经济学人32:投资埃塞俄比亚

 　　Finance and Economics；Investing in Ethiopia; Frontier mentality¹;

　　财经；投资埃塞俄比亚; 前沿思维;

　　A new fund attests² to the country's allure—and to the value of connections;

　　新投资，国家吸引力与关系网价值的有力证明;

　　Long benighted³, Ethiopia is attracting attention for a better reason. It has become Africa's fastest-growing non-energy economy (see chart). Investors⁴ have noticed. South Africa's largest consumer-foods firm, Tiger Brands, expanded into Ethiopia last year with a big acquisition. Diageo and Heineken recently paid nearly $400m combined to acquire state breweries⁵ in the country.

　　埃塞俄比亚已经成为非洲经济增长最快的无能源国家（见图表）。这一点，投资者早就知道。西非最大的消费食品公司，Tiger Brands,在去年进行了一次大规模并购，进军到埃塞俄比亚。Diageo和Heineken最近联合花费4亿美金收购了该国一个国营啤酒厂。

　　The latest proof came on May 9th, when Schulze Global Investments, an American investment firm and family office, announced that it had launched a $100m Ethiopia fund, the first private-equity fund focused exclusively on the country. Anchored by at least $15m from Britain's CDC, a government-owned provider of development finance, and $10m of the family's own money, the fund will invest in sectors⁶ from agribusiness and cement to health care and natural resources.

　　最新事件发生在5月9日，美国一家投资投资与家族财务管理公司，Schulze全球投资公司，宣布在埃塞俄比亚投资1亿美金，这是第一笔专门针对埃塞俄比亚的私募基金。加上之前英国CDC公司，一家政府所有的发展财务公司的至少1500万美元投资，还有家族所有的1000万美元，这些资金将用于农业企业、水泥、卫生保健和自然资源。

　　Investing in Ethiopia is not for the faint-hearted, however. With a projected national income of $38.5 billion this year, its population of 85m still ranks among the world's poorest. The government's big spending carries risks, including high inflation (32.5% in March was near a nine-month low) and heavy state borrowing that has shrunk the credit available to private firms. Much more borrowing and spending is planned, and needed. The heart of the Ethiopian capital may be traversed by new concrete arteries⁷ and bridges, built by Italian and Chinese contractors⁸ with Chinese loans. But the rest of Addis Ababa is a patchwork⁹ of dirt paths lined by corrugated-tin dwellings¹⁰ that are the capital's shantytowns and slums.

　　然而，投资埃塞俄比亚可不是为了慈善。虽然埃塞俄比亚今年国民收入为385亿美元，但按该国8500万人口计算，它仍然位居世界最贫困国家之列。政府大幅消费带来了危机，包括高通胀（三月份的32.5%通胀率已是九个月以来的最低值）。巨额的国家借债已让国家信誉对私人企业缩水。更多的借债和花费都在必要的计划之中。从中国借钱、由意大利和中国建筑商建造的交通动脉和大桥，可能已经改变了首都的中心。除此之外，亚的斯亚贝巴城全是一片片由杂乱肮脏的小道连接的棚户贫民窟。

　　Poverty is pervasive¹¹, raising questions over how fast a consumer class will emerge. Agriculture is still a big source of national income, accounting¹² for more than 40% of GDP and more than 80% of employment. Almost all private businesses are small: family-owned vendors¹³ and repair shops, the kind whose customers cannot suffer inflation for long. Credit is hard to come by for the unconnected. Only licensed¹⁴ exporters consistently benefit from repeated devaluations of the currency. To invest in Ethiopia is to invest in the frontier.

　　贫穷无处不在，到底有消费者能力的阶层能多快增长，这是个问题。农业仍然是国家收入的一大来源，占据GDP的40%，并促进了80%的就业人口。几乎所有的私人企业都是小企业：家族小贩和维修店，这些人不可能在那么长的通胀经济中坚持住。而没有关系网的商家，也很难有信誉。只有拥有经营执照的出口商才能从不断贬值的货币中稳定获利。投资埃塞俄比亚如同在投资在前线阵地。

　　That suits Gabriel Schulze, who runs SGI (as the firm is known in Addis Ababa). He is the scion¹⁵ of an American frontier family. His great-great-grandfather, William Boyce Thompson, flirted¹⁶ with bankruptcy¹⁷ in the Old West and founded Newmont Mining, now a $23 billion company. Mr Schulze operates smoothly¹⁸ in Ethiopia because of connections built through his family (three of his younger siblings¹⁹ are adopted Ethiopians). In 2008 he established a permanent office in the capital, staffed by members of Ethiopia's class of returning exiles, including two daughters of former officials under the late emperor, Haile Selassie.

　　这种状况正像经营SGI（在亚的斯亚贝巴众所周知）的Gabriel Schulze。他是美国前线家族后裔。他的曾曾祖父，William Boyce Thompson，在老西部破产，后来成立了Newmont Mining，现在是一个资产230亿的公司。Schulze先生在埃塞俄比亚经营的很顺利，因为他的家族的关系网（他的三个年轻的同辈都是收养的埃塞俄比亚的孩子）。2008年，他在埃塞俄比亚首都成立了一个永久的办公室，员工都是逃亡归来的埃塞俄比亚人，包括末代皇帝Haile Selassie时期的前长官的女儿。

　　Connections are crucial. Ethiopia's doors are not all swung wide open to foreign investment, but rather opened selectively. The regime of Meles Zanawi, the prime minister, is ideological²⁰ and authoritarian²¹: the ruling party and its allies won 99.6% of seats in parliament in the 2010 elections. Its labyrinthine²² bureaucracy is the bane of the smallest of private businesses. Mr Meles is working from a neo-Chinese blueprint²³, long on public investment and state enterprise (banking, telecoms and retailing²⁴ are off-limits to foreign investors). Outsiders wanting to do business in Addis Ababa must forge good relations with Mr Meles and his ministers.

　　这种关系网至关重要。埃塞俄比亚的大门向外国投资商敞开，但也是有选择地敞开。总理 Meles Zanawi是个独裁主义者：统治党和其联盟党在2010年大选中赢得99.6%的席位。它复杂的官僚机构是小企业经济的致命毒药。Meles先生很长时间都在公共投资与国营公司工作，是新中国人的代表。外界想在亚的斯亚贝巴做生意的人就必须与Meles先生和他的内阁大臣们建立好关系。

　　Similarly, the larger, existing SGI investments in Ethiopia—in a coffee-export business, a cement plant and an oil firm—are investments in the elite²⁵ families who run them, with family and personal networks that extend back generations. The Bagersh brothers, owners of the coffee business in SGI's portfolio²⁶, represent a third generation of coffee exporters. Tewodros Ashenafi, the founder²⁷ of SouthWest Energy, an oil firm, is the great-grandson of a former minister of war. Shonaid Jemmett-Page, chief operating officer of CDC, says that this is the nature of investible companies in places like Addis Ababa. “One of the problems in most frontier markets is there's generally a pretty small entrepreneurial class,” she says.

　　同样，更大的SGI投资项目，包括咖啡出口、水泥厂和石油公司，都是精英家族在经营，拥有几代的家族及个人关系网。拥有SGI咖啡贸易Bagersh兄弟已是咖啡出口商的第三代接班人。西南能源石油公司创始人Tewodros Ashenafi是一位战时部长的曾孙。CDC首席运营官Shonaid Jemmett-Page说这是诸如亚的斯亚贝巴这样投资地的特色，他说：“大部分前沿市场都存在一个问题，就是一般创业阶层非常小。”

　　Some critics of Mr Meles nonetheless worry that he will give away the store to foreigners—including bits of the country itself, they grumble²⁸, in the form of land farmed for export, which has become a fast-growing business. At the Sheraton Addis (a luxury hotel owned by Mohammed al-Amoudi, a Saudi-Ethiopian sheikh), a returned exile who makes introductions and brokers²⁹ deals dismisses this notion with a story. A 19th-century emperor once saw off foreign visitors who had perhaps overstayed their welcome. The emperor was said to have ordered the bottoms of their shoes to be checked carefully on the way out. Not a crumb³⁰ of Ethiopia's soil was to go with them.

　　尽管如此，有些评论家也担心Meles会把生意都卖给外国人，包括这个国家本身，以土地收成形式的出口已成为一个快速增长的企业。而在Sheraton Addis（沙特-埃塞俄比亚酋长Mohammed al-Amoudi拥有的豪华酒店）的一个回国的逃亡者和经纪人讲了一个故事，否认了这样的看法。19世纪的国王在一次送别一队外国游客时，让他们仔细检查鞋底，不允许他们带走埃塞俄比亚一丁点的尘土。

1 mentality   

n.心理，思想，脑力

参考例句：

• He has many years'experience of the criminal mentality.他研究犯罪心理有多年经验。
• Running a business requires a very different mentality from being a salaried employee.经营企业所要求具备的心态和上班族的心态截然不同。

2 attests   

v.证明( attest的第三人称单数 )；证实；声称…属实；使宣誓

参考例句：

• The child's good health attests his mother's care. 这孩子健康的身体证实他母亲照料周到。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The boy's good health attests to his mother's care. 这个男孩的良好健康就是他母亲细心照顾的明证。 来自辞典例句

3 benighted   

adj.蒙昧的

参考例句：

• Listen to both sides and you will be enlightened,heed only one side and you will be benighted.兼听则明，偏信则暗。
• Famine hit that benighted country once more.饥荒再次席卷了那个蒙昧的国家。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 breweries   

酿造厂，啤酒厂( brewery的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• In some cases, this is desirable, but most breweries prefer lighter-type beers. 在一些情况下，这是很理想的，但是大多数啤酒厂更倾向于生产酒度较低的啤酒。
• Currently, there are 58 breweries producing Snow Beeracross the country. 目前，全国共有58个雪花啤酒厂。

6 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 arteries   

n.动脉( artery的名词复数 )；干线，要道

参考例句：

• Even grafting new blood vessels in place of the diseased coronary arteries has been tried. 甚至移植新血管代替不健康的冠状动脉的方法都已经试过。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• This is the place where the three main arteries of West London traffic met. 这就是伦敦西部三条主要交通干线的交汇处。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 contractors   

n.（建筑、监造中的）承包人( contractor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• We got estimates from three different contractors before accepting the lowest. 我们得到3个承包商的报价后，接受了最低的报价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Contractors winning construction jobs had to kick back 2 per cent of the contract price to the mafia. 赢得建筑工作的承包商得抽出合同价格的百分之二的回扣给黑手党。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 patchwork   

n.混杂物；拼缝物

参考例句：

• That proposal is nothing else other than a patchwork.那个建议只是一个大杂烩而已。
• She patched new cloth to the old coat,so It'seemed mere patchwork. 她把新布初到那件旧上衣上，所以那件衣服看上去就象拼凑起来的东西。

10 dwellings   

n.住处，处所( dwelling的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The development will consist of 66 dwellings and a number of offices. 新建楼区将由66栋住房和一些办公用房组成。
• The hovels which passed for dwellings are being pulled down. 过去用作住室的陋屋正在被拆除。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 pervasive   

adj.普遍的；遍布的，(到处)弥漫的；渗透性的

参考例句：

• It is the most pervasive compound on earth.它是地球上最普遍的化合物。
• The adverse health effects of car exhaust are pervasive and difficult to measure.汽车尾气对人类健康所构成的有害影响是普遍的，并且难以估算。

12 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

13 vendors   

n.摊贩( vendor的名词复数 )；小贩；（房屋等的）卖主；卖方

参考例句：

• The vendors were gazundered at the last minute. 卖主在最后一刻被要求降低房价。
• At the same time, interface standards also benefIt'software vendors. 同时，界面标准也有利于软件开发商。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

14 licensed   

adj.得到许可的v.许可，颁发执照(license的过去式和过去分词)

参考例句：

• The new drug has not yet been licensed in the US. 这种新药尚未在美国获得许可。
• Is that gun licensed? 那支枪有持枪执照吗？

15 scion   

n.嫩芽，子孙

参考例句：

• A place is cut in the root stock to accept the scion.砧木上切开一个小口,来接受接穗。
• Nabokov was the scion of an aristocratic family.纳博科夫是一个贵族家庭的阔少。

16 flirted   

v.调情，打情骂俏( flirt的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• She flirted her fan. 她急速挥动着扇子。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• During his four months in Egypt he flirted with religious emotions. 在埃及逗留的这四个月期间，他又玩弄起宗教情绪来了。 来自辞典例句

17 bankruptcy   

n.破产；无偿付能力

参考例句：

• You will have to pull in if you want to escape bankruptcy.如果你想避免破产，就必须节省开支。
• His firm is just on thin ice of bankruptcy.他的商号正面临破产的危险。

18 smoothly   

adv.平滑地，顺利地，流利地，流畅地

参考例句：

• The workmen are very cooperative,so the work goes on smoothly.工人们十分合作，所以工作进展顺利。
• Just change one or two words and the sentence will read smoothly.这句话只要动一两个字就顺了。

19 siblings   

n.兄弟，姐妹( sibling的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• A triplet sleeps amongst its two siblings. 一个三胞胎睡在其两个同胞之间。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She has no way of tracking the donor or her half-siblings down. 她没办法找到那个捐精者或她的兄弟姐妹。 来自时文部分

20 ideological   

a.意识形态的

参考例句：

• He always tries to link his study with his ideological problems. 他总是把学习和自己的思想问题联系起来。
• He helped me enormously with advice on how to do ideological work. 他告诉我怎样做思想工作，对我有很大帮助。

21 authoritarian   

n./adj.专制(的)，专制主义者，独裁主义者

参考例句：

• Foreign diplomats suspect him of authoritarian tendencies.各国外交官怀疑他有着独裁主义倾向。
• The authoritarian policy wasn't proved to be a success.独裁主义的政策证明并不成功。

22 labyrinthine   

adj.如迷宫的；复杂的

参考例句：

• His mind slid away into the labyrinthine world of doublethink.他的思绪，早滑进到双重思想迷宫般的世界里去。
• The streets of the Old City are narrow and labyrinthine.老城区的街道狭促曲折，好似迷宫一般。

23 blueprint   

n.蓝图，设计图，计划；vt.制成蓝图，计划

参考例句：

• All the machine parts on a blueprint must answer each other.设计图上所有的机器部件都应互相配合。
• The documents contain a blueprint for a nuclear device.文件内附有一张核装置的设计蓝图。

24 retailing   

n.零售业v.零售(retail的现在分词)

参考例句：

• career opportunities in retailing 零售业的职业机会
• He is fond of retailing the news. 他喜欢传播消息。 来自《简明英汉词典》

25 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

26 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

27 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

28 grumble   

vi.抱怨；咕哝；n.抱怨，牢骚；咕哝，隆隆声

参考例句：

• I don't want to hear another grumble from you.我不愿再听到你的抱怨。
• He could do nothing but grumble over the situation.他除了埋怨局势之外别无他法。

29 brokers   

n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• The firm in question was Alsbery & Co., whiskey brokers. 那家公司叫阿尔斯伯里公司，经销威士忌。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• From time to time a telephone would ring in the brokers' offices. 那两排经纪人房间里不时响着叮令的电话。 来自子夜部分

30 crumb   

n.饼屑，面包屑，小量

参考例句：

• It was the only crumb of comfort he could salvage from the ordeal.这是他从这场磨难里能找到的唯一的少许安慰。
• Ruth nearly choked on the last crumb of her pastry.鲁斯几乎被糕点的最后一块碎屑所噎住。