经济学人252:北极气候变化 仓惶撤退

 　　Science and technology

　　科技报道

　　Climate change in the Arctic

　　北极气候变化

　　Beating a retreat

　　仓惶撤退

　　Arctic sea ice is melting far faster than climate models predict. Why?

　　北极海冰正在以比气候模型所预测的快得多的速度融化，为什么？

　　ON SEPTEMBER 9th, at the height of its summertime shrinkage, ice covered 4.33m square km, or 1.67m square miles, of the Arctic Ocean, according to America's National Snow and Ice Data Centre.

　　据美国国家冰雪中心监测，今年的9月9日，处于夏季收缩极值的北极海冰仅仅覆盖了433万平方公里，或相当于167万平方英里的北冰洋洋面。

　　That is not a record low—not quite.

　　这虽未创下最低记录，但也已相去不远。

　　But the actual record, 4.17m square km in 2007, was the product of an unusual combination of sunny days, cloudless skies and warm currents flowing up from mid-latitudes.

　　2007年的417万平方公里的最低记录是受到当时艳阳高照，万里无云的天空以及从中纬度上来的暖流这种异常组合的影响的产物。

　　This year has seen no such opposite of a perfect storm, yet the summer sea-ice minimum is a mere¹ 4% bigger than that record.

　　而尽管并没有观测到如此不利的情况，今年海冰的极小值也仅仅比那年的记录大了4%。

　　Add in the fact that the thickness of the ice, which is much harder to measure, is estimated to have fallen by half since 1979, when satellite records began, and there is probably less ice floating on the Arctic Ocean now than at any time since a particularly warm period 8,000 years ago, soon after the last ice age.

　　除此以外，较难测量的冰面厚度预计比首次有卫星观测记录的1979年降低了一半。现在，漂浮在北冰洋上面的冰块很可能是8000千年前最后一个冰河期结束后的那个极暖期以来最少的。

　　That Arctic sea ice is disappearing has been known for decades.

　　数十年前，人们已经认识到北极海冰正在消亡一事。

　　The underlying² cause is believed by all but a handful of climatologists to be global warming brought about by greenhouse-gas emissions³.

　　除了少数人以外，几乎所有气候学家都将其归咎于温室气体排放所带来的全球变暖。

　　Yet the rate the ice is vanishing confounds these climatologists' models.

　　然而海冰消失的速率使这些气象学家建立的气候模型陷入混乱。

　　These predict that if the level of carbon dioxide, methane⁴ and so on in the atmosphere continues to rise, then the Arctic Ocean will be free of floating summer ice by the end of the century.

　　按照他们的预计，若大气中的二氧化碳、甲烷以及其他温室气体持续增加，到本世纪末夏季的北极海冰将完全消失。

　　At current rates of shrinkage, by contrast, this looks likely to happen some time between 2020 and 2050.

　　但是相较之下，依现在的消融速率，这一情况将可能在2020年到2050年之间发生。

　　The reason is that Arctic air is warming twice as fast as the atmosphere as a whole.

　　其原因是由于北极的空气正在以大气整体的两倍速度暖化。

　　Some of the causes of this are understood, but some are not.

　　其中部分根源已经被了解，但仍有一些未能解开。

　　The darkness of land and water compared with the reflectiveness of snow and ice means that when the latter melt to reveal the former, the area exposed absorbs more heat from the sun and reflects less of it back into space.

　　与强反射的冰雪表面相比，当其融化后露出下面深色的陆地或水体时，这部分区域将从太阳吸收到更多的热量而仅仅反射更少的部分到空中。

　　The result is a feedback loop that accelerates local warming. Such feedback, though, does not completely explain what is happening.

　　结果造成了一个局部暖化加速的恶性循环，尽管这种反馈机制未能完全解释当下正在发生的事情。

　　Hence the search for other things that might assist the ice's rapid disappearance⁵.

　　今后对其他事物的研究可能会对解释海冰的快速消失带来帮助。

　　Forcing the issue

　　解决问题

　　One is physical change in the ice itself.

　　另一个原因是海冰自身的物理结构发生了改变。

　　Formerly⁶ a solid mass that melted and refroze at its edges, it is now thinner, more fractured, and so more liable to melt.

　　以前融化和冻结仅发生在冰块的边缘，但是它现在变得更薄，更易破裂，并且更倾向融化。

　　But that is a marginal effect. Filling the gap between model and reality may need something besides this.

　　但这只是名副其实的边际效应。要弥合模型与现实的差距，还需要其他原因。

　　The latest candidates are short-term climate forcings.

　　最后一个候选者是所谓的短期气候强迫物质。

　　These are pollutants⁷, particularly ozone⁸ and soot⁹, that do not hang around in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide does, but have to be renewed continually if they are to have a lasting¹⁰ effect.

　　即是大气污染物，尤其是臭氧和煤烟。尽管它们不能像二氧化碳那样在大气中停留，以至于需要不断补充以持续发挥作用。

　　If they are so renewed, though, their impact may be as big as CO2's.

　　但是假如它们得到足够的补充，将对全球变暖带来不亚于二氧化碳的影响。

　　At the moment, most eyes are on soot.

　　当前，绝大多数眼球都注目于煤烟。

　　In the Arctic, soot is a double whammy.

　　煤烟给北极带来了双重打击。

　　First, when released into the air as a result of incomplete combustion¹¹, soot particles absorb sunlight, and so warm up the atmosphere. Then, when snow or rain wash them onto an ice floe¹², they darken its surface and thus cause it to melt faster.

　　首先，当作为非充分燃烧的产物被排放到空中后，煤烟颗粒吸收阳光，加热了大气。其次，当雨雪将煤烟带到冰面上后，使冰面颜色变深，并导致加速消融。

　　Reducing soot would not stop the summer sea ice disappearing, but it might delay the process by a decade or two.

　　尽管减少煤烟排放不能阻止夏季海冰的消失，但或许能减缓这一过程十到二十年。

　　According to a recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme,

　　联合国环境规划署的一份最新报告显示，

　　reducing black carbon and ozone in the lower part of the atmosphere, especially in the Arctic countries of America, Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, could cut warming in the Arctic by two-thirds over the next three decades.

　　减少低层大气中的黑炭以及臭氧，尤其是北极圈国家，如美国，加拿大，俄罗斯，斯堪的纳维亚诸国，能够在未来三十年里降低北极地区的暖化速度达三分之二。

　　Indeed, the report suggests, if such measures—preventing crop burning and forest fires, cleaning up diesel¹³ engines and wood stoves, and so on—were adopted everywhere they could halve¹⁴ the wider rate of warming by 2050.

　　事实上，如果能如此份报告所说，到处都采取诸如防止焚烧作物和森林火灾，清理柴油发动机以及火炉等措施，到2050年止能将当下较大的暖化速率减半。

　　Without corresponding measures to cut CO2 emissions, this would be but a temporary fix.

　　如果没有相应的削减二氧化碳排放的措施，这将只是一个临时性解决方法。

　　Nonetheless, it is an attractive idea because it would have other benefits and would not require the wholesale¹⁵ rejigging of energy production which reducing CO2 emissions implies.

　　尽管如此，这仍是一个有足够吸引力的主意，因为它还能带来其他利益，也不会像削减二氧化碳排放那样需要大规模调整能源产业。

　　Not everyone agrees it would work, though. Gunnar Myhre of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, for example, notes that the amount of black carbon in the Arctic is small and has been falling in recent decades. He does not believe it is the missing factor in the models.

　　然而，不是每个人都认为它将很有效。例如位于奥斯陆的国际气候与环境研究中心的冈纳·迈尔表示，他注意到北极的黑炭的量微乎其微，并且已经在最近的数十年里沉降下来。他不相信这会是模型中确实的影响因子。

　　Carbon dioxide, in his view, is the main culprit. Black carbon deposited on the Arctic snow and ice, he says, will have only a minimal¹⁶ effect on its reflectivity.

　　在他眼中，二氧化碳才是罪魁祸首。他说，落到北极冰雪上面的黑炭，只会对其反射率带来微小的影响。

　　The rapid melting of the Arctic sea ice, then, illuminates¹⁷ the difficulty of modelling the climate—but not in a way that brings much comfort to those who hope that fears about the future climate might prove exaggerated.

　　北极海冰的快速消融揭示了建立气候模型的困难，只不过，与那些认为对未来气候的恐惧可能被过分夸大的人的想法背道而驰。

　　When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should, a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response.

　　当事实上的变化快于纸面理论时，一定量的情绪不安是合理的反应。

　　It's an ill wind

　　一利百弊

　　The direct consequences of changes in the Arctic are mixed.

　　北极的变化将带来的各种后果。

　　They should not bring much rise in the sea level, since floating ice obeys Archimedes's principle and displaces its own mass of water.

　　它并不会使海平面上升许多，因为浮冰遵循阿基米德原理排开了相当于它自身的水。

　　A darker—and so more heat-absorbent—Arctic, though, will surely accelerate global warming and may thus encourage melting of the land-bound Greenland ice sheet.

　　然而一个相对深色的—也会吸收更多热量—北极，毫无疑问会加速全球变暖，并且可能促使连接在陆地上的格陵兰岛冰盖加快融化。

　　That certainly would raise sea levels.

　　而这将一定导致海平面上升。

　　Wildlife will also suffer.

　　野生动物也将深受其害。

　　Polar bears, which hunt for seals along the ice's edge, and walruses¹⁸, which fish there, will both be hard-hit.

　　沿着浮冰边缘狩猎海豹的北极熊，以及在此捕鱼的海象，都将受到沉重打击。

　　The effects on the wider climate are tricky¹⁹ to assess.

　　它给更广范围的气候所带来的影响难以评估。

　　Some meteorologists suspect unseasonal snow storms off the east coast of America in 2010 were partly caused by Arctic warming shifting wind patterns.

　　一些气象学家推测北极变暖造成的气流模式改变是造成2010年袭击美国东海岸的那场非季节性暴风雪的部分原因。

　　One feedback loop that does seems certain, though, is that the melting Arctic will enable the extraction of more fossil fuel, with all that that implies for greenhouse-gas emissions.

　　然而，有一个恶性循环似乎是真的—一个融化中的北极将会使得更多化石燃料被抽取，这与温室气体排放直接关联。

　　The Arctic is reckoned to hold around 15% of the world's undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of those of natural gas.

　　北极被估计保有全球石油储量的15%以及天然气储量的30%。

　　Hence a growing polar enthusiasm among energy companies—as witnessed last month in an Arctic tie-up between Exxon Mobil, of America, and Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil giant.

　　因此，在能源公司中掀起了一股极地热潮—上个月美国的埃克森美孚公司与俄罗斯国有石油巨头俄罗斯石油公司达成北极大陆架战略伙伴关系协议就是明证。

　　Recent plankton²⁰ blooms suggest a warmer Arctic will provide a boost to fisheries there, too.

　　而浮游生物的大量繁殖预示着一个较温暖的北极也将推动此处的渔业发展。

　　And the vanishing ice has begun to allow a trickle²¹ of shipping²² across the Arctic's generally frozen north-west and north-east passages, thus linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

　　消失的冰面也开始允许船只缓慢通过通常封冻的北极西北和东北通道，从而连接了大西洋和太平洋。

　　In August a Russian supertanker, the Vladimir Tokohonov, aided by two nuclear icebreakers, became the first such vessel²³ to cross the north-east route, hugging the Siberian coast.

　　在今年八月，一艘俄罗斯籍超级油轮，弗拉基米尔·蒂克霍诺夫号在两艘核能破冰船的帮助下成为了第一艘通过东北路径的同类船只。

　　So far, despite some posturing²⁴ by Canada and Russia, there are few territorial²⁵ disputes in the region and the Arctic Council, the club of Arctic nations, has functioned reasonably well.

　　迄今为止，除了加拿大和俄罗斯所摆出的一些姿势外，在该地区鲜少有领土争端问题。

　　Whether the interests of these countries coincide with those of the wider world, though, is moot²⁶.

　　北极理事会—北极圈国家的俱乐部，也运行良好。

　　A warming Arctic will bring local benefits to some.

　　尽管有待讨论，无论这些国家的利益是否与其他国家重合，一个正在变暖的北极只会给当地带来利益，

　　The rest of the world may pay the cost.

　　而世界上其他地方将不得不为之埋单。

　　1.according to 根据，按照；据…所说

　　Again this is according to recently declassified²⁷ information.

　　这也还是根据最近解密的信息得知的。

　　It did not go according to plan.

　　这个妥协方案并没有按计划执行。

　　2.flow up 流动起来

　　Enough kerosene²⁸ would be removed to lessen²⁹ the pressure in the bore hole so that when the lake was reached, lake water would flow up the bore hole, then freezing and forming an icy plug.

　　足够多的煤油会在最后被清理掉以减小钻洞内的压力，这样一来，当湖水上的冰层被钻透之后，湖水可以喷出钻洞，最后冻成一个冰柱。

　　We all know blood doesn't flow up.

　　我们都知道血不会朝上流。

　　3.soon after 不久之后，稍后

　　Mr rudd ratified³⁰ the kyoto protocol³¹ soon after his victory.

　　陆克文在选举胜利后不久就签署了京都议定书。

　　Roosevelt devalued the dollar soon after becoming president in 1933.

　　罗斯福在1933年成为总统后不久就让美元贬值了。

　　4.be free of 免于

　　I'm still in the probation³² period so I won't truly be free of the us for another four years.

　　现在仍然在观察期，完全自由出入还要等到四年后。

　　That we can never be free of yearnings and anxieties.

　　我们永远不能免费憧憬和焦虑。

1 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

2 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

3 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

4 methane   

n.甲烷，沼气

参考例句：

• The blast was caused by pockets of methane gas that ignited.爆炸是由数袋甲烷气体着火引起的。
• Methane may have extraterrestrial significance.甲烷具有星际意义。

5 disappearance   

n.消失，消散，失踪

参考例句：

• He was hard put to it to explain her disappearance.他难以说明她为什么不见了。
• Her disappearance gave rise to the wildest rumours.她失踪一事引起了各种流言蜚语。

6 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

7 pollutants   

污染物质（尤指工业废物）( pollutant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Pollutants are constantly being released into the atmosphere. 污染物质正在不断地被排放到大气中去。
• The 1987 Amendments limit 301(g) discharges to a few well-studied nonconventional pollutants. 1987年的修正案把第301条（g）的普通排放限制施加在一些认真研究过的几种非常规污染物上。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

8 ozone   

n.臭氧，新鲜空气

参考例句：

• The ozone layer is a protective layer around the planet Earth.臭氧层是地球的保护层。
• The capacity of ozone can adjust according of requirement.臭氧的产量可根据需要或调节。

9 soot   

n.煤烟，烟尘；vt.熏以煤烟

参考例句：

• Soot is the product of the imperfect combustion of fuel.煤烟是燃料不完全燃烧的产物。
• The chimney was choked with soot.烟囱被煤灰堵塞了。

10 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

11 combustion   

n.燃烧；氧化；骚动

参考例句：

• We might be tempted to think of combustion.我们也许会联想到氧化。
• The smoke formed by their combustion is negligible.由它燃烧所生成的烟是可忽略的。

12 floe   

n.大片浮冰

参考例句：

• Two penguins are standing on ice floe.两只企鹅站在一块浮冰上。
• Somehow the seal manages to reach a tiny ice floe.不知何故，海豹设法到达了一块小浮冰上。

13 diesel   

n.柴油发动机，内燃机

参考例句：

• We experimented with diesel engines to drive the pumps.我们试着用柴油机来带动水泵。
• My tractor operates on diesel oil.我的那台拖拉机用柴油开动。

14 halve   

vt.分成两半，平分；减少到一半

参考例句：

• Let's halve the project between our two teams.让我们两个队平均分担这项工程吧。
• I'll halve expenses with you.我要跟你平均分摊费用。

15 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

16 minimal   

adj.尽可能少的，最小的

参考例句：

• They referred to this kind of art as minimal art.他们把这种艺术叫微型艺术。
• I stayed with friends, so my expenses were minimal.我住在朋友家，所以我的花费很小。

17 illuminates   

v.使明亮( illuminate的第三人称单数 )；照亮；装饰；说明

参考例句：

• The light shines on from over there and illuminates the stage. 灯光从那边照进来，照亮了舞台。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The sun illuminates the sky. 太阳照亮了天空。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 walruses   

n.海象( walrus的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Walruses have enormous appetites and hunt for food almost constantly. 海象食欲极大，几乎一直在猎取食物。 来自互联网
• Two Atlantic walruses snuggle on an ice floe near Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada. 加拿大努勒维特伊格卢利克附近，两头大西洋海象在浮冰上相互偎依。 来自互联网

19 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

20 plankton   

n.浮游生物

参考例句：

• Plankton is at the bottom of the marine food chain.浮游生物处于海洋食物链的最底层。
• The plankton in the sea feeds many kinds of animals. 海的浮游生物成为很多种动物的食物。

21 trickle   

vi.淌，滴，流出，慢慢移动，逐渐消散

参考例句：

• The stream has thinned down to a mere trickle.这条小河变成细流了。
• The flood of cars has now slowed to a trickle.汹涌的车流现在已经变得稀稀拉拉。

22 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

23 vessel   

n.船舶；容器，器皿；管，导管，血管

参考例句：

• The vessel is fully loaded with cargo for Shanghai.这艘船满载货物驶往上海。
• You should put the water into a vessel.你应该把水装入容器中。

24 posturing   

做出某种姿势( posture的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• She was posturing a model. 她正在摆模特儿的姿势。
• She says the President may just be posturing. 她说总统也许只是在做样子而已。

25 territorial   

adj.领土的，领地的

参考例句：

• The country is fighting to preserve its territorial integrity.该国在为保持领土的完整而进行斗争。
• They were not allowed to fish in our territorial waters.不允许他们在我国领海捕鱼。

26 moot   

v.提出；adj.未决议的；n.大会；辩论会

参考例句：

• The question mooted in the board meeting is still a moot point.那个在董事会上提出讨论的问题仍未决的。
• The oil versus nuclear equation is largely moot.石油和核能之间的关系还很有争议。

27 declassified   

adj.解密的v.对（机密文件等）销密( declassify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Thousands of classified documents have now been declassified. 数以千计的保密文件现在被解密了。
• The software used for Siemens S7-300 encryption logic block declassified. 此软件用于对西门子S7-300加密逻辑块解密。

28 kerosene   

n.(kerosine)煤油，火油

参考例句：

• It is like putting out a fire with kerosene.这就像用煤油灭火。
• Instead of electricity,there were kerosene lanterns.没有电，有煤油灯。

29 lessen   

vt.减少，减轻；缩小

参考例句：

• Regular exercise can help to lessen the pain.经常运动有助于减轻痛感。
• They've made great effort to lessen the noise of planes.他们尽力减小飞机的噪音。

30 ratified   

v.批准，签认（合约等）( ratify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The treaty was declared invalid because it had not been ratified. 条约没有得到批准，因此被宣布无效。
• The treaty was ratified by all the member states. 这个条约得到了所有成员国的批准。

31 protocol   

n.议定书，草约，会谈记录，外交礼节

参考例句：

• We must observe the correct protocol.我们必须遵守应有的礼仪。
• The statesmen signed a protocol.那些政治家签了议定书。

32 probation   

n.缓刑(期)，(以观后效的)察看；试用(期)

参考例句：

• The judge did not jail the young man,but put him on probation for a year.法官没有把那个年轻人关进监狱，而且将他缓刑察看一年。
• His salary was raised by 800 yuan after his probation.试用期满以后，他的工资增加了800元。