经济学人:意大利政治 绝佳机会

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　　意大利政治

　　A golden opportunity

　　绝佳机会

　　The split of Silvio Berlusconi's party could boost the governing coalition¹

　　贝卢斯科尼政党的分裂将推动政治联盟

　　T WAS meant to be a christening, but it turned into a funeral. On November 16th Silvio Berlusconi, a media tycoon², rebranded his party, the People of Freedom (PdL). Henceforth it will be Forza Italia (Come on Italy), the name of his political vehicle before 2007 when he merged³ it with the more right-wing National Alliance to form the PdL. But the much-vaunted rebirth provided the occasion for a split. A faction⁴ loyal to the interior minister, Angelino Alfano, stayed away from the relaunch congress. And on the same day Mr Alfano, once the billionaire businessman's designated successor, announced a new group in parliament called the New Centre Right (NCD). This looks as if it will evolve into a separate party.

　　字母T意味着一场宗教洗礼，但结果却是一场葬礼。在11月16号传媒大亨贝卢斯科尼重新命名了自己的政党人民自由党。因此人民自由党会改名为加油意大利，这个名字还是在2007年他与右翼国家联盟融合而形成自由人民党之前取的名字。但是这场声势浩大的更名事件成为了政党分裂的导火线。支持内政部长安杰利诺·阿尔法诺 （Angelino Alfano）的一些派系不支持重新召开国会。在同一日阿尔法诺这位曾经身为亿万商贾的既定继承人，宣布国会出现一个新的政党即新中右翼党。按发展形势看它将发展为一个独立的政党。

　　The split offers Enrico Letta's coalition a glittering opportunity to introduce the economic reforms that Italy urgently needs if its economy is to move ahead in the years to come at more than a snail's pace. The OECD this week predicted that unemployment (12.5% in September), and debt as a proportion of GDP (133%) would both continue to rise, even as the economy creeps out of recession next year.

　　人民自由党的分裂将给莱塔提供一个绝妙的机会来引进经济改革，如果意大利的经济不想在接下来的几年再以蜗牛的速度增长的话，这个经济改革是迫切需要的。本周经济合作与发展组织预测失业率（9月份是12.5%）和债务占GDP（133%）的比例将会持续增长，尽管明年经济会爬出衰退的困境。

　　Cohabitation between the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), to which Mr Letta belongs, and the NCD may never be easy. But the government will be able to get on with its job now without having to worry that Mr Berlusconi might at any moment pull the rug from under it. That threat had already receded⁵: Mr Alfano and his fellow-rebels blocked an attempt by Mr Berlusconi last month to destroy the coalition. The formation of the NCD makes the threat even more remote. All the PdL's ministers joined the rebellion, pushing Mr Berlusconi and his reborn Forza Italia into opposition⁶ alongside the Northern League and the maverick⁷ Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, a comedian⁸.

　　莱塔所属的中右翼民主党和新中右翼党的联合从来就没顺利过。但是现在政府可以不用担心贝卢斯科尼说不定在什么时候跑出来捣乱。这种威胁以及变弱了：阿尔法诺和他的叛军伙伴们在三个月就阻碍了贝卢斯科尼对联盟的摧毁。新中右翼党的形成让这种威胁变得更加遥远。所有自由民主党人士都加入了反抗，这导致贝卢斯科尼和他重生的加油意大利党站到了北方联盟和喜剧演员毕普·格里罗（Beppe Grillo）领导的特立独行的五星运动的对立面。

　　Mr Berlusconi launched his failed coup⁹ last month in retaliation¹⁰ for what he sees as the PD's refusal to prevent his expulsion from parliament following his conviction for tax fraud in August. The senate is expected to vote for his ejection on November 27th. Disagreements over his fate are not, however, the only reasons for the split in the PdL. The rebels tend to be closer to the centre. And they are impatient with Mr Berlusconi's autocratic style of leadership.

　　贝卢斯科尼自认为人民党拒绝阻止自己因为8月份被定罪为税收诈骗而被驱逐出国会，为了报复这一事件，他开展了一个失败的政变。在11月27号参议员要求对是否驱逐贝卢斯科尼做出投票。然而，就他的判决结果产生的分歧不是人民自由党分裂的唯一原因。反派者越来越中立。他们已经对贝卢斯科尼专制的领导风格失去了耐心。

　　That was also the reason for the last big split on the Italian right. In 2010 a previous Berlusconi lieutenant¹¹, Gianfranco Fini, stormed out of the PdL to form his own party. He and his followers¹² have since been reduced to virtual irrelevance¹³, a point the television magnate made forcefully to Mr Alfano in the gruelling negotiations¹⁴ that failed to prevent the latest split. But there are differences between the two revolts. Mr Alfano's followers in parliament are more numerous: 30 in the 321-member senate and 27 in the 630-seat chamber¹⁵ of deputies. And whereas Mr Fini led his disciples¹⁶ into the wilderness¹⁷ of opposition, Mr Alfano is assuring his of a place in the governing majority, if not the government.

　　这也是上次意大利政权严重分裂的原因。2010年前贝卢斯科尼中尉芬妮（Gianfranco Fini），迅速的离开自由民主党创建他自己的政党。他和他的跟随者从此沦落为无关紧要的人物，这是在那次激烈的谈判上电视巨头向阿尔法诺强调指出的，尽管这次谈判未能阻止的了最近的这场政党分裂。但是这两次反抗还是有不同之处的。阿尔法诺在国会的跟随者占多数：在321个参议员中有30人，在630个下议院人员中有27人。尽管芬妮只是与自己的跟随者做出公开的反对，但是阿尔法诺在执政岗上保证了自己的地位，就算不是在政府里面。

　　His rebellion poses the intriguing¹⁸ question of whether, as Mr Berlusconi reportedly fears, Italy's newly fortified¹⁹ coalition might be the basis for something more ambitious. Since the early 1990s, when Italy began experimenting with bipartisan politics as an alternative to the broadly based coalitions²⁰ that had governed Italy for the previous 40-odd years, some have insisted that the country is inherently unsuited to two-party democracy and would benefit from a powerful centre party. Mr Alfano and Mr Letta, who are on good personal terms, both emerged from Democrazia Cristiana, the old Christian²¹ Democratic Party, which spanned the middle of the political spectrum²² and dominated Italy's post-war politics.

　　他的反叛存在着一个耐人寻味的疑问，正如报道所称贝卢斯科尼也有所忌惮的，那就是意大利新强化的联盟或许是一些更加雄心壮志的事情的基础。自90世纪早期，即意大利开始尝试着把两党政治作为之前统治意大利40多年的多党联盟的替代品以来，一些人坚持认为意大利的国情不适合搞两党民主，国家会从一个强大的中心政党中获利。有着良好个人关系的阿尔法诺和莱塔，来自基督民主党，这个党派曾扩张到政治权利的中心并主宰着战后意大利的政治。

　　Much will now depend on the achievements of their coalition and on whether it can reignite economic growth. And for that, the government will need more courage than moderation.

　　现在更多的是取决于联盟的成效以及这是否会重新促进经济的增长。所以，政府需要的不是中庸之道而是勇往直前。

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