IMF下调全球增长预期

 WASHINGTON, April 12 (Xinhua) -- The International Monetary¹ Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for global growth in 2016 to 3.2 percent, saying that the global economy grows at a sluggish² pace that leaves the world economy more exposed to risks.

The world economy is projected to grow 3.2 percent in 2016 and 3.5 percent in 2017, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point, respectively, compared with the IMF's forecasts in January, showed the IMF's flagship report World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.

"The downgraded forecasts reflect a broad-based slowdown across all country groups," said Maurice Obstfeld, chief economist³ at the IMF, at a press conference.

IMF lowers 2016 global growth forecast amid rising risks

"The weaker is growth, the greater the chance that the preceding risks, if some materialize, pull the world economy below stalling speed, where demand is insufficient⁴ to avoid a low-growth and deflationary equilibrium⁵."

The global lender forecast that the Chinese economy would expand by 6.5 percent in 2016 and 6.2 percent in 2017, both up 0.2 percentage point from its January predictions. The upgrade reflects China's announced stimulus⁶ policy and the trend that robust⁷ growth in the service sector⁸ offset⁹ recent weakness in manufacturing activity.

The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.4 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017, down 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point respectively from its previous forecasts.

In the current environment of weak growth, risks to the outlook are now more pronounced, said the IMF. The prominent among them are financial risks and risks of the economic origin, such as refugees issue and the possibility of UK's exit from the European Union, said Obstfeld.

The IMF warned that a return of financial turmoil¹⁰ will impair¹¹ confidence and threaten economic outlook. Emerging market economies will further see worsened corporate¹² balance sheets and sharp capital outflows.

"Another threat is that persistent¹³ slow growth has scarring effects that themselves reduce potential output and with it, consumption and investment," said the IMF. "Consecutive¹⁴ downgrades of future economic prospects¹⁵ carry the risk of a world economy that reaches stalling speed and falls into widespread secular¹⁶ stagnation¹⁷."

As for the Chinese economy, the IMF said there could be substantial spillover effects from China's transition toward more sustainable growth based on consumption and services. But "ultimately, that process will benefit both China and the world," said the IMF.

At the press conference, Obstfeld said that China's efforts to ensure policy transparency as well as smooth transition will support global growth. He called on China to further reform its state-owned enterprises, deal with non-performing loans, and strengthen regulatory framework.

The IMF emphasized a three-pronged approach of mutually reinforcing policy levers, including structure reforms, fiscal¹⁸ support and monetary policy measures.

It warned that policymakers need to make contingency¹⁹ plans and design collective measures for a possible future in case downside risks materialize.

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 insufficient   

adj.(for，of)不足的，不够的

参考例句：

• There was insufficient evidence to convict him.没有足够证据给他定罪。
• In their day scientific knowledge was insufficient to settle the matter.在他们的时代，科学知识还不能足以解决这些问题。

5 equilibrium   

n.平衡，均衡，相称，均势，平静

参考例句：

• Change in the world around us disturbs our inner equilibrium.我们周围世界的变化扰乱了我们内心的平静。
• This is best expressed in the form of an equilibrium constant.这最好用平衡常数的形式来表示。

6 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

7 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

8 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

9 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

10 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

11 impair   

v.损害，损伤；削弱，减少

参考例句：

• Loud noise can impair your hearing.巨大的噪音有损听觉。
• It can not impair the intellectual vigor of the young.这不能磨灭青年人思想活力。

12 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

13 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

14 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

15 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

16 secular   

n.牧师，凡人；adj.世俗的，现世的，不朽的

参考例句：

• We live in an increasingly secular society.我们生活在一个日益非宗教的社会。
• Britain is a plural society in which the secular predominates.英国是个世俗主导的多元社会。

17 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

18 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

19 contingency   

n.意外事件，可能性

参考例句：

• We should be prepared for any contingency.我们应该对任何应急情况有所准备。
• A fire in our warehouse was a contingency that we had not expected.库房的一场大火是我们始料未及的。