经济学人:意大利政治 桃色总理的从政之路还有多长?

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　　意大利政治

　　Who will be Italy’s next prime minister?

　　谁将成为意大利下一任总理？

　　As Silvio Berlusconi seems to be standing¹ aside, the spotlight² is on Mario Monti and the candidates of the Left

　　由于西尔维奥–贝鲁斯科尼似乎要退出竞选，焦点就到了马里奥·蒙蒂以及左翼候选人身上

　　TWO questions have dominated Italian politics since early summer and hung like long, dark shadows over the markets’ assessment³ of a country that has done much to extricate⁴ itself from the euro crisis, but is still far from safe.

　　从今年夏初起，有两个问题就成为意大利政治的主题，它们像黑色阴影一样长期笼罩着市场对意大利的评估。尽管意大利努力摆脱欧元危机，但是它远未安全。

　　The first question is: “Will he, or won’t he?”. And so is the second.

　　第一个问题是“他会还是不会呢？”第二个问题同样是这个。

　　意大利的桃色总理.png

　　One concerns Silvio Berlusconi. In June the former prime minister and founder⁵ of the conservative People of Freedom (PdL) movement hinted heavily that he would return as his party’s candidate in the general election next spring. Since Mr Berlusconi’s years in government coincided with an almost total absence of economic growth and structural⁷ reform, investors⁸ were horrified⁹. So were many Italians who had not enjoyed their government becoming something of a laughing stock abroad, thanks to Mr Berlusconi’s antics.

　　一个问题关系到西尔维奥·贝鲁斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi），他是意大利前任总理，还发起了保守派人民自由党运动。六月份，他强烈暗示自己将在明年春天的大选中作为他所在党的候选人回归。由于贝卢斯科尼执政期间，经济几乎完全没有增长，结构性改革也几乎完全没有进行，所以这让投资者感到恐慌。而且贝卢斯科尼举止滑稽古怪，使得意大利政府在国外沦为笑柄，许多意大利人对此不满，因此他们也十分恐慌。

　　On October 9th Mr Berlusconi all but said he had thought better of the idea. Interviewed on one of his three television channels, the media billionaire declared himself “ready to stand aside”.

　　10月9日，贝卢斯科尼几乎说他经考虑后决定放弃这个想法。作为传媒界的一位亿万富翁，他拥有三个电视频道。在接受其中一个的采访中，他宣布自己“准备好退出竞选”了。

　　The wily tactician¹⁰ left some wriggle¹¹ room: his renunciation was to facilitate a grand alliance of the right; if it does not happen, he could make another U-turn. Some commentators¹² and rival politicians suspected a ruse¹³.

　　这位狡猾的战术家给自己留了退路：他放弃参选能够促进右派结成大的同盟，如果这样不行的话，他可以来个大转弯。一些评论家和政治对手怀疑这是一个计谋。

　　But there are good reasons for Mr Berlusconi to have reconsidered. Four months ago, he felt his undoubted charisma¹⁴ could revive the fortunes of the PdL, which has seen its poll ratings decline ever since he handed the candidate’s mantle¹⁵ to Angelino Alfano, a former minister. More recently, however, they have continued to fall, as the PdL has been immersed in a flood of corruption¹⁶ and other scandals involving its regional and local leaders. These reflect badly on Mr Berlusconi as they show what sort of men and women acquired positions of influence under his long leadership.

　　但是贝卢斯科尼有充足的理由重新进行考虑。四个月前，他觉得自己毫无疑问的领导魅力能够重新给自由人民党带来好运。自从曾任部长的安杰利诺·阿尔法诺接替贝卢斯科尼之后，自由人民党的民意调查支持率就开始下降。但是最近，该党陷入大量腐败及有关地区和地方领导人的丑闻之中，使得民调支持率继续下降。这给贝卢斯科尼带来耻辱，因为它们显示了在他长期的领导下，都是哪些人获得了有影响力的职位。

　　Antonio Piazza¹⁷, a regional PdL leader, is accused of slashing¹⁸ the tyres of a disabled driver who had the effrontery¹⁹ to use a parking bay, reserved for the disabled, in which the PdL dignitary liked to leave his Jaguar²⁰. Another PdL apparatchik was arrested on October 10th, accused of buying votes from the Calabrian mafia—the most worrying evidence yet of its penetration²¹ of northern Italian politics. According to a poll commissioned by RAI, Italy’s state broadcaster, Mr Berlusconi would lose to Mr Alfano if a primary election were held among right-wing voters.

　　自由人民党地区领导安东尼奥·皮耶萨（Antonio Piazza）受到指控称他划破了一个残疾人司机的轮胎。这位自由人民党高管喜欢将自己的路虎车停在残疾人专用的停车位上，而那个司机却十分放肆，使用了那个停车位。另一个自由人民党官员因向卡拉布利亚黑手党购买选票受到指控，于10月10日遭到逮捕，这是目前它渗入意大利北部政治的最令人担忧的证据。意大利国有广播公司--意大利广播电视公司的民意调查显示，如果初选在右翼选民中进行的话，贝卢斯科尼会输给阿尔法诺。

　　Much of Mr Berlusconi’s success in politics has been down to his ability to depict²² himself as a political outsider: someone far removed in speech and habits from the finagling party hacks²³ whom most voters regard as venal²⁴ and self-interested.

　　贝卢斯科尼取得政治成功的一大部分原因就是他能够将自己刻画为一个政治旁观者，在讲话和习惯上都与那些被大多数选民认为贪污腐败，自私自利，招摇撞骗的政客截然不同。

　　Ironically, the arrival in office last November of a technocratic²⁵ government of authentic²⁶ outsiders headed by Mario Monti has been lethal²⁷ to Mr Berlusconi’s image. Compared with the prime minister, an economics professor, Mr Berlusconi looks every inch the professional Roman power-broker. And the very disenchantment with Italy’s political class that helped launch Mr Berlusconi into a new career 19 years ago is now working to sustain Mr Monti’s popularity.

　　具有讽刺意味的是，去年十一月，马里奥蒙蒂带领下的由真正的政治旁观者组成的技术官僚政府上台，这极大的损害了贝卢斯科尼的形象。这位总理是一个经济学专家，与他相比，贝卢斯科尼怎么看都像是罗马的权利掮客专家。19年前，贝卢斯科尼因对意大利政治阶层不再抱有幻想开始了新的生涯，但是也是这一原因发挥作用让蒙蒂一直受到欢迎。

　　RAI’s poll found Mr Monti was by far Italians’ first choice for prime minister, ahead of Mr Berlusconi and Pier²⁸ Luigi Bersani, the leader of the biggest left-wing movement, the Democratic Party (PD). That is remarkable³⁰ considering the pain the prime minister has heaped on the electorate³¹ since taking office. This week brought another 11.6 billion ($15 billion) of budgetary adjustments, including further cuts to Italy’s already hard-pressed health services and a one percentage point increase in VAT⁶ albeit³² offset³³ by reductions in the two lowest rates of income tax.

　　意大利广播电视公司的民意调查发现，目前为止，蒙蒂超过了贝卢斯科尼和最大左翼运动—民主党的领导人贝尔萨尼(Pier Luigi Bersani)，成为意大利总理的首选。考虑到这位总理从上台之后给选民中添加的痛苦，这一结果很不寻常。本周又进行了116亿欧元（150美元）的预算调整，包括进一步缩减本已面临困境的医疗服务，以及将增值税提高一个百分点，虽然所得税的两项最低税率抵消了这一增长。

　　Will he or won’t he?

　　他会还是不会呢？

　　That is the second question hanging over Italy. Mr Monti has repeatedly said no to suggestions that he run for executive office next spring. On September 27th he finessed³⁴ his reply, saying he hoped the election would produce a clear result in favour of one side. But, if not, “I will be there”.

　　这是意大利面临的第二个问题。蒙蒂多次拒绝让他明年春天竞选行政办公室职位的建议。9月27日，他巧妙地回答说，他希望选举结果能够明显的倾向于一方。但是，如果不是这样的话，“我将会在那里的”。

　　A descent from Olympus, or rather, the seats in parliament reserved for life senators like Mr Monti, would be an ideal solution for a man who does not exactly relish³⁵ campaigning (though he has a nice line in dry humour, his rhetoric³⁶ style is more suited to the lecture hall than hustings). But will his intervention³⁷ be required?

　　对于那些不喜欢竞选的人（尽管他擅长冷幽默，讲话风格更适合演讲而不是竞选）来说，专门为像蒙蒂这样的终身参议院设立的奥林普斯血统或者说议会席位是一个理想的出路。但是他需要进行干涉吗？

　　As the PdL implodes³⁸, the odds³⁹ shorten on a left-wing victory. A primary election next month will decide if the PD is led to the polls by Mr Bersani, an ex-Communist, or Matteo Renzi, the young, centrist mayor of Florence. Mr Renzi admires Mr Monti, and might want him in a future government, which would almost certainly need the votes of parties to the left of the PD. That would be a problem for the prime minister, a declared anti-Keynesian.

　　由于自由人民党发生内爆，左翼获得胜利的可能性也变小。下个月举行的初选决定民主党将由前共产党员贝尔萨尼（Bersani）还是佛罗伦萨的年轻中间派马特奥里兹（Matteo Renzi）带领进行民意调查。里兹喜欢蒙蒂，可能希望他出现在未来的政府中，这几乎肯定需要民主党控制的政党的投票。对于声称自己是“反凯恩斯”的总理来说，这将是一个问题。

　　Hence Mr Berlusconi’s suggestion in the television interview that Mr Monti should lead a reunited centre-right embracing the PdL, the conservative Christian⁴⁰ Democrat²⁹ Union of the Centre (UDC), and even the party founded by his former lieutenant⁴¹, Gianfranco Fini, after he defected two years ago.

　　因此，贝卢斯科尼在电视访谈中建议蒙蒂领导重新联合的中右派，包括自由人民党，保守的基督教民主联合中心，甚至包括两年前他的前任副手叛党之后成立的政党。

　　There are snags. The sober professor is not a natural fit with the party of a man on trial on juvenile⁴² prostitution charges in connection with a young Moroccan runaway⁴³ and her alleged⁴⁴ participation⁴⁵ in notorious Bunga Bunga parties at Mr Berlusconi’s home. And Mr Monti is committed to free markets whereas few in the PdL have done more than pay them lip-service.

　　但是还存在一些问题。自由人民党的领导贝卢斯科尼因受到青少年卖淫指控接受审判，指控与一位年轻的摩洛哥离家出走者有关，她涉嫌参与贝卢斯科尼家举办的臭名昭著的性爱狂欢派对。而蒙蒂作为一位严肃的专家，与这一政党并非天然良配。而且蒙蒂致力于自由市场而大部分的自由人民党党员只是在口头上赞成而已。

　　Given the circles to be squared, Mr Monti might be aiming instead for the presidency⁴⁶, also up for grabs in 2013. Someone who has worked closely with him, argues, however, he is too “hands-on” for a post that offers more influence than control.

　　这一两难的问题都已经得到解决，蒙蒂可能就将目标转向将于2013年被争夺的总统位置。但是曾与他紧密共事过的人说，他过于喜欢动手实践，而总统这个位置提供更多的是影响力而不是控制力。

　　A member of Mr Monti’s government admitted that, barring a hung parliament, it was impossible for the moment to see how Mr Monti could be shoehorned into politics after next spring. Even so, he added, “It is just as hard to believe he will not be around.”

　　蒙蒂政府的一位成员承认，除非议会中各党势均力敌，要不然就不可能看到明年夏天之后蒙蒂被硬塞进政治活动中的时刻了。他还说，即使如此，要认为他不在政治圈内也是同样困难。 翻译：孙齐圣

　　1.prime minister 总理

　　例句:His style of public speaking is imitative of the prime minister.

　　他的演讲风格是模仿首相的。

　　2.television interview 电视访谈

　　例句:He treated the television interview as an opportunity to have a lash-out at the opposition⁴⁷ party.

　　他把电视采访作为一个机会, 向反对党进行猛烈抨击。

　　3.in favour of 支持

　　例句:All the affiliated⁴⁸ organizations are in favour of the plan.

　　所有的分支机构都赞成该计划。

　　4.the euro crisis 欧元危机

　　例句:Now that proposal is being blamed for spreading the euro crisis even deeper, to Portugal and perhaps Spain.

　　因为欧元债务危机现在蔓延到了葡萄牙甚至西班牙，人们开始指责这项提议。

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