2019年经济学人 伊朗伊斯兰革命四十年(2)

 

America has rarely been able to think clearly about Iran; not least because the regime’s followers¹ held 52 of its citizens hostage for 444 days after seizing the American embassy in Tehran in 1979. But if Iran has recently extended its power it is in large part because of the mess caused by America’s invasion of Iraq in 2003.

美国很少能清晰考虑伊朗问题；尤其是因为1979年，伊朗政权的追随者占领了美国驻德黑兰大使馆，并将52名美国公民作为人质扣押了444天。但是如果伊朗近期扩大其权力，很大程度上是因为2003年美国入侵伊拉克所造成的混乱。

Iran is confusing and infuriating to deal with. Power is shared ambiguously between a weak president, who is elected from a field of loyalists and deals with day-to-day problems, and a nebulous revolutionary caste that controls the instruments of coercion². Sometimes Iran has proved pragmatic, for instance acquiescing³ in America’s overthrow⁴ of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Yet, under the supreme⁵ leader, Ali Khamenei, ideology⁶ often trumps⁸ rational policymaking. Neither confrontation⁹ nor diplomacy¹⁰ can reliably sway the mullahs. And neither economic carrots nor sanctions seem to work as an alternative.

伊朗令人困惑和愤怒。权力模糊分散在两处，从忠诚支持者中选出的软弱总统处理日常问题，而模糊的革命阶级控制着高压手段。有时伊朗被证明是务实的，如默许美国推翻阿富汗塔利班政权。然而，在最高领袖阿里?哈梅内伊的领导下，意识形态往往胜过理性决策。无论是对峙还是外交都不能有效撼动毛拉。经济诱饵或经济制裁似乎都不是良策。

That said, Mr Obama’s accord, the JCPOA, succeeded in freezing Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of many sanctions. Mr Trump⁷ thinks this was a terrible deal that failed to halt the nukes for good or stop Iran from stirring trouble around the region. Renewed sanctions are pushing Iran into a deep economic crisis. But re-imposing them when Iran was abiding¹¹ by the JCPOA casts America as the rogue¹². This has deepened the split with European allies, which have created a system to help firms sidestep them. America has bound itself more tightly to autocratic Arab regimes, such as Saudi Arabia, that have themselves fomented¹³ instability and radicalism¹⁴. What “moral clarity” can America claim in denouncing Iran’s human-rights abuses when it turns a blind eye to those committed by its friends?

也就是说，奥巴马的伊核协议作为解除诸多制裁的条件，成功冻结了伊朗核计划。特朗普认为这项协议很糟糕，既未能永久停止核武器，也未能阻止伊朗在该地区制造麻烦。新一轮的制裁将伊朗置于严重的经济危机。但强迫伊朗重新遵守“伊核协议”会让美国扮演流氓角色。而这样做会加深美国与欧洲盟友的分歧，而欧洲盟友已创建了一个系统来帮助公司避开问题。美国与阿拉伯独裁政权联系更加紧密，如沙特阿拉伯，而这些国家本身会煽动不稳定和激进主义。在美国对其盟友所犯罪行熟视无睹时，其在谴责伊朗侵犯人权方面又能有什么“道德清晰度”呢?

1 followers   

追随者( follower的名词复数 )； 用户； 契据的附面； 从动件

参考例句：

• the followers of Mahatma Gandhi 圣雄甘地的拥护者
• The reformer soon gathered a band of followers round him. 改革者很快就获得一群追随者支持他。

2 coercion   

n.强制，高压统治

参考例句：

• Neither trickery nor coercion is used to secure confessions.既不诱供也不逼供。
• He paid the money under coercion.他被迫付钱。

3 acquiescing   

v.默认，默许( acquiesce的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Japan were acquiescing in being strangled. 日本默然同意别人把它捏死。 来自辞典例句
• Smith urged Ariza to retract his trade request and be patient several times before finally acquiescing. 在阿里扎提出要被交易时，在答应之前，他曾经数次要求对方多加考虑。 来自互联网

4 overthrow   

v.推翻，打倒，颠覆；n.推翻，瓦解，颠覆

参考例句：

• After the overthrow of the government,the country was in chaos.政府被推翻后，这个国家处于混乱中。
• The overthrow of his plans left him much discouraged.他的计划的失败使得他很气馁。

5 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

6 ideology   

n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识

参考例句：

• The ideology has great influence in the world.这种思想体系在世界上有很大的影响。
• The ideal is to strike a medium between ideology and inspiration.我的理想是在意识思想和灵感鼓动之间找到一个折衷。

7 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

8 trumps   

abbr.trumpets 喇叭；小号；喇叭形状的东西；喇叭筒v.（牌戏）出王牌赢（一牌或一墩）( trump的过去式 )；吹号公告，吹号庆祝；吹喇叭；捏造

参考例句：

• On the day of the match the team turned up trumps. 比赛那天该队出乎意料地获得胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Every time John is late getting home he trumps up some new excuse. 每次约翰晚回家都会编造个新借口。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

10 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

11 abiding   

adj.永久的，持久的，不变的

参考例句：

• He had an abiding love of the English countryside.他永远热爱英国的乡村。
• He has a genuine and abiding love of the craft.他对这门手艺有着真挚持久的热爱。

12 rogue   

n.流氓；v.游手好闲

参考例句：

• The little rogue had his grandpa's glasses on.这淘气鬼带上了他祖父的眼镜。
• They defined him as a rogue.他们确定他为骗子。

13 fomented   

v.激起，煽动（麻烦等）( foment的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• His words finally fomented her hostility. 他的言词终于引发了她的敌意。 来自辞典例句
• His legs should be fomented. 应当对他的双腿进行热敷。 来自互联网

14 radicalism   

n. 急进主义, 根本的改革主义

参考例句：

• His radicalism and refusal to compromise isolated him. 他的激进主义与拒绝妥协使他受到孤立。
• Education produced intellectual ferment and the temptations of radicalism. 教育带来知识界的骚动，促使激进主义具有了吸引力。