2019年经济学人 阿根廷经济—环境所迫(2)

 

Even if Mr Fernandez wins outright¹ in October (avoiding a run-off election), he will not be sworn into office until December.

即使费尔南德斯在10月获胜（避免决选），他也要到12月才能就职。

But his words already have the power to move markets and shape the economy.

但他的话已经具备了推动市场和改革经济的力量。

His claim on August 30th that Argentina was in "virtual default" deepened the market sell-off

他在8月30日宣称，阿根廷处于“虚拟违约”中，这加剧了市场抛售

(Standard & Poor's, a rating agency, also declared that there had been a temporary, selective default on some of Argentina's obligations).

（评级机构标准普尔公司也宣布阿根廷的某些债务出现了暂时的选择性违约）。

Creditors² will not renegotiate their debts with Mr Macri's lame-duck government,

债权人不会与马克里没用的政府就债务进行重新谈判，

fearing that Mr Fernandez might force bigger concessions³ later. The same worry may give pause to the IMF.

因为担心费尔南德斯可能会在以后迫使他们做出更大让步。同样的担忧可能会让IMF踌躇不前。

Why should it give billions of additional dollars to Argentina,

当其下一任总统指责IMF帮助制造了

when its next president accuses it of helping⁴ to create a "social catastrophe⁵" of rising prices, unemployment and poverty?

物价上涨、失业和贫困等“社会灾难”时，它为什么应该给阿根廷额外的数十亿美元呢？

Advisers⁷ to Mr Fernandez say his campaign rhetoric⁸ should not be taken too seriously.

费尔南德斯的顾问表示，他的竞选言论不应被过于当真。

"Alberto is acting⁹ now as a candidate…appealing to the base; he will govern very differently," says one of his inner circle.

“阿尔贝托现在是候选人之一......很吸引选民；他将以非常不同的方式执政，”他的一个心腹说。

His chief economic adviser⁶, Guillermo Nielsen, has published a more moderate ten-point agenda that leaves some room for optimism.

他的首席经济顾问古雷默·尼尔森发表了一份更加温和的十点议程，为乐观情绪留有余地。

It recognises the need for a budget surplus. And it envisages¹⁰ a "social pact¹¹" between the unions

议程承认了预算盈余的必要性并设想在工会和商业之间

and business to tame inflation by moderating wage-claims and price increases.

达成一份“社会公约”，通过降低工资要求和物价上涨来抑制通货膨胀。

A Peronist government under Mr Fernandez may find it easier to bring the unions into line than today's government does.

费尔南德斯领导下的庇隆主义政府或许会发现，与今天的政府相比，统一工会要容易得多。

According to Federico Sturzenegger, the former governor of Argentina's central bank,

阿根廷央行前行长费德里科·施图尔辛格表示，

Mr Macri's administration has eschewed¹² that kind of dealmaking because it "did not want to sit the 'old-politics players' at the decision table".

马克里政府一直在回避这类交易，因为它“不想让‘老政客’坐在决策桌上”。

The next government may even consider much-needed reforms of labour laws and welfare entitlements,

下一届政府甚至可能考虑对劳动法和福利待遇进行急需的改革，

according to Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, another adviser who served under Nestor Kirchner, Ms Fernandez's late husband and predecessor¹³ as president.

另一名顾问Emmanuel Alvarez Agis说如是，他曾在费尔南德斯已故丈夫、前任总统内斯托尔·基什内尔手下任职。

"The future depends on building coalitions¹⁴, for change, not governing just from one side or the other," he has said.

他说道，“未来取决于为变革而建立联盟，而不仅仅是管理某一方面”。

Mr Nielsen says the next government will negotiate with the IMF, rather than walk away from it.

尼尔森表示下一届政府不会退出而是将和IMF进行谈判。

Having already borrowed almost 80% of the $57bn on offer, Argentina will need new loans from the fund to help it repay the old ones.

在570亿美元的贷款中，阿根廷已经借入了近80%，因此阿根廷将需要IMF提供新的贷款，以帮助其偿还旧贷款。

Mr Nielsen has also described China as a potential "financial life jacket".

尼尔森也将中国描述为潜在的“金融救生衣”

Ms Fernandez, who has remained remarkably¹⁵ quiet during the campaign, is known to covet¹⁶ Chinese investment,

众所周知， 在竞选期间一直保持着惊人沉默的费尔南德斯女士渴望中国的投资，

which might be attracted to Argentina's infrastructure¹⁷, 5G networks and renewable-energy projects.

中国投资者可能会被阿根廷的基础设施建设、5G网络以及可再生能源项目所吸引。

If that is the extent of Ms Fernandez's influence on the next government, foreign investors¹⁸ will be relieved. And so will some Argentines.

如果这就是费尔南德斯对下届政府的影响力，那么外国投资者将会松一口气。一些阿根廷人也能安心。

"Many of us could never vote for Cristina and Alberto Fernandez," says a retired¹⁹ woman,

“我们很多人永远不会投票给克里斯蒂娜和阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯”，

waiting at her bank this week to change pesos into dollars.

一名本周等在银行将比索兑换成美元的退休女士表示。

"But who can trust any of our politicians after all this?...I trust only my purse."

“但经历这一切后，我们的哪一位政治家是可以信任的呢？我只相信我的钱。”

1 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

2 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

4 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

5 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

6 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

7 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

8 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

9 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

10 envisages   

想像，设想( envisage的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The board envisages that there will be a high profit. 董事会预期将会获得高额利润。
• The paper reviews and envisages the development trend of carbon electrode. 本文对炭电极的发展方向做了回顾与展望。

11 pact   

n.合同，条约，公约，协定

参考例句：

• The two opposition parties made an electoral pact.那两个反对党订了一个有关选举的协定。
• The trade pact between those two countries came to an end.那两国的通商协定宣告结束。

12 eschewed   

v.（尤指为道德或实际理由而）习惯性避开，回避( eschew的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• I eschewed upbraiding, I curtailed remonstrance. 我避免责备，少作规劝。 来自辞典例句
• Moreover, she has a business plan, an accessory eschewed by cavalier counterparts. 此外，她还有商业计划，这是彬彬有礼的男设计师们回避的一点。 来自互联网

13 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

14 coalitions   

结合体，同盟( coalition的名词复数 )； （两党或多党）联合政府

参考例句：

• History testifies to the ineptitude of coalitions in waging war. 历史昭示我们，多数国家联合作战，其进行甚为困难。
• All the coalitions in history have disintegrated sooner or later. 历史上任何联盟迟早都垮台了。

15 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

16 covet   

vt.垂涎；贪图(尤指属于他人的东西)

参考例句：

• We do not covet anything from any nation.我们不觊觎任何国家的任何东西。
• Many large companies covet these low-cost acquisition of troubled small companies.许多大公司都觊觎低价收购这些陷入困境的小公司。

17 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

18 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

19 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。