2014年经济学人 油价下跌 赚了还是赔了？

Cheaper oil

Winners and losers

America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices; its most strident critics don't

IN EARLY October the IMF looked at what might happen to the world economy if conflict in Iraq caused an oil-price shock. Fighters from Islamic State (IS) were pushing into the country's north and the fund worried about a sharp price rise, of 20% in a year. Global GDP would fall by 0.5-1.5%, it concluded. Equity¹ prices in rich countries would decline by 3-7%, and inflation would be at least half a point higher.

IS is still advancing.Russia, the world's third-biggest producer, is embroiled² inUkraine.Iraq,Syria,Nigeria and Libya, oil producers all, are in turmoil³. But the price of Brent crude fell over 25% from 115 abarrel in mid-June to under 85 inmid-October, before recovering a little. Such a shift has global consequences. Who are the winners and losers?

The first winner is the world economy itself. A 10% change in the oil price is associated with around a 0.2% change in global GDP, says Tom Helbling of the IMF. A price fall normally boosts GDP by shifting resources from producers to consumers, who are more likely to spend their gains than wealthy sheikhdoms. If increased supply is the driving force, the effect is likely to be bigger—as in America, where shale⁴ gas drove prices down relative to Europe and, says the IMF, boosted manufactured exports by 6% compared with the rest of the world. But if it reflects weak demand, consumers may save the windfall.

Today's falling prices are caused by shifts in both supply and demand. The world's slowing economy, and stalled recoveries in Europe and Japan, are reining⁵ back the demand for oil. But there has been a big supply shock, too. Thanks largely to America, oil production since early 2013 has been running at 1m-2mbarrels per day (b/d) higher than the year before. Other influences are acting⁶ as a brake on the world economy. But a price cut of 25% for oil, if maintained, should mean that global GDP will be roughly 0.5% higher than it would be otherwise.

Some countries stand to gain a lot more than that average, and others, to lose out. The world produces just over 90mb/d of oil. At 115 abarrel, that is worth roughly 3.8 trillion a year; at 85, just 2.8 trillion. Any country or group that consumes more than it produces gains from the 1 trillion transfer—importers, most of all.

China is the world's second-largest net importer of oil. Based on 2013 figures, every 1 drop in the oil price saves it an annual 2.1 billion. The recent fall, if sustained, lowers its import bill by 60 billion, or 3%. Most of its exports are manufactured goods whose prices have not fallen. Unless weak demand changes that, its foreign currency will go further, and living standards should rise.

1 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

2 embroiled   

adj.卷入的；纠缠不清的

参考例句：

• He became embroiled in a dispute with his neighbours. 他与邻居们发生了争执。
• John and Peter were quarrelling, but Mary refused to get embroiled. 约翰和彼得在争吵，但玛丽不愿卷入。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

4 shale   

n.页岩，泥板岩

参考例句：

• We can extract oil from shale.我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
• Most of the rock in this mountain is shale.这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。

5 reining   

勒缰绳使（马）停步( rein的现在分词 )； 驾驭； 严格控制； 加强管理

参考例句：

• "That's a fine bevy, Ma'm,'said Gerald gallantly, reining his horse alongside the carriage. "太太！好一窝漂亮的云雀呀！" 杰拉尔德殷勤地说，一面让自己的马告近塔尔顿的马车。
• I was a temperamental genius in need of reining in by stabler personalities. 我是个需要由更稳重的人降服住的神经质的天才。

6 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。