2021年经济学人 易受美国金融动荡影响的新"脆弱四国"(1)

The fragile four

脆弱四国

Which emerging markets are most vulnerable to American financial tantrums?

哪些新兴市场最易受到美国金融动荡的影响？

There are few greater honours than becoming finance minister of your country. But there are better and worse days to start the job. Chatib Basri became finance minister of Indonesia, the fourth-most-populous country in the world, on May 21st 2013. That was only a day before the start of a financial sell-off known as the "taper¹ tantrum". Yields on American Treasuries² rose abruptly³ after Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, spoke⁴ about reducing (or tapering) the Fed's bond purchases. Higher American yields shattered the appeal of emerging markets, undermining their currencies, bonds and shares. "I had very little time to adjust," Mr Basri noted⁵ in 2016.

没有什么比成为贵国的财政部长更伟大的荣誉了。但是，这项工作的开始有好有坏。2013年5月21日，查提布·巴斯里成为世界第四人口大国印度尼西亚的财政部长。而就在一天前，金融抛售开始了，即所谓的“缩减恐慌”。在时任美联储主席本·伯南克谈到减少(或缩减)美联储的债券购买计划后，美国国债的收益率突然上升。更高的美国国债收益率粉碎了新兴市场的吸引力，削弱了它们的货币、债券和股票。“我几乎没有时间调整，”巴斯里在2016年指出。

Policymakers in emerging markets now fear a second such tantrum. As Treasury⁶ yields jumped at the end of last month, a broad index of emerging-market shares fell by over 7% in little more than a week. This is "shaping up to be a bruiser", wrote Robin⁷ Brooks⁸ of the Institute of International Finance, a bankers' group, on Twitter. Markets have calmed down in recent days. But if they again lose their composure, which emerging economies will be worst hit and why

现在，新兴市场的政策制定者担心再次出现这样的恐慌。随着上月底美国国债收益率的飙升，新兴市场股票指数在一周多一点的时间里下跌了7%以上。国际金融协会(一个银行家团体)的罗宾·布鲁克斯在推特上写道，这“正在成为一个彪形大汉”。最近几天市场已经平静下来。但如果它们再次失去冷静，哪些新兴经济体将受到最严重的打击，为什么？

One way to identify future casualties is to look at the characteristics of past victims. Back in 2013 Indonesia was one of an unfortunate group of emerging markets dubbed⁹ the "fragile five" by James Lord of Morgan Stanley, a bank. The group, which also included Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey, were all struggling with inflationary pressure, an overvalued exchange rate and a conspicuous¹⁰ current-account deficit¹¹ (which measures a country's trade deficit among other things). A few months into the tantrum Indonesia reported that its deficit had increased to 4.4% of GDP. The "market went into shock", Mr Basri recalls.

确定未来受害者的一种方法是观察以往受害者的特征。早在2013年，摩根史坦利银行的詹姆斯·劳德就将不幸的新兴经济体称为“脆弱五国”，而印尼就是其中之一。其它国家还包括巴西、印度、南非和土耳其，它们都在同通货膨胀压力、汇率高估和明显的经常账户赤字(用以衡量一个国家的贸易赤字)作斗争。在动荡的几个月后，印尼报告其赤字已经上升到GDP的4.4%。“市场陷入了震荡”，巴斯里回忆道。

Similar factors were combined into a "vulnerability index" by the Fed's own economists¹² in 2014. For the most part, the worse a country scored on the index, the more its currency fell in the taper tantrum. This kind of evidence has prompted Fed officials ever since to argue that the sensitivity of emerging markets to the Fed's words and deeds depends a lot on economic fundamentals in the emerging markets themselves.

美联储自己的经济学家在2014年将类似的因素组合成一个“脆弱性指数”。在大多数情况下，一个国家在该指数上的得分越低，其货币在“缩减恐慌”中下跌的就越多。这类证据促使美联储官员自那以后提出，新兴市场对美联储言行的敏感性在很大程度上取决于新兴市场自身的基本经济要素。

To the Fed's critics, that can sound like blaming the victim. But it is also a hopeful message. It implies that emerging markets have some control of their own fates. They are not "purely¹³ passive objects of the effects of Fed policy decisions", as Mr Bernanke put it in 2015. Mr Basri has recounted the numerous measures he and other policymakers introduced to make Indonesia less fragile. They narrowed the country's current-account deficit by raising interest rates, tightening¹⁴ credit regulations and cutting fuel subsidies¹⁵, despite the political damage that would ensue. Cabinet discussions were very "dynamic", Mr Basri writes.

对美联储的批评者来说，这听起来像是在指责受害者。但这也是一条充满希望的信息。这意味着新兴市场在一定程度上控制着自己的命运。它们并非像伯南克在2015年所说的那样，是“美联储政策决定影响的纯粹被动对象”。巴斯里详述了他和其他政策制定者为使印尼不那么脆弱而采取的众多措施。它们通过提高利率、收紧信贷管制和削减燃料补贴来缩小该国的经常账户赤字，尽管这将带来政治上的损害。巴斯里写道，内阁讨论非常“活跃”。

1 taper   

n.小蜡烛，尖细，渐弱；adj.尖细的；v.逐渐变小

参考例句：

• You'd better taper off the amount of time given to rest.你最好逐渐地减少休息时间。
• Pulmonary arteries taper towards periphery.肺动脉向周围逐渐变细。

2 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

3 abruptly   

adv.突然地，出其不意地

参考例句：

• He gestured abruptly for Virginia to get in the car.他粗鲁地示意弗吉尼亚上车。
• I was abruptly notified that a half-hour speech was expected of me.我突然被通知要讲半个小时的话。

4 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

5 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

6 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

7 robin   

n.知更鸟，红襟鸟

参考例句：

• The robin is the messenger of spring.知更鸟是报春的使者。
• We knew spring was coming as we had seen a robin.我们看见了一只知更鸟，知道春天要到了。

8 brooks   

n.小溪( brook的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Brooks gave the business when Haas caught him with his watch. 哈斯抓到偷他的手表的布鲁克斯时，狠狠地揍了他一顿。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Ade and Brooks exchanged blows yesterday and they were severely punished today. 艾德和布鲁克斯昨天打起来了，今天他们受到严厉的惩罚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 dubbed   

v.给…起绰号( dub的过去式和过去分词 )；把…称为；配音；复制

参考例句：

• Mathematics was once dubbed the handmaiden of the sciences. 数学曾一度被视为各门科学的基础。
• Is the movie dubbed or does it have subtitles? 这部电影是配音的还是打字幕的？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 conspicuous   

adj.明眼的，惹人注目的；炫耀的，摆阔气的

参考例句：

• It is conspicuous that smoking is harmful to health.很明显，抽烟对健康有害。
• Its colouring makes it highly conspicuous.它的色彩使它非常惹人注目。

11 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

12 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 purely   

adv.纯粹地，完全地

参考例句：

• I helped him purely and simply out of friendship.我帮他纯粹是出于友情。
• This disproves the theory that children are purely imitative.这证明认为儿童只会单纯地模仿的理论是站不住脚的。

14 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

15 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》