经济学人:以色列和巴勒斯坦 僵局再起

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　　以色列和巴勒斯坦

　　Take a break

　　僵局再起

　　The two-state solution is still the only one that makes sense. But it won't happen this time round

　　目前两国制仍是解决巴以问题的唯一方式，但这一次依然无法实现。

　　IT IS a cliché: every time a worthy¹ mediator², in this case John Kerry, America's secretary of state, sets about ending the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, people say the clock-hand has reached “a minute to midnight”; disaster will follow if the parties fail to agree. By Mr Kerry's timetable, the chimes will ring out dolefully at the end of this month (see article). He may find a last-minute rewinding ploy³ to keep both sides burbling a bit longer. But there is scant⁴ chance, even with that extension, of a two-state deal being done. Mr Kerry has tried his heroic best, but this round of peacemaking is fizzling out.

　　这已经是老生常谈了——每当有分量的调停人出现，希望终止巴以冲突时（这一次的大人物是美国国务卿克里），人们就知道了，核威胁怕是迫在眉睫了。一旦双方谈崩，便是灾难的开始。对克里来说，本月底很可能就是哀歌奏响的最终期限。也许他还能找到缓兵之计，使两方继续谈判，但即使再拖下去，两国制的方针也很难真正实现。克里已经勇敢地做出了最大的尝试，但这一轮的调和谈判还是以失败告终了。

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　　Disaster will not immediately follow. As things stand, Israel is not under threat, despite its understandable aversion to the prospect⁵ of other states in the Middle East, such as Iran, matching it with nuclear weapons. Israel is a prosperous democracy in a region of chaos⁶ and bloodshed. Binyamin Netanyahu, its prime minister (pictured left), is unchallenged. The Palestinians demanding a state are weak, divided and quiescent⁷; morose⁸ as they are, few favour a return to suicide-bombing.

　　不过灾难也不会瞬间降临。就现在的情况来看，尽管中东的邻国，如伊朗，正在向成为核国家迈进，但以色列并没有遭受实际的威胁。在这片混乱而血腥的土地上，以色列以一个富饶的民主国家屹立于此。本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）作为以色列的总理，他的地位无可争议。巴勒斯坦也要求成为独立国家，尽管他们软弱、分裂、僵化，且国民性格孤僻，但只有极少数人还支持自杀式爆炸这种恐怖暴力行为。

　　Yet Israel cannot afford to be complacent⁹ in the longer run, for this stalemate poses a real threat if the country is to preserve its essence as both Jewish and democratic. It cannot stay both, if it indefinitely controls the Palestinian territories and their people while denying them full rights under Israeli law, including the vote. And if the Palestinians were enfranchised¹⁰, demography¹¹ suggests that a Greater Israel between the Mediterranean¹² and the Jordan river, including Gaza, would no longer be predominantly Jewish. Israel must give the Palestinians a proper state of their own if it is to remain a Jewish democracy.

　　但长久来看，以色列无法自给自足。如果它想要保持自己犹太民主国家的本质，那么这一次的僵局将对其造成真正的威胁。如果以色列无限期地掌控着巴勒斯坦的领土和人民，却又根据以色列的法律拒绝给予他们包括选举权在内的各项权利，那它是无法保持既犹太又民主的本质的。如果巴勒斯坦公民拥有了选举权，那从人口学上看，地中海到约旦河，包括加沙在内的大以色列地区的大部分人口将不再是犹太人。如果以色列想要以犹太民主国的身份存在，那就必须给巴勒斯坦人应有的一个真正意义上的国家。

　　Mr Netanyahu knows this. But most of his own Likud party and much of his coalition¹³ still roundly reject the two-state idea, and he is loth to face them down. This time, he has added a clutch of extra demands which his predecessors¹⁴, notably¹⁵ Ehud Barack at Camp David in 2000 and Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem in 2008, saw no need for—on such issues as boundaries, Jerusalem and the Jordan valley, which many in Likud now want to annex¹⁶. He has let Jewish settlements on the West Bank expand as fast as ever. And he says the Palestinians must first acknowledge Israel as a specifically Jewish state.

　　内塔尼亚胡明白这一点。但他所在的右翼利库德党（Likud party）和他所领导的政府仍然坚决抵制两国制的想法，他本人也不愿说服反对者。这一次，他还在谈判中附带了更多的要求，如两国边界问题，耶路撒冷和约旦峡谷问题，这都是利库德党中很多人想要吞并的地区，但内达尼亚胡的前任们，主要是埃胡德·巴拉克（Ehud Barack）和埃胡德·奥尔默特（Ehud Olmert）分别在2000年的大卫营和2008年的耶路撒冷就已经看出这些要求是没有意义的。他让约旦河西岸地区的犹太人定居点通过去一样快速扩大，同时他还认为巴基斯坦人应最首先认可以色列是一个独立的犹太国家。

　　The Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas (pictured right), says he cannot submit to such demands as a precondition. He would be ditched by his own people if he were to cast Israel's Arabs (who are a fifth of Israeli citizens) into what they see as a second-class status and to disavow the Palestinians' claimed “right of return” to Israel proper. The fact that the Palestinians will have to climb down in the final stage of any deal only adds, like the Israeli demands, to a sense of bluster¹⁷.

　　巴勒斯坦领导人马哈茂德·阿巴斯（Mahmoud Abbas）表示，他无法接受这些作为前提条件的要求。如果他将以色列的阿拉伯人（以色列的第五类公民）算入二等公民，并否认巴勒斯坦人宣称的回到以色列的合法权利，那么他将被自己的人民所抛弃。事实是，巴勒斯坦人将在谈判的最后阶段一味妥协，这只会增加民愤，而这正是以色列希望看到的。

　　In an ideal world, Mr Netanyahu, a clever populist, would emulate¹⁸ the late Ariel Sharon by abandoning his party's right wing and the rejectionists within his coalition in order to forge a new ruling coalition genuinely committed to the two-state option; the Knesset arithmetic would let him do so. And Mr Abbas would step down in favour of a more dynamic leader, such as Marwan Barghouti , imprisoned¹⁹ in an Israeli jail for murder: he helped organise²⁰ a bloody²¹ uprising. That, though, might give him the clout²² to drag the Palestinians into making painful but game-changing concessions²³.

　　理想情况是，内塔尼亚胡作为一个高明的平民主义者，应效仿已故的以色列前总理阿里尔·沙龙（Ariel Sharon），抛弃利库德党的右翼主义和政府内的反对派，以建立一个新的支持两国制的统治集团，以色列议会也会支持他这样做的。而阿巴斯也应主动退位，推举更有活力的领导人上台，如因谋杀罪入狱的马尔万·巴尔古提（Marwan Barghouti）。他曾帮助组织了一起血腥的起义，但这让他有一定的影响力去迫使巴勒斯坦做出一些痛苦但具有转折性的让步和妥协。

　　Instead, both sides are embarking²⁴ on a blame game. Neither will win. The Palestinians are still stateless—and their prospective²⁵ state is getting smaller. The Israelis face not just the growing opprobrium²⁶ of the outside world, boycotts²⁷ and all, but also the prospect of missing another opportunity to ensure the survival of a country that is both democratic and Jewish.

　　但现在，巴以两方都在相互指责，最终只会导致两败俱伤。巴勒斯坦至今仍没有主权，而且未来的希望也变得越来越渺茫。以色列也不仅要面对外界越来越多的指责和抵制，还可能再一次失去保留犹太民主国特性的机会。

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