的cocos被使用来满足增加的股本要求。银行也允诺coco的债券持有者将会代替纳税人得到“援助”—用监管者的行话来讲。

　　Fans describe cocos as “pre-funded rights issues”, a metaphorical¹⁰ fire extinguisher in an otherwise tinder-like capital structure. But similar “hybrid” instruments misfired in the last crisis; none of the new generation of cocos has ever been tested. Some fret¹¹ that coco bondholders could incur¹² losses even as the issuer continues to reward shareholders¹³, in defiance¹⁴ of fundamental laws of capitalism¹⁵.

　　拥护者将cocos形容为“先行投资的权利股发行”，是其他易燃资本结构的一个隐喻性的灭火器。但是类似的“混血”产物在过去的经济危机中并未奏效；同时新生代的cocos从未接受过考验。有些人苦恼coco的债券持有人将会在发行者无视资本主义规律继续回报股东之时蒙受损失。

　　Such qualms¹⁶ have not stopped investors from piling in, at ever lower yields. Banks have duly stepped up issuance: from nearly nothing in 2010 to 64 billion so far this year. Credit Suisse, itself a coco-issuing bank, expects at least another 20 billion by year-end.

　　良心上的不安没能阻止投资者们在收益率较低时涌入。银行已经适当的加大了发行量：从2010年的几乎为零到至今的640亿美元。瑞士信贷作为其中的发行银行之一，会在今年年底另增发行200亿美元。

　　Much of this has come from big-name European lenders, such as HSBC, which is preparing a 6 billion issue. A mob of smaller banks is expected to follow suit later this year, after the European Central Bank vets¹⁷ their accounts. Peers in the Middle East and Asia are also lining¹⁸ up.

　　它们中的大多数都来自于诸如丰汇银行之类的欧洲知名银行。在欧洲中央银行通过一些小型银行的审查之后，它们预计将会在今年年底效仿发行。同时中东以及亚洲的银行也在排队。

　　Investors disagree whether cocos should be viewed as perilous¹⁹ bonds or slightly less risky shares. Amusingly and worryingly, a recent survey by Royal Bank of Scotland found that 90% of investors thought their understanding of cocos was better than average. Whizzy hedge funds used to dominate the market, but sleepier asset managers are investing in growing numbers.

　　投资者对于将cocos视为危险债券或者低风险股票持不赞成的态度。说起来有趣但同时又令人担忧的是苏格兰皇家银行一项近期的研究发现：90%的投资者认为他们对于cocos的了解高于平均水平。过去是高端的对冲基金来主导市场，但现在不活跃的资产管理公司越来越多。

　　Coco yields have fallen in part because banks' balance-sheets are growing sturdier. That could change in a flash, especially if the euro zone tips back into crisis. Alex Lasagna of Algebris, a hedge fund, says each bank and bond presents its own idiosyncratic risks. The diciest of them, he says, are equivalent to “picking up pennies in front of a bullet train”.

　　Coco投资效益下降的部分原因是由于银行的资产负债表变得越来越坚实。但这可能会在瞬间改变，尤其是当欧元区可能会到退回危机中。对冲基金Algebris的Alex Lasagna认为每个银行以及债券都呈现出了其特有的风险。它们的风险相当于“子弹头列出前捡起硬币”用他的话来说。

　　Regulators, who crave²⁰ a simpler financial system, wonder whether cocos will make dealing²¹ with failing banks even trickier²². The triggering of one coco will frighten investors away from all of them. Lawsuits²³ will undoubtedly²⁴ ensue, injecting panic at the most awkward time. Given recent experience, the watchdogs are right to be wary²⁵ of anything banks are keen on.

　　监管机构的确渴望一个更为简单的金融机构所以他们想知道是否cocos会使得处理银行破产变得更加棘手。一个coco的失败将会作为一个触发点使得所有的投资者远离他们。毫无疑问法律诉讼会随之而来在最尴尬的时候注入恐慌。鉴于近期经验，对于监管者而言警惕任何银行热衷的事情是再必要不过了。

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