| 2005年NPR美国国家公共电台十二月-China's Economy Larger Than Thought |
| 文章来源： 文章作者： 发布时间：2007-07-18 字体： [大 | 中 | 小] |
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The business news starts with a great leap forward in Chinese accounting.
China's economy turns out to be bigger than anybody thought. By switching to a better counting, accounting method, the Chinese have discovered 300 billion missing dollars in their economy. And this morning's NPR's Adam Davidson tells us what that means.
Adam Davidson: It turns out it's not that hard to lose track of 300 billion dollars. At least not for China where about 9 hundred million people still live in farms and remote villages.
"Out of the city, out of the banking system, not necessarily using money or credit cards or checks for their transactions. It's not at all surprising that a big chunk of their activity might be missed by statistical sampling techniques."
Adam Davison: Carl Weinberg with High Frequency Economics, says China is still trying to modernize an accounting system first developed in the Soviet era. The new techniques revealed this week are a huge step forward in allowing bureaucrats to keep track of the ever-growing private sector. China will release the first revised economic data next week. Many expect China's economy will be about 20 percent larger than previously thought. Nick Lardy is a China specialist at the Institute for International Economics, he says that over the past decade, China's accounting practices have become much more sophisticated.
Nick Lardy: You know, on a scale of one to ten, if the US is ten, you know, China's probably a seven or eight. Technically, this is difficult, and it's a pretty massive effort when you're talking about one of the largest economies in the world.
Adam Davison: The old data showed that China's economy has been growing at nearly ten percent a year for the past decade, some have called this growth: the China miracle. The new data might confirm that number or reveal that China has been growing even faster than that, something that might alarm Americans who fear China's growing economic strength.
Adam Davison: On the other hand, the new data seems likely to show that Chinese consumers are spending more, this should be welcome news to US manufacturers hoping to sell products in China. Manufacturers need good news, especially now, the same week that the US trade deficit with China reached a record high.
Adam Davison: Adam Davison, NPR news.
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