2018年经济学人 朝鲜经济:下一个越南？别指望了(2)

 

Nevertheless North Korea is different from Vietnam in three ways that could hurt.

不过朝鲜和越南存在三方面的不同点，这或许对朝鲜而言是个打击。

In Vietnam's south, its economic heartland, collectivisation of farms and factories lasted just ten years before private ownership was restored.

越南南部是它的经济腹地，在恢复私人所有制之前，这里的农业和工业集体化已经持续了十年。

People who had previously¹ run businesses were able to get quickly back in the game.

以前经营商业的人可以迅速在这场游戏中恢复。

After 65 years of juche, the national ideology² of self-reliance, North Koreans are starting from scratch.

经过65年的自主（自力更生的国家意识形态）后，朝鲜正在从头开始。

The growth of informal food and goods markets in recent years shows some entrepreneurship, but the learning curve for big firms will be much steeper.

近些年非正规食品和商品市场的增长展现出了一些企业家精神，但是对大型公司的经验学习曲线将更加崎岖。

The structure of North Korea's economy also complicates³ matters.

朝鲜经济的结构也使得这些问题复杂化。

More than 70% of the workforce⁴ in both Vietnam in the mid-1980s and China in the late 1970s (when its economic reforms started) was in agriculture.

20世纪80年代中期的越南以及20世纪70年代后期的中国（当时刚开始经济改革），两国超过70%的劳动力都在农业领域。

Simple changes to incentivesletting farmers profit from the sale of their own crops, for example-led to a surge of agricultural productivity.

对激励因素做出简单的变化—例如，让农民从自产的农作物中获利—就能引起农业生产力的剧增。

And the exodus⁵ of workers from farms generated a pool of cheap labour for factories, fuelling the rise of export industries.

并且农业工人的大批离去为工业提供了大批廉价劳动力，刺激了出口产业的增长。

By contrast, more than 60% of North Korea's population already lives in cities.

相比之下，朝鲜超过60%的人口已经生活在了城市。

For big productivity gains, the government will need to overhaul⁶ moribund⁷ industries.

对于生产率的大幅提高而言，政府将需要对其停滞不前的工业进行改革。

In that respect North Korea resembles eastern Europe after the Soviet⁸ Union's demise⁹,

在这一方面，朝鲜就像是苏联瓦解后的东欧一样，

says Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank in Washington.

白宫智囊团成员、彼得森国际经济研究所的马库斯·诺兰说道。

"There will be losers," he says. Unemployment might soar. Privatisation could increase already rampant¹⁰ corruption¹¹ even further.

“将会出现输家，”他说。失业率或许会激增。私有化可能会进一步刺激已存在的猖獗的腐败。

Sitting between China, South Korea and Japan, North Korea should find it easy to attract capital to create jobs.

坐落于中国、韩国与日本之间，朝鲜应该能够轻易吸引资本创造就业。

But its record for foreign investors¹² is poor: it seized South Korean assets at their showpiece joint¹³ industrial park in 2016 when relations deteriorated¹⁴.

但是朝鲜的外资记录很糟糕：2016年，朝韩两国关系恶化时，朝鲜在联合工业园区内查封了韩国的展柜。

Another weakness for North Korea is demography¹⁵.

朝鲜的另一个弱势是其人口。

When Vietnam and China embarked¹⁶ on reforms they were both young countries, with median ages of about 20.

越南和中国开始改革时，两国均为年轻的国家，人口平均年龄约为20岁。

They had many workers and few elderly dependent on them. In North Korea, the median age is already 34, making it even older than Vietnam today.

两国内有很多劳动力，需要赡养的老年人很少。在朝鲜，他们的平均年龄已是34岁了，比如今的越南平均年龄还大。

As China ages, officials worry that it will get old before it gets rich. In North Korea the risk is that it will get old while it is still impoverished¹⁷.

随着中国人口年纪的增长，官方担心国家在富裕前，人口就已经衰老。在朝鲜，其风险在于，人口衰老时，国家仍未脱贫。

All the more reason for Mr. Kim to get cracking on economic reform. He may have little hope of building the next Vietnam.

金正恩更有理由开始经济改革。或许他建立下一个越南的希望渺茫。

But better that he look to the outside world than keep North Korea entombed.

但是好在他将目光投向了外边的世界而不是让朝鲜与世隔绝。

1 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

2 ideology   

n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识

参考例句：

• The ideology has great influence in the world.这种思想体系在世界上有很大的影响。
• The ideal is to strike a medium between ideology and inspiration.我的理想是在意识思想和灵感鼓动之间找到一个折衷。

3 complicates   

使复杂化( complicate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• What complicates the issue is the burden of history. 历史的重负使问题复杂化了。
• Russia as a great and ambitious power gravely complicates the situation. 俄国作为一个强大而有野心的国家，使得局势异常复杂。

4 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

5 exodus   

v.大批离去，成群外出

参考例句：

• The medical system is facing collapse because of an exodus of doctors.由于医生大批离去，医疗系统面临崩溃。
• Man's great challenge at this moment is to prevent his exodus from this planet.人在当前所遇到的最大挑战，就是要防止人从这个星球上消失。

6 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

7 moribund   

adj.即将结束的，垂死的

参考例句：

• The moribund Post Office Advisory Board was replaced.这个不起作用的邮局顾问委员会已被替换。
• Imperialism is monopolistic,parasitic and moribund capitalism.帝国主义是垄断的、寄生的、垂死的资本主义。

8 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

9 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

10 rampant   

adj.(植物)蔓生的；狂暴的，无约束的

参考例句：

• Sickness was rampant in the area.该地区疾病蔓延。
• You cannot allow children to rampant through the museum.你不能任由小孩子在博物馆里乱跑。

11 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

12 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

13 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

14 deteriorated   

恶化，变坏( deteriorate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Her health deteriorated rapidly, and she died shortly afterwards. 她的健康状况急剧恶化，不久便去世了。
• His condition steadily deteriorated. 他的病情恶化，日甚一日。

15 demography   

n.人口统计，人口学

参考例句：

• Demography is the analysis of population variables.人口学是对人口变量的分析。
• It was once a rule of demography that people have fewer children as their countries get richer.按人口统计学的一贯规律，一个国家里的人民越富有，他们所拥有的孩子就越少。

16 embarked   

乘船( embark的过去式和过去分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• We stood on the pier and watched as they embarked. 我们站在突码头上目送他们登船。
• She embarked on a discourse about the town's origins. 她开始讲本市的起源。

17 impoverished   

adj.穷困的，无力的，用尽了的v.使（某人）贫穷( impoverish的过去式和过去分词 )；使（某物）贫瘠或恶化

参考例句：

• the impoverished areas of the city 这个城市的贫民区
• They were impoverished by a prolonged spell of unemployment. 他们因长期失业而一贫如洗。 来自《简明英汉词典》