经济学人272:美国的货币政策 逐渐变弱的老虎

　　Finance and economics
财经商业
Monetary¹ policy in America
美国的货币政策
Taper² tiger
逐渐变弱的老虎
The Federal Reserve surprises everyone by changing nothing
美国联邦储备委员保持政策不变让人们感到惊奇
SHORTLY after the Federal Reserve hinted in May that it might start to ease its monetary stimulus³, rich-country bond yields shot up; emerging-market currencies and stockmarkets cratered⁴.
在美联储5月暗示可能会退出货币刺激政策后不久，富裕国家的债券收益率飙升，新兴市场货币和股市出现震荡。
Was it all for nothing?
难道这没有原因吗？
On September 18th, at the end of a closely watched meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting body, chose not to taper.
9月18日，在一个被密切关注的会议结束时，美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会没有选择退出。
Instead, it said it would keep buying 85 billion a month of Treasury⁵ and mortgage bonds with newly created money.
相反，表示将用新创造的货币继续每月购买85亿的国债和抵押债券。
Although the Fed had never actually promised to act in September, all the signals pointed⁶ in that direction.
虽然美联储从来没有承诺在9月份采取行动，但是所有的信号都指向这个方向。
2_副本.jpgQE would stop, it had said when the latest bout⁷ of bond-buying began last September,when the labour-market outlook had improved substantially.
去年9月开始的新一轮购买债券时表示，当劳动力市场的前景已经大幅改善时QE会停下来。
Since then, the unemployment rate has dropped to 7.3% from 8.1% and private employment has risen by 2.3m, or 2%.
从那时起，失业率从8.1％下降至7.3％，私营部门就业增加了2.3或2％。
In June Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, said the Fed would probably start to taper by year-end, and stop QE when unemployment hit 7%, which it expected by mid-2014.
在6月，美联储主席本?伯南克表示，美联储可能会开始在今年年底如果失业率达到7％就停止量化宽松政策，预计是在2014年中期。
So what has now held it back?
那么是什么原因导致倒退？
First, the pace of job growth has recently flagged; the drop in unemployment has been flattered by the number of people no longer looking for work.
首先，就业增长速度最近开始减弱，失业人数的下降是被不再找工作的人数粉饰过的。
The labour-market participation⁸ rate sank to 63.2% in August, a 35-year low.
劳动力市场参与率8月下跌至63.2％，是35年来的新低。
Second, fiscal⁹ policy continues to work at cross-purposes to monetary policy.
其次，财政政策将继续为多个货币政策目的起作用。
Higher taxes and spending cuts have subtracted at least a full percentage point from growth this year.
更高的税收和削减开支至少降低了今年经济增长整整一个百分点。
The prospect¹⁰ that spending caps may be lifted when the new fiscal year begins on October 1st has melted away.
在10月1日新的财政年度开始时可能会取消支出上限的预期已经没有了。
With Republicans in Congress and Barack Obama unable to agree on how to fund the government or raise the Treasury's statutory debt ceiling, the risk of a government shutdown loomed¹¹ large in the minds of Fed officials.
随着共和党在国会和奥巴马政府在如何资助或提高财政部的法定债务上限上谈不拢，在美联储的官员看来政府有很大的关闭风险。
But the third and most important restraint on the Fed was the unexpected effect on financial markets of a prospective¹² change in monetary stance.
但是，对美联储的第三个也是最重要的约束是变动的货币政策对金融市场的意想不到的影响。
The central bank had always emphasised that tapering¹³ did not mean tightening¹⁵.
央行此前一直强调退出并不意味着紧缩。
Provided asset purchases remained above zero, the Fed's balance-sheet would keep growing and monetary policy would still be loosening.
倘若资产购买仍高于零，美联储的资产负债表将保持增长和货币政策仍然会松动。
Separately, the Fed never wavered from its pledge to keep the federal-funds rate near zero at least until unemployment had fallen to 6.5%.
另外，美联储从来没有动摇其承诺保持联邦基金利率接近零直到到失业率下降至6.5％。
Nonetheless, investors¹⁶ radically¹⁷ repriced their expectations of Fed policy and fled positions predicated on a policy of QE ever after.
尽管如此，投资者从根本上重新定价他们对美联储政策的预期，并从量化宽松的政策以后改变了定位。
Bond yields have risen by slightly less than a percentage point since May, mortgage rates by slightly more.
从五月以来债券收益率上升了约一个百分点，住房抵押贷款利率上涨更高一些。
Mr Bernanke fretted¹⁸ that this rapid tightening of financial conditions in recent months could have the effect of slowing growth, a problem that would be exacerbated¹⁹ if conditions tighten¹⁴ further.
伯南克担忧最近几个月这种快速紧缩财政的情况会使经济增长放缓问题是继续紧缩会使情况更糟。
The euphoric market response to the FOMC's decision this week would seem to vindicate²⁰ that judgment²¹.
这周市场对联邦公开市场委员会决定的积极反应证明了这个判断。
But it leaves wide open the question of when the Fed will taper.
但它留下宽泛的问题，美联储什么时候开始紧缩。
The FOMC trimmed its projections²² for growth this year and next by about a quarter of a percentage point from its June forecast, to 2.2% in 2013 and 3% in 2014.
联邦公开市场委员会对今年和明年经济增长四分之一个百分点的6月份的预测进行了修改，2013年增长2.2％，2014年增长3％。
It also changed its unemployment projections, which it now expects to hit 7% early in 2014 and 6.5% later that same year.
它也改变了失业率的预测，它现在预计2014年上半年将达到7％，和下半年6.5％。
Mr Bernanke was at pains this week to stress that the 7% unemployment target for ending QE and 6.5% threshold for raising rates have never been automatic triggers.
伯南克本周煞费苦心的强调，达到7％的失业率时退出QE政策和6.5％时提高利率从来没有自动进行。
It all depends on what else is happening in the economy.
这一切都取决于经济体中发生的其他事情。
It is entirely²³ sensible for the Fed not to be slavishly bound by its guidance,
对于美联储不会盲目的遵从指导是完全合理的，
but that raises questions over how useful such guidance is.
但对这种指导有多大用处有人提出了疑问。
Most Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2015, for example,
大多数美联储官员预计2015年升息，例如，
but Mr Bernanke said rates are unlikely to rise if inflation is below its 2% target, which the Fed's new projections suggest could be the case until 2016.
但伯南克表示如果通胀率低于2％的目标利率不太可能上升，美联储新的预测显示直到2016年才会实行。
The start of tapering could conceivably come at the end of October if data reassure²⁴ the Fed that the economy has brushed off higher bond yields and if a fiscal train wreck²⁵ has been avoided.
如果经济降低债券收益率的数据和财政列车已避免脱轨能够使美联储相信，紧缩计划能够真的在10月底开始。
But there are no clear signposts, which will irk investors.
但目前还没有明确的标志，这将会使投资者感到恼怒。
Their frustration²⁶ pales next to that of the Fed itself, which has blown its balance-sheet up to 3.6 trillion and held rates at zero since 2008 but achieved underwhelming results in return.
美联储本身相形见绌，资产负债表为3.6万亿美元，并从2008年开始维持利率为零，但并没有取得让人满意的回报。
On September 17th the federal Census²⁷ Bureau reported that real household incomes in America, which had fallen by 8% between 2007 and 2011, did not fall further in 2012.
联邦人口普查局9月17日报道，在美国2007年和2011年之间家庭实际收入下降了8％，在2012年并没有进一步下跌。
That this counts as good news is telling.
这算作一个好消息。
Income inequality, meanwhile, is worsening on some measures.
同时收入不平等使一些措施恶化。
Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley, reckons the top 10% grabbed its largest share of total incomes since 1917 last year.
加州大学伯克利分校的埃马纽埃尔?赛斯估计自1917年以来，去年前10％的人在总的收入份额中占有最大的部分。
This is partly due to QE, which has been very good for the stockmarket and thus the wealthy.
部分原因是由于量化宽松政策，有利于股市，使某些人更富裕。
QE works in part by boosting household wealth and thus spending and jobs, but the effects have not yet filtered through strongly to the wider economy.
QE促进家庭财富增加，消费和就业，但效果尚未渗透到更广泛的经济领域。
The taps will be open a while longer yet.
水龙头在未来的一段时间继续打开。
1.start to 开始
When and why did things start to change?
那么这种情况是什么时候开始改变的？
It was the best start to august trading since 1934.
这是1934年以来8月份最好的股市开局。
2.at the end of 在…结尾，在…末端
Reparation normally comes at the end of a conflict.
赔偿通常是在一场冲突结束后开始的。
Participants kept their winnings at the end of the experiment.
参与者可以保留他们的奖金在实验结束后。
3.promise to 承诺
Last year he campaigned for governor with the promise to shake up state government.
去年他凭借要彻底改变州政府现状的承诺参选纽约州州长。
France has postponed²⁸ its promise to balance its budget, from 2010 to 2012.
法国承诺2010年平衡预算，但现在已经推迟到2012年。
4.drop to 下降到，跌到
The usda said that domestic stocks-to-demand would drop to the lowest point in nearly half a century.
美国农业部表示，美国大豆的储量需求比将跌至近半个世纪以来最低水平。
The corn harvest is expected to drop to the lowest level since 1995.
预计玉米收成会跌到1995年以来的最低水平。

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 taper   

n.小蜡烛，尖细，渐弱；adj.尖细的；v.逐渐变小

参考例句：

• You'd better taper off the amount of time given to rest.你最好逐渐地减少休息时间。
• Pulmonary arteries taper towards periphery.肺动脉向周围逐渐变细。

3 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

4 cratered   

adj.有坑洞的，多坑的v.火山口( crater的过去分词 )；弹坑等

参考例句：

• The surface cratered with the constant dropping of water. 表面因经常滴水而成坑。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Artillery cratered the roads. 炮击后大路布满了弹坑。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

5 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

6 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

7 bout   

n.侵袭，发作；一次(阵，回)；拳击等比赛

参考例句：

• I was suffering with a bout of nerves.我感到一阵紧张。
• That bout of pneumonia enfeebled her.那次肺炎的发作使她虚弱了。

8 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

9 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

10 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

11 loomed   

v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的过去式和过去分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• A dark shape loomed up ahead of us. 一个黑糊糊的影子隐隐出现在我们的前面。
• The prospect of war loomed large in everyone's mind. 战事将起的庞大阴影占据每个人的心。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。

13 tapering   

adj.尖端细的

参考例句：

• Interest in the scandal seems to be tapering off. 人们对那件丑闻的兴趣似乎越来越小了。
• Nonproductive expenditures keep tapering down. 非生产性开支一直在下降。

14 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

15 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

16 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

17 radically   

ad.根本地，本质地

参考例句：

• I think we may have to rethink our policies fairly radically. 我认为我们可能要对我们的政策进行根本的反思。
• The health service must be radically reformed. 公共医疗卫生服务必须进行彻底改革。

18 fretted   

焦躁的，附有弦马的，腐蚀的

参考例句：

• The wind whistled through the twigs and fretted the occasional, dirty-looking crocuses. 寒风穿过枯枝，有时把发脏的藏红花吹刮跑了。 来自英汉文学
• The lady's fame for hitting the mark fretted him. 这位太太看问题深刻的名声在折磨着他。

19 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 vindicate   

v.为…辩护或辩解，辩明；证明…正确

参考例句：

• He tried hard to vindicate his honor.他拼命维护自己的名誉。
• How can you vindicate your behavior to the teacher?你怎样才能向老师证明你的行为是对的呢？

21 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

22 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

23 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

24 reassure   

v.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• This seemed to reassure him and he continued more confidently.这似乎使他放心一点，于是他更有信心地继续说了下去。
• The airline tried to reassure the customers that the planes were safe.航空公司尽力让乘客相信飞机是安全的。

25 wreck   

n.失事，遇难；沉船；vt.(船等)失事，遇难

参考例句：

• Weather may have been a factor in the wreck.天气可能是造成这次失事的原因之一。
• No one can wreck the friendship between us.没有人能够破坏我们之间的友谊。

26 frustration   

n.挫折，失败，失效，落空

参考例句：

• He had to fight back tears of frustration.他不得不强忍住失意的泪水。
• He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration.他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。

27 census   

n.(官方的)人口调查，人口普查

参考例句：

• A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
• The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。

28 postponed   

vt.& vi.延期，缓办，（使）延迟vt.把…放在次要地位；[语]把…放在后面（或句尾）vi.（疟疾等）延缓发作（或复发）

参考例句：

• The trial was postponed indefinitely. 审讯无限期延迟。
• The game has already been postponed three times. 这场比赛已经三度延期了。