2018年经济学人 美国经济:特朗普的繁荣能持久吗?(1)

 

Leaders

领导者

The American economy: Can the Trump¹ boom last?

美国经济：特朗普的繁荣能持久吗？

America's president is not the architect of American strength. But in the short term, things will go his way.

特朗普不是美国增长的造就者。但是，短期内，事态是被限定在走他的路上面的。

There is often more fakery than truth in a tweet from President Donald Trump.

特朗普的推文中经常是假的多于真的。

But on one subject he is broadly right.

但是，在一个问题上，他总的来说是对的。

America's economy is in good shape.

美国经济事态良好。

Business confidence is high.

商业信心高亢。

Jobs are plentiful².

就业岗位充裕。

Last month non-farm companies added 228,000 workers to their payrolls³.

上个月，非农公司给它们的工资单上增加了228000名工人。

The unemployment rate is 4.1%, the lowest figure for more than a decade.

失业率是4.1%，为十多年来的最低数字。

The availability of jobs is drawing more of the working-age population into the labour force.

工作之可得正在吸引越来越多的劳动适龄人口加入劳动大军。

Wages are growing in real terms with some of the biggest gains going to low-paid workers.

按照实际水平计算，工资正在增长，其中最大的所得流向了低工资工人。

Mr Trump over-eggs things, of course.

特朗普当然是要反复吹嘘啦。

He claims each good jobs report and each new peak in the S&P 500 as his own achievement.

他声称，每一份靓丽的就业报告和标普500的每一次新高都是他的功劳。

In fact, he was lucky in his inheritance.

事实上，在遗产方面，他是幸运的。

The market has risen by 25% since his election, but is up by 195% since 2009.

自他当选以来，市场上涨了25%，但是自2009年以来上涨了195%。

The unemployment rate fell from a peak of 10% to 4.7% under Barack Obama and then to 4.1% on Mr Trump's watch.

在奥巴马治下，失业率从高峰时的10%降到了4.7%。之后，在特朗普监护中，又降到了4.1%。

His administration says that a mix of deregulation and corporate-tax cuts will spur sustained GDP growth of 3%, well above the 2% average of recent years.

他的政府表示，去监管和消减企业税的结合将激发出持续的3%的GDP增长，远远高于这几年2%的平均水平。

As the economy approaches full employment, an astonishing pickup⁴ in productivity would be needed to accomplish that.

随着经济接近完全就业，为了实现这一目标，生产力方面某种令人吃惊的改善是事所必需的了。

But Trump-bashers overstate their case, too.

但是，特朗普的批评者也是言过其实了。

They dismiss the optimism of consumers and bosses as sentiment, not substance.

他们不把消费者和雇主的乐观当回事，认为那不过是一种情绪而已，并非是实实在在的。

They warn that the stockmarket is dangerously overvalued and that America's expansion, which is in its 102nd month, must soon falter⁵.

他们警告说，股市被危险地高估了，正处于第102个月之中的美国扩张不久必将举步维艰。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 plentiful   

adj.富裕的，丰富的

参考例句：

• Their family has a plentiful harvest this year.他们家今年又丰收了。
• Rainfall is plentiful in the area.这个地区雨量充足。

3 payrolls   

n.（公司员工的）工资名单( payroll的名词复数 )；（公司的）工资总支出，工薪总额

参考例句：

• Indices of employment, payrolls, and production steadied in February 1931931年2月，就业、工资额和生产指数稳定。 来自辞典例句
• Wall Street responded to the payrolls figures with gusto. 华尔街对就业数据作出了积极的反应。 来自互联网

4 pickup   

n.拾起，获得

参考例句：

• I would love to trade this car for a pickup truck.我愿意用这辆汽车换一辆小型轻便卡车。||The luck guy is a choice pickup for the girls.那位幸运的男孩是女孩子们想勾搭上的人。

5 falter   

vi.(嗓音)颤抖，结巴地说；犹豫；蹒跚

参考例句：

• His voice began to falter.他的声音开始发颤。
• As he neared the house his steps faltered.当他走近房子时，脚步迟疑了起来。