经济学人111:北海油气和预算 夕阳工业?

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　　北海油气和预算

　　Priming the pumps

　　采取措施

　　For the oil and gas industry, tax reductions were overdue¹

　　油气工业减税政策已过期

　　Sunset industry?

　　夕阳工业？

　　AMONG the tax cuts announced in his budget on March 18th, the chancellor² of the exchequer³, George Osborne, laid out big reductions for oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea. The previous tax rates for companies operating in the older fields sometimes amounted to a punitive⁴ 80%. Now the petroleum⁵ revenue tax will be reduced from 50% to 35%, and a supplementary⁶ corporation tax will come down from 30% to 20%. The government will also invest in new seismic⁷ surveys in the more remote areas of the North Sea. Altogether, Mr Osborne hopes that these measures will boost production there by 15% by the end of the decade.

　　在3月18号预算案公布的税务减免中，英国财政大臣乔治·奥斯本提议为北海的油气公司提供大幅税务减免。之前在老油田进行开采的公司有时竟会缴纳总计达到80%的重税。如今石油收益税率将从50%降到35%，企业所得附加税将从30%降到20%。政府也将在北海远海域的新地震测量方面投入资金。总而言之，奥斯本希望这些方法能促使该地区十年后的产量飙升15%。

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　　Oil and gas companies lobbied furiously for these changes, and they will certainly be welcomed, not least around the industry's capital of Aberdeen, where some 160,000 people rely on the sector⁸. Mr Osborne should not expect much gratitude⁹, though. Some firms have yet to forgive him for raising taxes in the first place.

　　油气公司为这些达成改变而大力游说，他们当然会受到欢迎，尤其是在该产业的中心亚伯丁地区，这里约160，000名居民依赖着这一产业。但是奥斯本不应该期望会得到太多感激。有些公司还没原谅他一开始提升税率的行为。

　　In 2011 the chancellor surprised everyone by increasing the supplementary tax by 12 points to 32% (afterwards lowered to 30%). This might have netted the hard-up chancellor a windfall of about 2 billion (3 billion) but, so argue many in the industry, the tax rise also deterred¹⁰ companies from sinking any more money into an ageing basin where it had already become very expensive to operate. With margins¹¹ wafer thin, North Sea oil and gas production, which had been falling steadily¹² since its peak in 1999, plummeted¹³ between 2011 and 2013, before recovering slightly last year. Just as importantly, new exploration has crawled almost to a halt. This year it is expected that as few as eight new exploratory wells might be drilled. One consequence is that the once mighty¹⁴ North Sea oil and gas sector has become increasingly marginal to the overall British economy. In 2011-12 North Sea tax revenues totalled 10.9 billion, but in 2013-14 they had shrunk to just 4.7 billion.

　　2011年，这位大臣将附加税率提升了12个百分点，达到了32%(后来又降到了30%)，这令所有人大吃一惊。经济拮据的大臣也许能借此获得一笔约20亿英镑（30亿美元）的意外款项，但是该产业的许多公司也辩称税率上涨阻止了公司将更多的钱扔进这经营昂贵、日趋衰落的领域打水漂。北海的油气生产利润微薄，自1999年达到顶峰后一直保持逐年下降，在2011年和2013年之间骤跌，去年才微弱回升。另一个重要的原因是，新油田的探测也步步维艰到达瓶颈期。今年预计只有八块新油田将会得到开采。一个结果就是曾叱咤风云的北海油气产业会在整体英国经济中越来越边缘化。2011年到2012年间，北海税收总计109亿英镑，但在2013年到2014年，缩减到了47亿。

　　Furthermore, although there might have been a case for a windfall tax in 2011 when the oil price was high, averaging 111 for a barrel of Brent crude over the year, since last June the price has tumbled. It is now down to about 55 a barrel. This has put even more pressure on margins and profits, so much so that, over the past six months, companies have been cutting wages and laying off hundreds of workers in a rushed attempt to cut costs. Overall, according to Oil and Gas UK, an industry lobby group, the sector lost 5.3 billion last year, the worst performance since the 1970s, when the colossal¹⁵ investment in new platforms and other infrastructure¹⁶ preceded the flow of oil and gas.

　　此外，尽管2011年油价高昂，平均一桶布伦特原油约111美元，当时很可能出台一项暴利税，但自去年六月价格已大跌。如今已降至约55美元每桶。这使获取利润越来越难，形势严峻到在过去六个月间，公司一直在削减工资和裁员，慌忙减少开支。据工业游说团体英国石油天然气协会所说，总体上该行业去年损失了53亿英镑，这是自上世纪七十年代以来的最糟表现，那时大量的投资涌入了新平台和其他基础建设中，带领了油气行业发展的风潮。

　　With the price of oil expected to stay at its current level for some time, both employers and employees know that only by drastically reducing operating costs in the North Sea over the long term can the basin remain profitable enough to attract investment, let alone compete with less costly¹⁷ deep-water basins in the Gulf¹⁸ of Mexico and off the west coast of Africa. With oil over 100 a barrel, the industry got used to living high on the hog¹⁹, but those days are gone. In this respect, the tax cuts are helpful, but hardly crucial. Cutting costs will prove far more important.

　　预计油价暂时会保持现在水平，雇主和雇员都知道只有在北海长期大幅削减运作开支，产业才能有足够多的利润来吸引投资，更不要说与成本更低的墨西哥湾和非洲西海岸的深水实验池竞争了。在每桶原油超过100美元的情况下，石油产业习惯了养尊处优，但好景不再。在这方面，减税能起到帮助，但不能解决根本问题。减少成本将更为重要。

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