指数提供商 A股再遇MSCI明晟时刻

 It was a year ago that index provider MSCI contemplated¹ including Chinese domestic-listed A shares in its emerging market indices. The Chinese market was charging ahead, with the Shanghai Composite index peaking on June 12, two days after MSCI opted² not to include the shares.

一年前，指数提供商MSCI明晟考虑把中国内地上市的A股纳入其新兴市场股指。那时中国股市涨势如虹，上证综指(Shanghai Composite index)在6月12日、即明晟决定暂不纳入A股的两天后见顶。

Officials in Beijing sat on the sidelines encouraging the rise, much of it based on borrowed money, while the local media took the euphoria as further confirmation³ of the ascent⁴ of China itself.

北京的官员们在场边鼓励股市上涨（此轮涨势有很大一部分是依靠借来的钱哄抬起来的），同时中国媒体把股民的乐观情绪解读为中国处于上升势头的进一步证明。

The mood would quickly shift. After last summer’s crash when more than half of all A shares were suspended at one point — and big listed brokerages spent money supporting the market at the request of regulators — the market sits 40 per cent below its peak of last June.

结果市场情绪很快转变。去年夏天中国股市发生崩盘，一度有超过半数的A股停牌，同时大型上市券商应监管部门的请求砸重金进场救市。目前股指水平仍比去年6月的高点低40%。

Buying with borrowed money is of course like building a house on sand: it is inherently unstable⁵. Meanwhile, official buying to cushion the plunge⁶ in the market means that a larger part of the shareholder⁷ register is made up of the ever heavier hand of the state, through the China Securities Finance Corporation that lent money for the price support operation.

当然，用借来的钱购买就像在沙滩上建房子：它在本质上是不稳定的。与此同时，官方大举买入以遏止市场暴跌意味着，更多股东由越来越重的国家之手构成——通过为救市行动出借资金的中国证券金融股份有限公司（China Securities Finance Corp，简称：证金公司）。

The “A share market is walking in the long shadow of the rescue campaign toward normalisation”, Credit Suisse notes in a recent report.

“A股市场正在救市行动的长长阴影下走向正常化，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)在最近的一份报告中指出。

Now as the Shanghai market sits 15 per cent lower for 2016, the question over whether MSCI will include A shares has returned, with a decision expected on June 14.

现在，在上海股市进入2016年以来累计下跌15%的情况下，MSCI明晟会不会纳入A股的问题又回来了。预计该机构将在6月14日作出决定。

The subdued⁸ nature of the debate this year reflects how much has changed. The centre of gravity has swung in favour of pessimists⁹, partly because of the way authorities in Beijing responded to the plunge in the stock market and pressure on the renminbi. Sentiment continues to deteriorate¹⁰, despite some recent tinkering with the market rules.

今年辩论的低调特性反映出情况发生了多大的变化。重心已转向赞成悲观主义者的方向，部分原因在于中国官方回应股市暴跌的方式，以及人民币所受的压力。市场情绪继续恶化，尽管最近当局出台了一些调整市场规则的措施。

Last year, MSCI’s decision took place against a backdrop of lobbying pressures. On the one hand, large international investment houses such as BlackRock that had laughably small quotas¹¹ ($1.5bn in BlackRock’s case) were pushing against inclusion. On the other, those that were exposed to China — in part, precisely¹² because they anticipated that inclusion would lead to a wave of buying — were strong advocates.

去年，MSCI明晟是在游说压力之下做出决定的。一方面，贝莱德(BlackRock)等额度小得可笑的大型国际投资机构（贝莱德只有15亿美元）反对纳入A股。另一方面，那些已经拥有中国敞口（部分是因为他们预期A股被纳入新兴市场指数会导致一波买盘）的机构强烈提倡纳入A股。

Credit Suisse puts the chance of rejection¹³ at 60 per cent; Morgan Stanley is telling clients the likelihood is 50 per cent, while Goldman is the most bullish with a 70 per cent likelihood of inclusion.

瑞信估计今年不纳入的几率为60%；摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)告诉客户，这个几率是50%，而高盛(Goldman)最乐观，称纳入A股的几率高达70%。

Credit Suisse’s view did not stop it coming up with five stock picks that could be beneficiaries in the case of inclusion. Most of them offer exposures to sectors¹⁴ not available in Hong Kong, such as Kweichow Moutai, the maker¹⁵ of that strong alcoholic¹⁶ brew¹⁷.

瑞信的观点并没有阻止它挑出五只有望受益于A股被纳入指数的个股。这些个股大多提供在香港股市不能获得的行业敞口，如烈性酒酿造商贵州茅台(Kweichow Moutai)。

Even if MSCI does open up its indices, the move will not necessarily lead to a wave of forced buying by those who benchmark against these indices. Indeed, international brokerages estimate the buying will add up to no more than $16.5bn, or a mere¹⁸ 0.2 per cent of total market capitalisation of the A shares.

即使MSCI明晟真的开放其指数，此举也未必导致以这些指数为基准的投资机构掀起一波被迫买盘。事实上，国际券商估计，A股被纳入指数所导致的买盘加起来不会超过165亿美元，相当于A股总市值的区区0.2%。

Another development next month could be the extension of the Stock Connect scheme — a mechanism¹⁹ introduced in 2014 that gives all international investors²⁰ access to A shares. It is currently limited to Shanghai and Hong Kong but may be extended to Shenzhen. That too, though, is likely to prove incremental²¹.

下月的另一项发展可能是沪港通机制的扩展——2014年开通的沪港通让所有境外投资者能够买卖A股。该机制目前仅限于上海和香港，但可能扩展到深港通。不过，此举也很可能只产生增量效果。

Today, few strategists would make the argument that share prices in China are a great buying opportunity. There are big question marks over huge stretches of the economy, led by banks whose problem loan figures are questionable²² and unlikely to improve even if the central bank lowers interest rates.

目前几乎没有策略师主张中国的股价水平意味着买入良机。中国经济多个行业的头上悬挂着巨大的问号，尤其是银行业，其不良贷款数据是有问题的，而且即使央行降低利率也不太可能好转。

The structural²³ reform that could cut capacity dramatically and bring real profitability to state-owned enterprises seems to have been postponed²⁴. A weak currency also limits the attraction of the market to any foreign investors.

有可能大幅削减产能、并给国有企业带来真正盈利能力的结构性改革似乎已被推迟。人民币疲弱也限制了中国股市对境外投资者的吸引力。

In the past, the economy and the market seemed disconnected. Now they are moving together — with both emitting signals of gloom, if not outright²⁵ distress²⁶. Whatever MSCI decides won’t change that.

过去，中国的经济和市场似乎是脱节的。现在它们向一个方向移动——两者都发出黯淡（如果还算不上困境的话）信号。无论MSCI明晟怎么决定，都不会改变这个局面。

1 contemplated   

adj. 预期的 动词contemplate的过去分词形式

参考例句：

• The doctor contemplated the difficult operation he had to perform. 医生仔细地考虑他所要做的棘手的手术。
• The government has contemplated reforming the entire tax system. 政府打算改革整个税收体制。

2 opted   

v.选择，挑选( opt的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• She was co-opted onto the board. 她获增选为董事会成员。
• After graduating she opted for a career in music. 毕业后她选择了从事音乐工作。

3 confirmation   

n.证实，确认，批准

参考例句：

• We are waiting for confirmation of the news.我们正在等待证实那个消息。
• We need confirmation in writing before we can send your order out.给你们发送订购的货物之前，我们需要书面确认。

4 ascent   

n.(声望或地位)提高；上升，升高；登高

参考例句：

• His rapid ascent in the social scale was surprising.他的社会地位提高之迅速令人吃惊。
• Burke pushed the button and the elevator began its slow ascent.伯克按动电钮，电梯开始缓慢上升。

5 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

6 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

7 shareholder   

n.股东，股票持有人

参考例句：

• The account department have prepare a financial statement for the shareholder.财务部为股东准备了一份财务报表。
• A shareholder may transfer his shares in accordance with the law.股东持有的股份可以依法转让。

8 subdued   

adj. 屈服的，柔和的，减弱的 动词subdue的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He seemed a bit subdued to me. 我觉得他当时有点闷闷不乐。
• I felt strangely subdued when it was all over. 一切都结束的时候，我却有一种奇怪的压抑感。

9 pessimists   

n.悲观主义者( pessimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Pessimists tell us that the family as we know it is doomed. 悲观主义者告诉我们说，我们现在的这种家庭注定要崩溃。 来自辞典例句
• Experts on the future are divided into pessimists and optimists. 对未来发展进行预测的专家可分为悲观主义者和乐观主义者两类。 来自互联网

10 deteriorate   

v.变坏；恶化；退化

参考例句：

• Do you think relations between China and Japan will continue to deteriorate?你认为中日关系会继续恶化吗？
• He held that this would only cause the situation to deteriorate further.他认为，这只会使局势更加恶化。

11 quotas   

（正式限定的）定量( quota的名词复数 )； 定额； 指标； 摊派

参考例句：

• In fulfilling the production quotas, John made rings round all his fellow workers. 约翰完成生产定额大大超过他的同事们。
• Quotas of the means of production are allocated by the higher administrative bodies to the lower ones. 物资指标按隶属关系分配。

12 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

13 rejection   

n.拒绝，被拒，抛弃，被弃

参考例句：

• He decided not to approach her for fear of rejection.他因怕遭拒绝决定不再去找她。
• The rejection plunged her into the dark depths of despair.遭到拒绝使她陷入了绝望的深渊。

14 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

15 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

16 alcoholic   

adj.（含）酒精的，由酒精引起的；n.酗酒者

参考例句：

• The alcoholic strength of brandy far exceeds that of wine.白兰地的酒精浓度远远超过葡萄酒。
• Alcoholic drinks act as a poison to a child.酒精饮料对小孩犹如毒药。

17 brew   

v.酿造，调制

参考例句：

• Let's brew up some more tea.咱们沏些茶吧。
• The policeman dispelled the crowd lest they should brew trouble.警察驱散人群，因恐他们酿祸。

18 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

19 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

20 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

21 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

22 questionable   

adj.可疑的，有问题的

参考例句：

• There are still a few questionable points in the case.这个案件还有几个疑点。
• Your argument is based on a set of questionable assumptions.你的论证建立在一套有问题的假设上。

23 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

24 postponed   

vt.& vi.延期，缓办，（使）延迟vt.把…放在次要地位；[语]把…放在后面（或句尾）vi.（疟疾等）延缓发作（或复发）

参考例句：

• The trial was postponed indefinitely. 审讯无限期延迟。
• The game has already been postponed three times. 这场比赛已经三度延期了。

25 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

26 distress   

n.苦恼，痛苦，不舒适；不幸；vt.使悲痛

参考例句：

• Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。
• Please don't distress yourself.请你不要忧愁了。