经济学人259:直到死神将我们分开

 　　Science and technology

　　科学技术

　　HIV and AIDS

　　人体免疫缺陷病毒和获得性免疫缺陷综合征

　　Till death do us part

　　直到死神将我们分开

　　Putting numbers on infidelity

　　细数出轨之罪

　　ONE of the problems of dealing¹ with a sexually transmitted disease, such as AIDS, is that people routinely lie about their indulgence in the sorts of behaviours which pass it on.

　　谈到性病，比如艾滋病，难题之一便是人们通常会隐瞒自己的纵欲史，而这恰恰是导致染病的原因。

　　That makes knowing where to put your effort harder than it need be.

　　我们此刻恍然大悟，夫妻之间想要保证忠诚应该花更大力气。

　　And in no area do people lie more than on the question of infidelity.

　　而且，在对婚姻不忠这个问题上，人们撒的谎比其它地方撒的谎都多。

　　The naive² outsider might be forgiven for thinking that infidelity was likely to be an important way that HIV, the virus which causes AIDS, is spread. Until now, however, that was mere³ supposition.

　　如果围城之外的人们天真的认为艾滋病毒扩散的主要传播途径可能与婚外偷腥有关，那么我们可以原谅他们。当然，现在看来那也仅仅是猜测罢了。

　　Steven Bellan of the University of Texas at Austin has changed this, with a paper in the Lancet.

　　德州大学奥斯丁分校的史蒂夫·贝兰博士发表在《柳叶刀》上一篇论文，研究成果代替了猜测。

　　Using data likely to be more reliable than answers to the question:

　　数据示人可能会比结论对问题的方式更容易取信于人：

　　have you been cheating on your wife/husband?

　　你对自己的妻子或丈夫撒过谎吗？

　　he and his colleagues have worked out how much HIV infection is caused by adultery.

　　他与同事的研究成果显示了究竟多少例艾滋感染是由婚外偷腥造成的。

　　The answer, as might be expected, is a lot.

　　答案猜也能猜得到：非常多。

　　Dr Bellan and his colleagues reached this conclusion from a survey of 27,000 married or cohabiting couples in 18 African countries.

　　面对来自非洲18个国家2.7万接受调查的配偶，

　　The survey looked at who in these couples was infected, how long the couple had lived together, and the age at which each member of each couple first became sexually active.

　　或者是同居男女，贝兰博士和同事们将调查范围缩小在三个问题上：两个人中谁是感染者、同居或者已婚多久以及每一对之中首先成为性欲亢进的一方的年龄。

　　Most people do not routinely lie about these things, except for age of first sexual encounter.

　　如果不是第一次性行为，一般情况下大多数人不会对这三个问题有所隐瞒。

　　The researchers took account of that by showing that claims as much as a year at variance⁴ with the truth would make little difference to the outcome.

　　研究者们考虑到了这一点，指出对事实的陈述的差异如果在一年之内对结果无太大影响。

　　Dr Bellan plugged the results into a mathematical model that also takes account of HIV's prevalence in a country and how long people there live once they have been infected.

　　依据艾滋病在一个国家的传播程度和染病后人们的寿命时长，贝兰博士利用数学模型将其展现出来。

　　This let him estimate what proportion of HIV infections had come about by one or other member of a couple having been unfaithful, as opposed to having been infected before the couple got together, or having caught the virus from a partner so infected.

　　这样他就可以在相较于二人结婚之前一方染病或者结婚之后携带病毒的一方传染另一方的情况下，估算出由于无论是由于男方还是女方对婚姻不忠而导致感染艾滋病的比例。

　　The answer was between 27% and 61% for men and between 21% and 51% for women.

　　男性出轨染病几率为27%-61%，女性则相对较低21%-51%。

　　What can be done about that is a different question.

　　面对这样的结果，我们能做些什么？

　　Early in the AIDS epidemic⁵, the virus was spread by what might be termed long-distance infidelity.

　　这又是一个难题。艾滋病流行早期，病毒传播途径被称为长距离婚姻不忠行为：

　　Lorry drivers and migrant miners, lonely and far from home, were the vectors.

　　离乡寂寞的货车司机和矿井农民是携带病毒的主要人群。

　　Those groups, however, could be made the target of campaigns designed to ask them to think about what they were up to, and to be more careful about it.

　　针对这些人群，我们应当策划出一些活动项目来提醒他们：你们这样做意义何在？即使寂寞难忍，也要注意防护措施。

　　What Dr Bellan has uncovered looks more quotidian—and thus much harder to deal with.

　　贝兰博士研究没有涉及的地方更为人司空见惯，因此处理起来也就更加棘手。

　　1.such as 像， 例如；譬如

　　Such as, this is a wonderful film.

　　例如，这是一出美好的电影。

　　What about future steps such as euro bonds?

　　诸如欧元联盟之类的未来计划怎样？

　　2.likely to 可能

　　Other banks are likely to face similar pressure.

　　其他银行很可能面临着类似的压力。

　　He is likely to name a middle east peace envoy⁶ soon.

　　他有可能很快命令一名中东和平特使。

　　3.answer to 应答,适应,符合

　　The answer to the first is clear.

　　第一个问题的答案十分清楚。

　　There is a one-word answer to such questions: china.

　　用一个词就能回答这些问题：中国。

　　4.take account 考虑到

　　Russia's next president should take account of such shifts.

　　俄罗斯的下一任总统应当考虑到此类转变。

　　That wrong economic theory fails to take account of how the animal spirits affect economic behaviour.

　　这一错误的经济理论没有考虑到动物精神是如何影响经济行为的。

1 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

2 naive   

adj.幼稚的，轻信的；天真的

参考例句：

• It's naive of you to believe he'll do what he says.相信他会言行一致，你未免太单纯了。
• Don't be naive.The matter is not so simple.你别傻乎乎的。事情没有那么简单。

3 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

4 variance   

n.矛盾，不同

参考例句：

• The question of woman suffrage sets them at variance. 妇女参政的问题使他们发生争执。
• It is unnatural for brothers to be at variance. 兄弟之间不睦是不近人情的。

5 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

6 envoy   

n.使节，使者，代表，公使

参考例句：

• Their envoy showed no sign of responding to our proposals.他们的代表对我方的提议毫无回应的迹象。
• The government has not yet appointed an envoy to the area.政府尚未向这一地区派过外交官。