经济学人86:聪明不在 Not so smart now

 　　Books and Arts; Book Review;Human decision-making; Not so smart now;

　　文艺；书评；人类的决策；聪明不在；

　　Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman.

　　《思考，快与慢》丹尼尔·卡尼曼著。

　　Towards the end of “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, Daniel Kahneman laments¹ that he and his late collaborator², Amos Tversky, are often credited with showing that humans make “irrational” choices. That term is too strong, he says, to describe the variety of mental mishaps³ to which people systematically⁴ fall prey⁵. Readers of his book may disagree. Mr Kahneman, an Israeli-American psychologist and Nobel economics laureate, has delivered a full catalogue of the biases⁶, shortcuts⁷ and cognitive⁸ illusions to which our species regularly succumbs⁹. In doing so he makes it plain that Homo economicus—the rational model of human behaviour beloved of economists—is as fantastical as a unicorn¹⁰.

　　在《思考：快与慢》一书的结尾之处，丹尼尔卡内曼说对人们的一些赞誉感到悲痛，人们赞赏他和他已故的合作者阿莫斯特沃斯基发现了人类做“无理性决定”，他说，用这个说法来形容“人们可能受到的各种方的面精神问题的困扰太严重了”。这本书的读者也许不赞同这个说法。卡内曼拥有以色列和美国双重国籍，心理学家，诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，他将人类通常会有的偏见，心理捷径，和认知幻象进行了系统全面的分类并清晰的阐释了新鲜的“经济人”的概念（Homo economicus），这是经济学家所钟爱的人类行为的理性分类。

　　In one experiment described by Mr Kahneman, participants asked to imagine that they have been given 50 pound behave differently depending on whether they are then told they can “keep” 20 pound or must “lose” 30 pound—though the outcomes are identical. He also shows that it is more threatening to say that a disease kills “1,286 in every 10,000 people”, than to say it kills “24.14% of the population”, even though the second mention is twice as deadly. Vivid language often overrides¹¹ basic arithmetic.

　　卡内曼描述了一个实验：要求实验参与者想象他们每人得到50英镑，尽管结果一样—都被告知他们只能留下20镑，而必须要损失30镑，但他们每个人表现却大不相同。卡内曼还告诉我们，如果说一种疾病使每10000人中有1286人死亡，或者表述为它使占人口总数的24.14%的人死亡，尽管后者的死亡人数是前者的两倍，但前者更有震慑力。形象生动的语言比简单的数字更为感染力。

　　Some findings are downright peculiar¹². Experimental subjects who have been “primed” to think of money, perhaps by seeing a picture of dollar bills, will act more selfishly. So if someone nearby drops some pencils, these subjects will pick up fewer than their non-primed counterparts. Even obliquely¹³ suggesting the concept of old age will inspire people to walk more slowly—though feeling elderly never crossed their mind, they will later report.

　　有些实验结果十分奇怪。那些在看到美元的图像，更容易想到钱的人的实验参与者通常会表现得更为自私。如果坐在他们身旁的人有人掉了铅笔，相比较那些没那么容想到钱的人，他们肯弯腰捡起笔的几率要大大降低。这甚至间接地暗示：想到老年的意象会使人们走路速度放缓—尽管他们自己从没有老年的感觉，这些结论稍后将后发布。

　　After all this the human brain looks less like a model of rationality and more like a giddy teenager: flighty, easily distracted and lacking in self-awareness. Yet this book is not a counsel of despair. Its awkward title refers to Mr Kahneman's two-tier model of cognition: “System 1” is quick, intuitive and responsible for the quirks¹⁴ and mistakes described above (and many others). “System 2”, by contrast, is slow, deliberative and less prone¹⁵ to error. System 2 kicks in when we are faced with particularly complex problems, but much of the time it is all too happy to let the impulsive¹⁶ System 1 get its way. (Readers may be reminded of Freud's “id” and “superego”, though Mr Kahneman never mentions this particular intellectual ancestor.)

　　最后，作者得出结论，与其说人类的大脑是理性的集合，还不如说它更像一个轻浮的少年：反复无常，容易分神，缺少自觉意识。当然这本书不是人们悲观的忠告。书的标题有些拗口，但它表明了卡内曼'对认知的双层分类模型：“系统一，快速，受直觉引导，易犯上述的错误。相比之下，系统二则缓慢，慎重思考，不易犯错误。只有当我们面临着复杂的问题时，系统二才会启动，更多的时候，是让受直觉影响的系统一来替我们做决定。（读者可能会想到弗洛伊德的“本我”“超我”，但卡内曼在书中压根没有提这位贡献卓著的前人）

　　What, then, is System 1 good for? Rather a lot, it turns out. In a world that often demands swift judgment¹⁷ and rapid decision-making (fight or flight?), a creature who solely¹⁸ relied on deliberative thinking wouldn't last long. Moreover, System 1 generally works well. As Mr Kahneman says, “most of our judgments¹⁹ and actions are appropriate most of the time”. He urges readers to counteract²⁰ what he considers to be mistakes of System 1 thinking, such as the “loss aversion” that deters²¹ people from accepting favourable²² gambles (such as a 50-50 chance to win 200 dollar or lose 100 dollar). He also recommends checking the performance of an investment portfolio²³ no more than once a quarter, to limit needless anguish²⁴ over short-term fluctuations²⁵ and the “useless churning” of shares.

　　那么，系统一适合做什么呢？答案是：很多。在这个世界里，我们常常需要迅速做出判断，并快速做出决定（开战与否？）一个人不能只是依靠深思熟虑，这样是不行的。并且，系统一通常可以很好的运行。正如卡内曼所说：“我们大部分的判断和决策通常都很合理”他建议读者自觉避免系统一思考方式会犯的错误，例如“讨厌损失”会让人们不愿接受有利可图的打赌（比如，有一半对一半的机会来赢200美元或者损失100美元）他也强烈建议我们每次在观察证券投资的行情时考虑的时间不要超过15分钟，这样会减少我们对短期内股价的浮动和调整不必要的担心。

　　Mr Kahneman does not dwell on the possible evolutionary²⁶ origins of our cognitive biases, nor does he devote much time to considering why some people seem naturally better at avoiding error than others. Still this book, his first for a non-specialist audience, is a profound one. As Copernicus removed the Earth from the centre of the universe and Darwin knocked humans off their biological perch²⁷, Mr Kahneman has shown that we are not the paragons²⁸ of reason we assume ourselves to be. Often hailed as the father of behavioural economics (with Tversky as co-parent), his work has influenced a range of disciplines and has even inspired some policy.

　　卡内曼并没有详述我们认知偏见的进化源头，也没有花太多笔墨解释为什么有些人天生就比其他人善于规避错误。但他的这本书作为给大众的普及型读物是十分出色。正如哥白尼提出了地球是宇宙的中心，达尔文指出人类不是万物之灵，卡内曼也展示了我们人类并没有自己想象的那样充满理性的智慧。卡内曼被人们称为行为经济学之父（和特沃斯基并称），他的理论影响了许多学科，甚至给一些政策的制定提供了参考。

　　But the true consequences of his findings are only starting to emerge. When he presents the poor victims of his experiments with conclusive²⁹ proof of their errors, the typical reaction is not a chastened pledge to shape up, but confused silence, followed by business as usual. No one likes to be told he is wrong.

　　基于他的发现，其真正结论现在才开始显现出来。当他拿出确凿的证据给可怜的实验者们看，来证明他们的错误时，人们明显的反应不是发誓改正这些错误，而是非常困惑的保持了沉默，紧接着，一切又回归原样。没有人喜欢别人告诉自己做错了。

1 laments   

n.悲恸，哀歌，挽歌( lament的名词复数 )v.（为…）哀悼，痛哭，悲伤( lament的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• In the poem he laments the destruction of the countryside. 在那首诗里他对乡村遭到的破坏流露出悲哀。
• In this book he laments the slight interest shown in his writings. 在该书中他慨叹人们对他的著作兴趣微弱。 来自辞典例句

2 collaborator   

n.合作者，协作者

参考例句：

• I need a collaborator to help me. 我需要个人跟我合作，帮我的忙。
• His collaborator, Hooke, was of a different opinion. 他的合作者霍克持有不同的看法。

3 mishaps   

n.轻微的事故，小的意外( mishap的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a series of mishaps 一连串的倒霉事
• In spite of one or two minor mishaps everything was going swimmingly. 尽管遇到了一两件小小的不幸，一切都进行得很顺利。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

4 systematically   

adv.有系统地

参考例句：

• This government has systematically run down public services since it took office.这一屆政府自上台以来系统地削减了公共服务。
• The rainforest is being systematically destroyed.雨林正被系统地毀灭。

5 prey   

n.被掠食者，牺牲者，掠食；v.捕食，掠夺，折磨

参考例句：

• Stronger animals prey on weaker ones.弱肉强食。
• The lion was hunting for its prey.狮子在寻找猎物。

6 biases   

偏见( bias的名词复数 )； 偏爱； 特殊能力； 斜纹

参考例句：

• Stereotypes represent designer or researcher biases and assumptions, rather than factual data. 它代表设计师或者研究者的偏见和假设，而不是实际的数据。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• The net effect of biases on international comparisons is easily summarized. 偏差对国际比较的基本影响容易概括。

7 shortcuts   

n.捷径( shortcut的名词复数 )；近路；快捷办法；被切短的东西（尤指烟草）

参考例句：

• In other words, experts want shortcuts to everything. 换句话说，专家需要所有的快捷方式。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• Offer shortcuts from the Help menu. 在帮助菜单中提供快捷方式。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

8 cognitive   

adj.认知的，认识的，有感知的

参考例句：

• As children grow older,their cognitive processes become sharper.孩子们越长越大，他们的认知过程变得更为敏锐。
• The cognitive psychologist is like the tinker who wants to know how a clock works.认知心理学者倒很像一个需要通晓钟表如何运转的钟表修理匠。

9 succumbs   

不再抵抗（诱惑、疾病、攻击等）( succumb的第三人称单数 )； 屈从； 被压垮； 死

参考例句：

• Eventually the virus prevails and the infected person succumbs to the infection. 最终病毒体会战胜药物，而导致感染者死亡。
• A German lender succumbs to perverse incentives. Who's next? 一德国贷方受制屈服于非正当（投资）动机。谁将步其后尘？

10 unicorn   

n.(传说中的)独角兽

参考例句：

• The unicorn is an imaginary beast.独角兽是幻想出来的动物。
• I believe unicorn was once living in the world.我相信独角兽曾经生活在这个世界。

11 overrides   

越控( override的第三人称单数 )； （以权力）否决； 优先于； 比…更重要

参考例句：

• The new rule overrides all the previous ones. 新规则使以前的所有规则失效。
• The application configuration file setting overrides the machine configuration file setting. 应用程序配置文件设置重写计算机配置文件设置。

12 peculiar   

adj.古怪的，异常的；特殊的，特有的

参考例句：

• He walks in a peculiar fashion.他走路的样子很奇特。
• He looked at me with a very peculiar expression.他用一种很奇怪的表情看着我。

13 obliquely   

adv.斜； 倾斜； 间接； 不光明正大

参考例句：

• From the gateway two paths led obliquely across the court. 从门口那儿，有两条小路斜越过院子。 来自辞典例句
• He was receding obliquely with a curious hurrying gait. 他歪着身子，古怪而急促地迈着步子，往后退去。 来自辞典例句

14 quirks   

n.奇事，巧合( quirk的名词复数 )；怪癖

参考例句：

• One of his quirks is that he refuses to travel by train. 他的怪癖之一是不愿乘火车旅行。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• All men have their own quirks and twists. 人人都有他们自己的怪癖和奇想。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

15 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

16 impulsive   

adj.冲动的，刺激的；有推动力的

参考例句：

• She is impulsive in her actions.她的行为常出于冲动。
• He was neither an impulsive nor an emotional man,but a very honest and sincere one.他不是个一冲动就鲁莽行事的人，也不多愁善感.他为人十分正直、诚恳。

17 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

18 solely   

adv.仅仅，唯一地

参考例句：

• Success should not be measured solely by educational achievement.成功与否不应只用学业成绩来衡量。
• The town depends almost solely on the tourist trade.这座城市几乎完全靠旅游业维持。

19 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

20 counteract   

vt.对…起反作用，对抗，抵消

参考例句：

• The doctor gave him some medicine to counteract the effect of the poison.医生给他些药解毒。
• Our work calls for mutual support.We shouldn't counteract each other's efforts.工作要互相支持，不要互相拆台。

21 deters   

v.阻止，制止( deter的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The filth here deters all but the invited guest. 这里污秽不堪，除非有事，外人是裹足不前的。 来自辞典例句
• Many people believe that capital punishment deters crime. 很多人相信极刑能阻止犯罪。 来自互联网

22 favourable   

adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的

参考例句：

• The company will lend you money on very favourable terms.这家公司将以非常优惠的条件借钱给你。
• We found that most people are favourable to the idea.我们发现大多数人同意这个意见。

23 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

24 anguish   

n.(尤指心灵上的)极度痛苦，烦恼

参考例句：

• She cried out for anguish at parting.分手时，她由于痛苦而失声大哭。
• The unspeakable anguish wrung his heart.难言的痛苦折磨着他的心。

25 fluctuations   

波动，涨落，起伏( fluctuation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table. 他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• There were so many unpredictable fluctuations on the Stock Exchange. 股票市场瞬息万变。

26 evolutionary   

adj.进化的；演化的，演变的；[生]进化论的

参考例句：

• Life has its own evolutionary process.生命有其自身的进化过程。
• These are fascinating questions to be resolved by the evolutionary studies of plants.这些十分吸引人的问题将在研究植物进化过程中得以解决。

27 perch   

n.栖木，高位，杆；v.栖息，就位，位于

参考例句：

• The bird took its perch.鸟停歇在栖木上。
• Little birds perch themselves on the branches.小鸟儿栖歇在树枝上。

28 paragons   

n.模范( paragon的名词复数 )；典型；十全十美的人；完美无缺的人

参考例句：

• We don't expect candidates to be paragons of virtue. 我们不指望候选人在道德上尽善尽美。 来自辞典例句
• All cruel people describe them as paragons of frankness. 所有的残忍的人都把自己形容为坦率的象征。 来自互联网

29 conclusive   

adj.最后的，结论的；确凿的，消除怀疑的

参考例句：

• They produced some fairly conclusive evidence.他们提供了一些相当确凿的证据。
• Franklin did not believe that the French tests were conclusive.富兰克林不相信这个法国人的实验是结论性的。