经济学人:德国国会选举 扳倒默克尔

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　　德国国会选举

　　Charging at Merkel

　　冲！扳倒默克尔！

　　The Social Democrats¹ pick their candidate to challenge Angela Merkel社民党候选人VS安吉拉·默克尔

　　Peer Steinbruck is a rare German politician in that his sense of irony², delivered in the staccato Hanseatic dialect of his native Hamburg, is sharp, even hilarious³. His favourite animal is the rhinoceros⁴, and rhetorically he charges ahead in much the same way. His main hobby is chess, at which he seems to excel. In sheer intellect, he can match Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor⁵, whom Mr Steinbruck will challenge in next year’s parliamentary election. “It won’t be a boring campaign,” Mr Steinbruck promised wryly⁶ on October 1st, after the leaders of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) nominated him.

　　佩尔·施泰因布吕克是为数不多的能让自己的讽刺既听起来尖酸又令人发笑的德国政治家，他带着家乡汉堡间断的汉撒方言。他最喜欢犀牛，从修辞的角度看，他向前冲的方式也与犀牛非常相似。国际象棋是他的业余爱好，在这方面他似乎造诣深厚。就纯粹才智而言，他能媲美现任总理默克尔，明年他俩将角逐国会选举。10月1日在被社民党（SPD）领导人提名为候选人后，施泰因布吕克带点自嘲地地保证“不会让选战太无聊”。

　　That nomination⁷ did not go quite as planned. The election is still a year away and the SPD wanted to spare its candidate a prolonged grilling⁸. So its chairman, Sigmar Gabriel, had designed an elaborate theatre to keep the candidacy open until January. He himself was one option, Mr Steinbruck the second, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the SPD’s parliamentary leader, the third. Privately⁹, Messrs Gabriel and Steinmeier admitted they did not want the job. When this leaked out, Mr Steinbruck had to be crowned in a hurry.

　　候选人提名并没有按计划进行。距离大选还有一年，社民党不想让其候选人因为太早暴露而在接下来这么长一段时间里受折磨。故而西格玛·加布里尔主席精心设计了一套方案让候选名单到一月份再正式公布。他把自己定位为第一候选人，施泰因布吕克第二，社民党国会领导人弗兰克·瓦尔特·施泰因迈尔第三。然而，私下里加布里尔先生和施泰因迈尔先生却承认自己并不想担当该职。于是消息一经泄露，施泰因布吕克只得被迫匆忙上任。

　　The reluctance¹⁰ of the other two is understandable. Germans think Mrs Merkel has had a good euro crisis—according to polls, voters view her as dependable—and she remains¹¹ hugely favoured to win re-election. Mr Gabriel, the youngest of the SPD’s triumvirate, at 53, may have concluded that he should wait for better odds¹² another day. Mr Steinmeier, who already challenged Mrs Merkel in 2009 and lost, is seen as a softy and did not want to go through the circus again.

　　加布里尔和施泰因迈尔不愿成为候选人其实很好理解。根据民意测验，德国民众觉得默克尔在欧元危机中表现得不错，选民觉得她可靠，大都看好她连任。53岁的加布里尔是社民党三巨头中最年轻的一位，他认为只有另寻他日才能赢得更大的机会；施泰因迈尔在2009年曾挑战过默克尔，但是却以失败告终，原因是民众觉得他过于软弱，所以他也不想再一次经历这样的闹剧。

　　Mr Steinbruck was in his late 50s by the time he led his party in a big election for the first time, in North-Rhine Westphalia, where he was premier¹³. He lost that election. He then ended up in Mrs Merkel’s own government, as her finance minister, in 2005-09, during the grand coalition¹⁴ between Mrs Merkel’s Christian¹⁵ Democrats.

　　施泰因布吕克是在年近花甲时才第一次代表其所在党派参加大选，那时他在北莱茵-威斯特法伦州当州长。可惜他并没有赢得大选。2005年至2009年间社民党与默克尔所在的基督教民主联盟组成执政联盟，他出任默克尔政府的财政部长。

　　They made a good pair. One memorable¹⁶ moment was October 5th 2008, in the first throes of the financial crisis. A bank run seemed imminent¹⁷, and Mrs Merkel and Mr Steinbruck appeared together to assure savers that their money was safe. They genuinely respect each other.

　　他们曾是一对好搭档。2008年10月5日令人记忆深刻，那是金融海啸的第一波冲击，银行挤兑迫在眉睫。默克尔和施泰因布吕克不约而同出现在大众面前，向储蓄者保证储蓄是安全的。他们由衷的敬佩彼此。

　　Now, of course, they will fight a battle of wits, which Mrs Merkel also has in abundance, but displays less readily in public. Philosophically¹⁸, their differences are smaller than they might admit. Mrs Merkel poaches issues from the centre-left parties where she can. Mr Steinbruck is on the right of his erstwhile Socialist¹⁹ party.

　　毫无疑问，他们即将展开斗智斗勇的选战，默克尔深谙此道，只是很少在大众面前展露锋芒。达观地看待他们的差别，似乎并没他们所说的那么大。默克尔给中左翼党派的找麻烦，施泰因布吕克也一直给社会党右派做工作。

　　Wooing its left wing is Mr Steinbruck’s first task. He is hoping that railing against banks will suffice. This week he begged the lefties for “leg room” (which he specified²⁰ at 180cm, bringing the house down). Publicly, he insists that he wants to form a government only in coalition with the Greens, but he knows that the most likely result (arithmetically) is another grand coalition with the CDU. If that happens, he may bow out of politics, for he has ruled out serving under Mrs Merkel again.

　　讨好左派是施泰因布吕克现在的首要任务。他希望只要通过谴责银行就能实现这一目的。本周，他请求左派能给予更大的“伸腿空间”（他明确指出要180厘米，否则同盟将瓦解）。他公开声称希望组成由社民党和绿党共同执政的联合政府。但是他明白最可能的结果（根据民意测验的数据统计）就是社民党与基督教民主联盟形成联合政府。若真是如此，他将退出政坛，因为他拒绝了再一次在默克尔政府任职机会。

 

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