经济学人271:日本消费税 税收稳定经济

　　Finance and economics
财经商业
Japan's consumption tax
日本消费税
Taxonomics
税收稳定经济
A crucial rise in a controversial levy¹ may be in doubt
争议税种，关键增税，何去何从，尚存疑问
THE Japanese are among the world's most reluctant taxpayers².
日本人是这个世界上最顽固的纳税人，
They reserve their deepest loathing³ for value-added tax.
他们对增值税怀有深深的怨念。
That may be because one of the inventors of VAT⁴, Carl Shoup, an American economist⁵, used them as guinea pigs for his new levy during the occupation after the second world war.
之所以如此是因为增值税的发明者，美国经济学家卡尔·苏泊在二战后美国占领日本期间拿日本做了这项新税法的试验品。
Japan soon scrapped⁶ VAT, reintroducing a consumption tax only in 1989.
日本人很快就废除了增值税，之后仅在1989年重新引入消费税。
This quickly became as hated as its foreign-imposed forerunner⁷.
而消费税也很快成为日本人痛恨的外国人强加的税种。
222222222_副本.jpgThe gaijin are watching again as Japan struggles to raise the consumption tax for only the second time since its introduction.
自引入消费税后，日本仅增加过两次，而这第二次增税就引来外国人的又一次关注。
The IMF, the OECD and local institutions all reckon a series of rises is the only way for Japan to control its gross public debt, approaching 250% of GDP.
国际货币基金组织、经济合作与发展组织以及日本国内机构都认为一系列的增税是日本控制国内债务的唯一方式了，日本国债已经达到GDP的250%。
The Democratic Party of Japan, which won legislative⁸ backing for the hike last year, argued that without it Japan could soon go the way of Greece.
去年赢得增税立法支持的日本民主党认为，消费税不提高，日本将很快陷入希腊那种境地。
Financial markets have counted on the tax rise going ahead despite a change of government since then.
自民主党增税立法之后，除了政府的一系列变革，整个日本金融市场都指着消费税上涨了。
This week the authorities surprised them by saying they would set up a panel to examine whether to proceed as planned.
不过本周令人惊讶的是，日本政府表示他们将设立小组来检查是否要按计划推进这一进程。
The plan is to lift the levy from 5% to 8% next April and to 10% in 2015.
按计划，到明年4月，消费税税率从目前的5%提高到8%；到2015年要达到10%。
That would bite just as Abenomics, a popular three-part plan to reflate the economy, designed by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, is taking off.
这样将势必产生震荡。类似的效果可能如安倍经济学。安倍经济学是由安倍晋三首相设计，内含三项方案，旨在振兴日本经济。
The first two stages, a radical⁹ monetary¹⁰ loosening by the Bank of Japan and a generous fiscal¹¹ stimulus¹², were aimed at jolting¹³ consumers out of their deflationary mindset and inspiring firms to invest.
安倍经济学前两项—由日本银行推行的激进的货币宽松政策和大手笔的财政刺激计划都旨在将消费者从通货紧缩中解脱出来并鼓励企业投资。
But so far it is mainly the urban wealthy and big firms that are benefiting.
但直到目前为止，主要还是城市富人阶层和大企业从中受益。
A consumption-tax increase, on the other hand, would immediately lighten all pockets.
另一方面，消费税的增长，则将立即清空民众的消费余力。
The fear is that a rise in revenues from the tax could be far outweighed¹⁴ by years of lost growth if consumers take fright.
有人担心，如果消费者因此恐慌的话，那么税收的增长带来的影响可能会比失去十年还要严重得多。
The only other consumption-tax rise, of 2% in 1997, was blamed for consigning¹⁵ Japan to a second lost decade, though this coincided with other events such as the Asian financial crisis.
日本另外一次上调消费税，即1997年上调到2%，虽然当时恰逢亚洲金融危机，但这还是被指责将日本带入第二个失去的十年之中。
Without counting broader knock-on effects, says Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley, the 3% rise scheduled for 2014 would reduce GDP by over 1%.
摩根斯坦利的罗伯特·费尔德曼表示，如果不算上广泛的连锁效应，那么原计划2014年GDP增长3%的目标就要缩水到1%以上。
An alternative could be to lift the tax more gradually.
另一个可选方案就是放缓增税的脚步。
Koichi Hamada, an economist at Yale University who helped to design Abenomics, has said that the levy could be raised in increments¹⁶ of 1% over five years.
耶鲁大学经济学家，同时也是安倍经济学的设计者之一滨田弘一表示可以在未来五年内，消费税率提高1%。
Mr Abe's panel will study this option, among others.
安倍可以考虑这个选项。
As long as the tax is raised significantly in some way, says Naka Matsuzawa at Nomura Securities, the bond market would probably stay calm.
野村证券的松泽中表示，只要长远角度讲消费税得以提升，那么债券市场就会稳定下来。
Ditching the tax increase entirely¹⁷ remains¹⁸ unthinkable.
但要实现彻底抛弃增税是不可想象的。
Recent economic indicators¹⁹, such as strong real annualised GDP growth of 4.1% in the first quarter, as well as a slightly improved jobs market, leave Mr Abe with little excuse but to go ahead.
最近的经济数据，比如第一季度GDP4.1%的强劲增幅以及就业市场的略微改善，都让安倍无法拿税收说事，但他又得将这一税改推行下去。
The BoJ this week added its voice to those pushing for a rise.
本周日本银行对增税呼声予以支持。
And taxpayers may be more accepting than the politicians think.
而纳税人或许也比政客们想象中更能接受增税。
An unscientific straw poll by The Economist found that seven out of ten shoppers in Ginza, a high-end shopping district, were ready for a tax increase, as narrowly preferable to a debt crisis.
本刊做了一项非科学民调，结果发现，在高档购物区东京银座有七成的购物者已经准备好迎接增税了，这一数据比起债务危机来说要稍高。
1.in doubt 存在疑问；大成问题
India's commitment to sezs is now in doubt.
印度政府对经济特区的承诺现在也值得怀疑。
The gravity of her crime is not in doubt.
她的罪行的严重性是毫无疑问的。
2.guinea pig 豚鼠，天竺鼠；试验品，实验对象
You want to be a guinea pig man?
你愿意做我们的实验品吗？
If your guinea pig isn't eating at all, then you should contact your vet²⁰ right away.
如果你的猪猪不进食，你就必须立即与兽医联系。
3.struggle to 斗争
I struggle to see what russia will gain.
我很难看出俄罗斯从中能得到什么。
Chinese steelmakers could struggle to pass on these rates.
中国钢铁生产商可能难以将这些涨幅转嫁出去。
4.on the other hand 在另一方面
Audio on the other hand, works just fine.
而另一方面，音乐播放就很好。
Ballet, on the other hand, is most often enjoyed live.
另一方面，芭蕾舞团，是最经常享受现场。

1 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。

2 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。

3 loathing   

n.厌恶，憎恨v.憎恨，厌恶( loathe的现在分词)；极不喜欢

参考例句：

• She looked at her attacker with fear and loathing . 她盯着襲擊她的歹徒，既害怕又憎恨。
• They looked upon the creature with a loathing undisguised. 他们流露出明显的厌恶看那动物。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

4 vat   

n.(=value added tax)增值税，大桶

参考例句：

• The office is asking for the vat papers.办事处要有关增值税的文件。
• His father emptied sacks of stale rye bread into the vat.他父亲把一袋袋发霉的黑面包倒进大桶里。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 scrapped   

废弃(scrap的过去式与过去分词)； 打架

参考例句：

• This machine is so old that it will soon have to be scrapped. 这架机器太旧，快报废了。
• It had been thought that passport controls would be scrapped. 人们曾认为会放开护照管制。

7 forerunner   

n.前身，先驱（者），预兆，祖先

参考例句：

• She is a forerunner of the modern women's movement.她是现代妇女运动的先驱。
• Penicillin was the forerunner of modern antibiotics.青霉素是现代抗生素的先导。

8 legislative   

n.立法机构，立法权；adj.立法的，有立法权的

参考例句：

• Congress is the legislative branch of the U.S. government.国会是美国政府的立法部门。
• Today's hearing was just the first step in the legislative process.今天的听证会只是展开立法程序的第一步。

9 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

10 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

11 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

12 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

13 jolting   

adj.令人震惊的

参考例句：

• 'she should be all right from the plane's jolting by now. “飞机震荡应该过了。
• This is perhaps the most jolting comment of all. 这恐怕是最令人震惊的评论。

14 outweighed   

v.在重量上超过( outweigh的过去式和过去分词 )；在重要性或价值方面超过

参考例句：

• This boxer outweighed by his opponent 20 pounds. 这个拳击选手体重比他的对手重20磅。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She outweighed me by ten pounds, and sometimes she knocked me down. 她的体重超过我十磅，有时竟把我撞倒。 来自百科语句

15 consigning   

v.把…置于（令人不快的境地）( consign的现在分词 )；把…托付给；把…托人代售；丟弃

参考例句：

• By consigning childhood illiteracy to history we will help make poverty history too. 而且，通过将儿童文盲归于历史，我们也将改变贫穷的历史。 来自互联网

16 increments   

n.增长( increment的名词复数 )；增量；增额；定期的加薪

参考例句：

• These increments were mixed and looked into the 5.56mm catridge case. 将各种药粒进行混和，装在5．56毫米的弹壳中。 来自辞典例句
• The Rankine scale has scale increments equal to the FahrenheIt'scale. 兰氏温标的温度间距与华氏温标的相同。 来自辞典例句

17 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

18 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

19 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

20 vet   

n.兽医，退役军人；vt.检查

参考例句：

• I took my dog to the vet.我把狗带到兽医诊所看病。
• Someone should vet this report before it goes out.这篇报道发表之前应该有人对它进行详查。