2014年经济学人 埃博拉的扩展 疏通还是围堵

The spread of Ebola

Bridges or walls

A panicky response in the West may worsen conditions in west Africa

THE death toll¹ from Ebola in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three most affected² countries in west Africa, now stands at around 3,900. Among cases diagnosed outside Africa, the total is one: Thomas Duncan, a Liberian national, who died in Texas on October 8th. Yet fear of Ebola in relatively³ unaffected countries risks making the tragedy in Africa worse.

On October 3rd Bobby Jindal, the Republican governor of Louisiana, called for flights from “Ebola-stricken” countries to America to be suspended. Other Republican politicians have done the same. Plenty of African countries have already introduced flight bans. Some Western airlines have also altered their schedules.

Public-health experts oppose shutting countries off. Humanitarian⁴ aid and medical staff struggle to get to afflicted⁵ areas, worsening the original outbreaks. Some would-be travellers find other routes that are harder to police. The economic consequences are grave. And it is a bit more complicated than the likes of Mr Jindal imply.

Dirk Brockmann, a specialist in complex networks at Humboldt University in Berlin, has used air-transport data to study how Ebola might spread across borders. His research, which assumes that a normal flight schedule is in operation, calculates how probable it is that an infected person boarding a plane in the worst-affected countries—Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, in particular—will disembark in each of dozens of other destinations.

Mr Brockmann's work offers three big messages. First, the risks to Western countries remain relatively low, even with normal flight schedules. For every 100 infected passengers embarking⁶ in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, 84 would normally disembark at another African airport. Three would arrive in Britain and France; only one in America. That infected people must get onto a plane in the first place further reduces the absolute risks. Well-prepared, well-funded health systems will be able to cope.

Second, if a country is truly intent on keeping Ebola out, it has to go further than banning flights from the worst-affected places. Global hubs are also likely to spread the disease. America's single Ebola fatality⁷ may have disembarked in Dallas but the first leg of his journey from Monrovia, Liberia's capital, was to Brussels. Airports in London and Paris play a big part in linking Sierra Leone and Guinea to the rest of the world. Calls to cut off west Africa look, in Mr Brockmann's phrase, like “19th-century thinking”. Grandstanding might be more accurate.

There is a role for better screening of passengers from affected areas; on October 8th America said it planned to start. But to screen well, it helps to know how travellers are moving around the system. That is the third lesson of the model: many passengers will find less predictable routes to their destinations if they must. Stopping flights between Conakry in Guinea and Charles de Gaulle in Paris, for example, increases the likelihood that people will fly to Dubai or to Abidjan in Ivory Coast. Others will eschew⁸ airports altogether: border crossings into Kenya are reportedly crowded with west Africans who have travelled overland in packed buses instead of taking flights. Turning your back on Ebola is not the same as stopping it.

1 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

2 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

3 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

4 humanitarian   

n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者

参考例句：

• She has many humanitarian interests and contributes a lot to them.她拥有很多慈善事业，并作了很大的贡献。
• The British government has now suspended humanitarian aid to the area.英国政府现已暂停对这一地区的人道主义援助。

5 afflicted   

使受痛苦，折磨( afflict的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• About 40% of the country's population is afflicted with the disease. 全国40%左右的人口患有这种疾病。
• A terrible restlessness that was like to hunger afflicted Martin Eden. 一阵可怕的、跟饥饿差不多的不安情绪折磨着马丁·伊登。

6 embarking   

乘船( embark的现在分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• He's embarking on a new career as a writer. 他即将开始新的职业生涯——当一名作家。
• The campaign on which were embarking was backed up by such intricate and detailed maintenance arrangemets. 我们实施的战争，须要如此复杂及详细的维护准备。

7 fatality   

n.不幸，灾祸，天命

参考例句：

• She struggle against fatality in vain.她徒然奋斗反抗宿命。
• He began to have a growing sense of fatality.他开始有一种越来越强烈的宿命感。

8 eschew   

v.避开，戒绝

参考例句：

• Eschew fattening foods if you want to lose weight.你如想减肥，就不要吃致肥的食物。
• Good kid should eschew bad company.好孩子应避免交坏朋友。