2021年经济学人 不确定的经济复苏--释放多重信号(2)

High-frequency data present a similarly muddled¹ picture.

高频数据也呈现出相似的混杂局面。

Global mobility² measures are still edging up, according to a recent report by JPMorgan Chase, a bank, suggesting continued growth in GDP.

根据摩根大通银行最近的一份报告，全球流动性指标仍在缓慢上升，这表明GDP仍在持续增长。

Yet Britain, the first big, rich country to be hit hard by the Delta³ variant⁴, is telling a different story.

然而，作为第一个遭受德尔塔变异毒株重创的富裕大国，英国的情况却截然不同。

Our “economic-activity index” for the country, using Google data on visits to workplaces, transit⁵ stations and sites of retail⁶ and recreation, has dropped by about 5% since peaking in June

根据谷歌关于前往工作场所、公交站点和零售及娱乐地点的数据，我们国家的“经济活动指数”自6月份见顶以来已经下降了约5%

(and there is little sign of greater mobility from July 19th onwards, when England lifted all domestic covid-19 restrictions).

（自7月19日英格兰解除地区内所有的新冠限制措施后，流动性几乎没有增加）。

The British story seems likely to set a trend to a degree.

在某种程度上，英国的经历似乎奠定了一种趋势。

In America surveys suggest that the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a pickup⁷ in people’s reported fear of the virus.

在美国，调查显示，随着与德尔塔变异毒株有关的冠状病毒感染的增加，人们对该病毒的恐惧也有所增加。

The hardest sort of data—releases from official statistical⁸ agencies—do not yet reflect the impact of rising covid-19 infections.

官方统计机构发布的最硬的数据还没有反映出新冠肺炎感染人数上升所产生的影响。

But they also give contradictory⁹ signals.

但它们也释放了相互矛盾的信号。

Measures of economic “surprise” in activity indicators¹⁰ (ie, a comparison of the published numbers with economists¹¹’ forecasts) still look fairly positive, especially in Europe.

经济活动指标中的“意外”指标（即公布的数据与经济学家的预测相比较）看起来仍然相当乐观，特别是在欧洲。

Housebuilding in America is proving more vigorous than almost anyone expected;

事实证明，美国的住房建设几乎比所有人预期的都要活跃；

Britain’s government is borrowing less than economic forecasters thought it would, a sign of a decent recovery in tax receipts.

英国政府的借款比经济预测者预期的要少，说明税收收入恢复得相当不错。

But there have also been disappointments.

但也有令人失望的地方。

In America, for instance, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined in July, against expectations of an increase.

例如，在美国，7月份，密歇根大学的消费者信心指数有所下降，与预期的上升恰恰相反。

Owing in part to the movements in activity indicators, economists’ revisions to their expectations of GDP growth—our fourth measure—also send mixed messages.

部分归因于经济活动指标的变动，经济学家们对GDP增长预期(我们的第四大指标)的修正也给出了复杂的信息。

Analysts¹² at JPMorgan reckon that American output will rise at an annual rate of 4.3% in July,

摩根大通的分析师认为，7月份美国的产出将以4.3%的年率增长，

which is lower than what they had forecast a week ago (yet represents an acceleration¹³ compared with the month of June).

这比他们一周前预测的数字要低（但与6月份相比，增长速度有所加快）。

Economists at Goldman Sachs, another bank, see downside risks to the global economy but still expect a robust¹⁴ recovery in 2021.

另一家银行高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家认为，全球经济存在下行风险，但仍预计2021年将出现强劲复苏。

Bring all this together and the picture is one of increasing uncertainty¹⁵ about whether or not the global economic recovery carries on at a rapid clip.

综上所述，全球经济能否快速复苏的不确定性越来越大。

In the rich world consumers are still sitting on piles of hoarded¹⁶ savings¹⁷, and workers are in high demand.

在发达国家，消费者仍然坐拥大量储蓄，对工人的需求也很高。

Yet the biggest rebound¹⁸ in activity, flattered by a favourable¹⁹ comparison with last year’s lockdown-induced depths and, in America, generous stimulus²⁰ cheques, has passed.

然而，与去年因封锁而导致的深度衰退和美国慷慨的经济刺激计划相比，我们所谓的经济活动的最大反弹已经成为过去。

In its place are niggling doubts about whether the recovery can be sustained.

取而代之的是对经济复苏能否持续的质疑。

Governments’ emergency stimulus programmes are coming to an end.

各国政府的紧急刺激计划已接近尾声。

There are growing fears that, as the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads, the resurgence²¹ in cases could impinge on economic growth, especially in places with large unvaccinated populations.

人们越来越担心，随着冠状病毒变异毒株德尔塔的传播，病例的反弹可能会影响经济增长，尤其是在有众多未接种疫苗人群的地区。

1 muddled   

adj.混乱的；糊涂的；头脑昏昏然的v.弄乱，弄糟( muddle的过去式)；使糊涂；对付，混日子

参考例句：

• He gets muddled when the teacher starts shouting. 老师一喊叫他就心烦意乱。
• I got muddled up and took the wrong turning. 我稀里糊涂地拐错了弯。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 mobility   

n.可动性，变动性，情感不定

参考例句：

• The difference in regional house prices acts as an obstacle to mobility of labour.不同地区房价的差异阻碍了劳动力的流动。
• Mobility is very important in guerrilla warfare.机动性在游击战中至关重要。

3 delta   

n.（流的）角洲

参考例句：

• He has been to the delta of the Nile.他曾去过尼罗河三角洲。
• The Nile divides at its mouth and forms a delta.尼罗河在河口分岔，形成了一个三角洲。

4 variant   

adj.不同的，变异的；n.变体，异体

参考例句：

• We give professional suggestions according to variant tanning stages for each customer.我们针对每位顾客不同的日晒阶段，提供强度适合的晒黑建议。
• In a variant of this approach,the tests are data- driven.这个方法的一个变种，是数据驱动的测试。

5 transit   

n.经过，运输；vt.穿越，旋转；vi.越过

参考例句：

• His luggage was lost in transit.他的行李在运送中丢失。
• The canal can transit a total of 50 ships daily.这条运河每天能通过50条船。

6 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

7 pickup   

n.拾起，获得

参考例句：

• I would love to trade this car for a pickup truck.我愿意用这辆汽车换一辆小型轻便卡车。||The luck guy is a choice pickup for the girls.那位幸运的男孩是女孩子们想勾搭上的人。

8 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

9 contradictory   

adj.反驳的，反对的，抗辩的；n.正反对，矛盾对立

参考例句：

• The argument is internally contradictory.论据本身自相矛盾。
• What he said was self-contradictory.他讲话前后不符。

10 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

11 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

13 acceleration   

n.加速，加速度

参考例句：

• All spacemen must be able to bear acceleration.所有太空人都应能承受加速度。
• He has also called for an acceleration of political reforms.他同时呼吁加快政治改革的步伐。

14 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

15 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

16 hoarded   

v.积蓄并储藏（某物）( hoard的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• It owned great properties and often hoarded huge treasures. 它拥有庞大的财产，同时往往窖藏巨额的财宝。 来自辞典例句
• Sylvia among them, good-naturedly applaud so much long-hoarded treasure of useless knowing. 西尔维亚也在他们中间，为那些长期珍藏的无用知识，友好地、起劲地鼓掌。 来自互联网

17 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

18 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

19 favourable   

adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的

参考例句：

• The company will lend you money on very favourable terms.这家公司将以非常优惠的条件借钱给你。
• We found that most people are favourable to the idea.我们发现大多数人同意这个意见。

20 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

21 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。