经济学人:刺激的涟漪效应(2)

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As workers become scarcer in America's tightening¹ labour market, firms have a greater incentive² to automate³. 随着工人在美国日渐收紧的劳动力市场中变得愈发稀缺，公司有了一种更大的动力进行自动化。

A second boon⁴ of a maturing cycle is higher productivity, which has risen at a snail's pace in all countries since the global financial crisis. 到期周期的第二个好处是越来越高的生产力，而生产力自金融危机以来在所有国家一直都是以蜗牛的速度在增长。

More capital spending by businesses will help. 来自商业的更多的资本开支将会推波助澜。

And in America, in particular, firms are under pressure to reorganise their businesses to meet expanding demand,  同时，尤其是在美国，各家公司都处于重组业务以满足扩张需求的压力之下，

because low unemployment makes it harder to find additional workers. 而原因是低失业使得找到额外的工人愈发困难。

America is not about to return to pre-2005 rates of productivity growth, whatever Mr Trump⁵ tweets. 无论特朗普“推”什么，美国都不会重回2005年之前的生产力增长率。

But there are tentative signs that the rate is starting to pick up from its dismal⁶, post-crisis slump⁷. 但是，种种暂时的迹象表明，这一比率正在开始从其惨不忍睹的后危机暴跌中拐头向上。

All expansions eventually come to an end. 所有的扩张终有结束。

Even if America does not inflict⁸ a recession on itself—through ill-judged trade policies, say—a global shock could do the job. 即便美国不是自己给自己造成衰退——比如说，因为欠考虑的贸易政策——某种全球冲击也可能做到这一点。

When that time comes, America's policymakers will end up regretting how government revenues were squandered⁹ on a badly designed tax cut. 届时，美国的决策者会为政府收入怎么会浪费在一次设计拙劣的减税上而懊悔。

The deficits¹⁰ that result will make it politically harder for Congress to agree on a fiscal¹¹ stimulus¹² to combat the next downturn. 由此所导致的赤字会让国会更难于在政治上达成一项财政刺激以抵御下次衰退。

Interest rates will in all likelihood peak at much lower levels than in the past, limiting the scope for big cuts to fight a recession. 利率十有八九会处于一种比过去低很多的水平，限制了大幅减息以应对衰退的余地。

In this, the worrywarts are entirely¹³ correct. 就此而言，居安思危完全正确。

But the immediate¹⁴ outlook is sunny. 但是，眼下的前景是光明的。

The global upswing is still young, and has momentum¹⁵. 全球性的增长仍然朝气蓬勃，势头强劲。

Mr Trump's policies have lifted the spirits of business leaders, who already had reason to be confident. 特朗普的政策提升了商界领袖的斗志，他们早就应该信心十足。对特朗普的批评者而言，这必然是一种难堪。

Galling¹⁶ though it must be to the president's critics, America's economy is well placed for 2018. 但是，对于2018年来说，美国经济是处境良好的。

 

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