2018年经济学人 聪明的投资者:这次不一样(1)

 

More significant still is the behaviour of long-term interest rates.

然而，更值得关注的长期利率的表现。

They have fallen steadily¹ since the 1980s and remain close to historic lows.

自上世纪80年代以来，它们一直在稳步下跌，目前仍旧接近历史低点。

And that underpins² all sorts of other asset prices.

而且，这支撑起了所有种类的其他资产价格。

A widespread concern is that the Fed and its peers have grossly distorted bond markets and, by extension, the price of all assets.

一种普遍的关切是，美联储及其同行严重地扭曲了债券市场。相应地，也扭曲了所有资产的价格。

Warren Buffett, the most famous disciple³ of Ben Graham, said this week that stocks would look cheap in three years' time if interest rates were one percentage-point higher, but not if they were three percentage points higher.

本周，格林汉姆最著名的信徒沃伦·巴菲特称，如果利率再高一个百分点，股票在3年内期看上去会是便宜的；但是，如果再高3个百分点，就不便宜了。

But if interest rates and bond yields were unjustifiably low, inflation would take off - and puzzlingly it hasn't.

但是，如果利率和债券收益率不合理地处于低位，通胀就会飙升——令人困惑的是，通胀没有飙升。

This suggests that factors beyond the realm of monetary⁴ policy have been a bigger cause of low long-term rates.

这表明，某些处于货币政策领域之外的因素是长期利率处于低位的一个更大的原因。

The most important is an increase in the desire to save, as ageing populations set aside a larger share of income for retirement⁵.

最重要的是储蓄愿望的上升，这是因为老龄化人口把退休收入中的更大的一部分留了出来。

Just as the supply of saving has risen, demand for it has fallen.

就在储蓄的供给增加了的同时，对储蓄的需求却下降了。

Stagnant⁶ wages and the lower price of investment goods mean companies are flush with cash.

停滞的工资以及投资商品的较低价格意味着各家公司都是现金充裕。

All this suggests that interest rates will stay low by historical standards.

这一切表明，以历史标准连连看，利率将处于低位。

Still the most dangerous, anti-Graham motto of investing is “this time is different”.

然而，最危险的反格林汉姆的投资格言是“这次不一样”。

It would be daft to assume that asset prices must remain high come what may.

认为不论如何资产价格必须维持在高位会是愚蠢的。

Many hazards could derail the economy and financial markets, from a debt crisis in China to an American-led trade war or an outbreak of fighting on the Korean peninsula.

诸多风险——从中国的债务危机到美国发起的贸易战争，抑或是朝鲜半岛战事爆发——都可能让经济体和金融市场出轨。

And when the next recession comes, policymakers have less fiscal⁷ and monetary ammunition⁸ to fight it than they had in previous downturns.

而且，当下次危机来临时，决策者比他们在前几次衰退中少了一些财政和货币弹药来抗击衰退。

Prudence⁹ therefore suggests caution.

因而，谨慎意味着避免可能的风险。

1 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

2 underpins   

n.基础材料( underpin的名词复数 )；基础结构；（学说、理论等的）基础；（人的）腿v.用砖石结构等从下面支撑（墙等）( underpin的第三人称单数 )；加固（墙等）的基础；为（论据、主张等）打下基础；加强

参考例句：

• A powerful sense of mission underpins everything he does. 一种强烈的使命感支撑他所做的一切。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His presence at the crime underpins the case against him. 案子发生时他在场对他更不利。 来自辞典例句

3 disciple   

n.信徒，门徒，追随者

参考例句：

• Your disciple failed to welcome you.你的徒弟没能迎接你。
• He was an ardent disciple of Gandhi.他是甘地的忠实信徒。

4 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

5 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

6 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

7 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

8 ammunition   

n.军火，弹药

参考例句：

• A few of the jeeps had run out of ammunition.几辆吉普车上的弹药已经用光了。
• They have expended all their ammunition.他们把弹药用光。

9 prudence   

n.谨慎，精明，节俭

参考例句：

• A lack of prudence may lead to financial problems.不够谨慎可能会导致财政上出现问题。
• The happy impute all their success to prudence or merit.幸运者都把他们的成功归因于谨慎或功德。