经济学人:收缩包装 经济增长与经济衰退程度挂钩(2)

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　　from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55%. 从1820年和1870年的3.88%到自1950年3.06%——即使这两个时期中这些年份平均经济增长从1.4%上升到2.55%.

　　Instead, shorter and shallower slumps¹ led to rising long-term growth. 相反，时间更短，程度更浅的经济衰退导致了长期的经济增长。

　　Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of those since 1950. 收入在1820年和1870年中三分之一的年份下降，但是自从1950年仅在12%的年份中下降。

　　The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%. 每个经济衰退年份下降的比率也从3%降低到了1.2%.

　　So why have these “growth reversals” decreased in length and depth? 那么，为什么这些“增长逆转”在长度和深度方面下降了呢？

　　In another paper Messrs Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional explanations 在另一篇 Messrs Broadberry 和 Wallis发现，传统的经济扩张

　　such as demographic change or a sectoral² shift from volatile³ agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully⁴ explain the shift. 如从不稳定的农业到更加稳定的服务部门中的人口变动或部门转变——并不能完全解释这一转变。

　　More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be settled by impartial⁵ courts. 更为重要的是法律地位的上升，保证了纠纷由公正的法庭解决。

　　Before the modern era, elites⁶ would fight between themselves for the spoils of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption⁷ and the like. 在现代时期以前，精英会为经济增长的战利品相互争夺，并通过战争，腐败和类似这样的方式恢复经济以占取一部分利益。

　　Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening. 尊重法庭去解决争端阻止了这种事的发生。

　　With populist politicians challenging the authority of judges once again across the world, that is food for thought. 随着民粹主义政治家再次在全世界挑战法官的权威，这值得人们深思。

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