经济学人:希腊退出欧元区 究竟是谁抛弃了谁?

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　　欧洲 希腊与欧元

　　Toil¹ and trouble

　　受苦受难

　　The government gets its latest austerity measures through, but only just

　　希腊新一轮紧缩政策终以微弱优势通过

　　Greece’s fragile coalition² government only narrowly averted³ disaster on November 7th when it won parliamentary approval for a drastic new austerity package. The package scraped through with 153 votes to 128 in the 300-member house.

　　11月7日，希腊风雨飘零的联合政府终于在国会通过了新一轮大规模财政紧缩的一揽子计划，但全过程命悬一线。在300人组成的国会中，该计划仅以153票对128票的微弱优势勉强得到通过。

　　Antonis Samaras, the prime minister, made the best of it, saying that “Greece has turned a page.” Meanwhile furious anti-austerity protesters outside parliament hurled⁴ stones and Molotov cocktails⁵ at police in what has become a grim ritual.

　　希腊总理安东尼斯·萨马拉斯（Antonis Samaras）对此大加吹捧，表示此刻“希腊翻开了崭新的一页”。而与此同时，紧缩政策的反对者们十分愤怒，他们在国会外向警察投掷石块和燃烧弹，这一严峻的事实已令人习以为常。

　　The debate over the latest austerity measures, the toughest yet, had turned angry even before lawmakers studied the 500-page “poly-law” before them. Presenting the four-year programme to parliament’s economics committee, Yannis Stournaras, the finance minister, fended⁶ off attacks from Syriza, the leftist opposition⁷ party, pointing out that if it were voted down Greece would lose a desperately⁸ needed 31.5 billion euro($40 billion) slice of its bail-out funding, would default on its next debt repayment⁹ and would surely then make a disorderly exit from the euro.

　　本次财政紧缩是目前规模最大的一次，甚至在立法机关亲自研究了这500页的“多方法案”之前，关于该政策的论辩已被激化。向国会经济委员会递呈这项四年计划的是希腊财长亚尼斯·斯图纳拉斯（Yannis Stournaras）。面对左翼反对党派“希腊极左翼联盟”（Syriza）的抨击，他回应称，若该计划未得到通过，那么，希腊将失去其急需的一笔315亿欧元（约400亿美元）救助金，进而无法在下一规定时间完成债务偿还，最终必然退出欧元区，引发经济混乱。

　　Mr Stournaras had gradually given ground over four months of negotiations¹⁰ with the “troika” of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF on the package to be implemented¹¹ in 2013 and 2014. Greek proposals for cuts in government operating costs were rejected as unrealistic. So they were replaced by “permanent” spending reductions, code for slashing¹² salaries and pensions.

　　斯图纳拉斯财长与“三驾马车”（troika，即欧盟、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织）就本次预计于2013年至2014年实行的紧缩计划进行过谈判。在这场长达4个多月的谈判中，斯图纳拉斯不断陷入被动。希腊政府曾提议削减政府运营资本，但“三驾马车”认为该计划不够现实而予以否决。因此，最终希腊政府接受了“永久性”减少政府开支，这表示公务员的收入和年金将遭到大幅削减。

　　Many elderly Greeks’ worst fears were realised when the law was unveiled. The biggest chunk¹³ of savings¹⁴ next year, about 4.6 billion euro, comes from reducing pensions, starting with a 5% cut for those on a modest 1,000 euro a month. “It feels as if the troika has selected the old for special punishment,” commented Constantina Athanassakis, a 70-year-old retired¹⁵ hairdresser.

　　这一法案出炉的同时，众多希腊老人的噩梦成真了。政府明年预计达到的财政储蓄额度中，约46亿欧元的大头将通过降低养老金来获得。而首当其冲的则是对每月1000欧元的低额年金削减5%。“看来三驾马车选择让老人来接受这特殊的惩罚。”年高70的退休理发师Constantina Athanassakis表示。

　　Salaries of better-paid public-sector workers such as central-bank employees, university teachers, judges and hospital doctors, will also be cut. Salaries at public-sector corporations are being reduced by 35% and capped at 5,000 euro a month, which means take-home pay of just 2,900 euro for bosses and fewer perks¹⁶. Some cuts will be backdated. Next year’s budget assumes the economy will shrink by another 4.5%, but local economists¹⁷ predict that a collapse¹⁸ in spending by cash-strapped consumers could lead to an even bigger fall.

　　而如央行职员、大学教师、法院法官和医院医生这些公共部门的高薪岗位，同样面临减薪。国有企业员工的降薪幅度达35%，月薪将不得高于5000欧元。换言之，领导们的税后月薪将仅为2900欧元，津贴也将大幅缩减。其中，部分减薪还将提前施行。据财政部估计，明年希腊经济规模将再次缩减4.5%。但希腊国内经济学家则预计，本已囊中羞涩的消费者，加上本次开支削减，将使希腊经济面临进一步衰退。

　　Antonis Samaras, the centre-right prime minister, promises this will be the “last and final” round of cuts. But Greece’s creditors¹⁹ are not so sure, given the poor record of all Greek governments on reform. The economy is not expected to start growing again before 2015. Few observers expect the government to keep to its new timetable of cutting 110,000 civil-service jobs by 2016. The privatisation programme has been disappointing. With Greece looking politically unstable²⁰ and facing two more years of recession, it will be hard to attract foreign investors²¹.

　　对此，身处中间偏右派立场的萨马拉斯总理承诺本轮紧缩将是“最后最后一次”。但鉴于希腊政府在改革上鲜有佳绩，其债权国则并不表示乐观。据预计，希腊经济将至2015年才有望再次回升。希腊政府最新出台了2016年前削减11万公务员岗位的安排，但并不为观察家们所看好。另外，其私有化计划也收效甚微。像希腊这样政局动荡，外加后两年经济不振的国家，实非海外投资者的佳选。

　　It does not help that Mr Samaras’s three-party coalition is increasingly fragile. His centre-right New Democracy party is expected to stay loyal at the next parliamentary test, approving the 2013 budget this weekend. Fotis Kouvelis, leader of the small Democratic Left, has also pledged to back the government. But his decision to abstain²² from the vote on November 7th has undermined his credibility with Mr Samaras. Mr Kouvelis could soon face a leadership challenge.

　　即使财政紧缩计划得到了通过，也无力挽回萨马拉斯总理领导下三党联合政府（由希腊“新民主党”、“泛希腊社会主义运动”与“左翼民主党”于今年6月协商联合成立的政府，译者注）走向衰弱的事实。萨马拉斯总理所在的中右翼“新民主党”（New Democracy）将支持下一轮国会的考验，即本周末通过2013年财政预算。联合政府中的小党“左翼民主党”（Democratic Left）党首佛提斯·科维利斯（Fotis Kouvelis）同样宣誓忠于政府决定。但11月7日法案投票当天，科维利斯宣布弃权。这一行为有损于他与萨马拉斯总理间的信任。因此，科维利斯此后不久可能乌纱不保。

　　Many observers also believe that Evangelos Venizelos, leader of the PanHellenic Socialist²³ Movement (Pasok), may be unseated. Mr Venizelos’s reluctance²⁴ when serving as finance minister to investigate the so-called Lagarde list of 2,000 Greeks with bank accounts in Geneva has annoyed many in his party. Several former ministers think they could do a better job of rebuilding Pasok’s popularity, which is at an all-time low of around 6%, according to the polls. Yet if Pasok fragments, the government risks losing its majority—and the prospect²⁵ of a Grexit will loom²⁶ yet again.

　　据众多观察家表示，同样面临失势的还有“泛希腊社会主义运动”（Pasok，简称“泛希社运”）领导人伊万格勒斯·维尼则罗斯（Evangelos Venizelos）。这位前财长在任期间曾拒绝调查所谓的“拉加德名单”，该名单中记录着2000名拥有日内瓦银行账户的希腊人信息（即2000名有逃税嫌疑的希腊人，译者注）。此行为引来其党内众多人士的不满。据民调显示，泛希社运的支持率跌至历史最低的6%。对此，众多前任要员都认为，在重振该党支持率上，自己一定比维尼则罗斯要干得出色。但若泛希社运一旦分裂，联合政府可能失去国会的多数席位。随之而来的，将是“希腊脱欧”危机的再一次降临。

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