经济学人186:古巴及外围世界 旧友重拾

 　　Cuba and the outside world

　　古巴及外围世界

　　Rekindling¹ old friendships

　　旧友重拾

　　Cuba is once again resorting to geopolitics to support a failing economy

　　古巴再次诉诸地缘政治，以支撑其低迷经济

　　CARLITO, a wiry man with greying hair, sits under a palm tree in Mariel, a town on a bay 40km west of Havana, sipping² rum and watching a container ship edge out towards the Caribean. He recalls seeing a flotilla of smaller boats leaving from this same spot in 1980, carrying thousands of opponents of the Castro regime to Florida in the “Mariel boatlift”.

　　Carito满脸疲倦，头发花白，静坐在马里埃尔镇的一棵棕榈树下，这一海湾小镇距离哈瓦那40千米，他抿一口朗姆酒，目送着一只载着集装箱的货船起锚驶向加勒比海，1980年的回忆袭上心头，当时一组略小的船只同样从这里起航，满载着成百上千的卡斯特罗政权的反对者，偷偷从马里埃尔驶向弗罗里达，

　　古巴.jpg

　　Those were politically charged times. Government trucks would come to his school to deliver eggs for him and his friends to throw at the people fleeing. About a decade and a half later, after the collapse³ of the Soviet⁴ Union in 1989 plunged⁵ Cuba's economy into crisis, sources of protein were so scarce that Carlito recalled those wasted eggs with bitter regret. Some “Marielitos”, as those who fled are known, returned recently and Carlito was stunned⁶ at how prosperous they had become. “We used to call them traidores (traitors),” he chuckles⁷. “Now we call them traedolares (bring dollars).”

　　当时政治斗争风生水起，政府的卡车会装载着鸡蛋来到他的学校，供他和他的朋友扔向那些逃亡的人群，但15年后，苏联解体，将古巴的经济一举推向危机的深渊，连蛋白质也成了珍稀产品，一想到当年浪费的那些鸡蛋，Carlito无不扼腕叹息。近来，一些当年逃走的所谓Marielitos的人重回古巴，他们的富有让Carlito大跌眼镜，他打趣儿的说，当年我们损他们为卖国贼，现在则称他们是生财佬。

　　Across the bay from where Carlito sits is a 900m container port, which was built with Brazilian money and inaugurated in January. There are plans to develop a special economic zone alongside it, modelled on the thriving export hubs, such as Shenzhen, that China developed from 1980 onwards. The port is part of a vision for Cuba that relies less on Cuban-American gusanos (worms) sending remittances⁸ to prop⁹ up the local economy, and more on an inflow of foreign investors¹⁰.

　　穿过Carlito静坐的海湾，一个造价9亿美元的集装箱港跃入眼帘，该港口以巴西货币为经费，1月投入使用，计划是在其周边建设特别经济区，以一些蒸蒸日上的出口中心如深圳——1980年后中国腾飞的城市为模板，这一港口是古巴减轻对古巴裔美国人依赖计划的一部分，不完全指望他们为当地经济发展投入经费着力引进更多的外来投资。

　　But Carlito is keeping his excitement in check. Construction workers building the container terminal were paid a mere¹¹ 250 pesos a month, he says, so the ramshackle town has yet to benefit from the development. None of the 23 firms who have sought licences to operate in the special economic zone has yet been granted one. Even Joaquín Infante, the 88-year-old vice-president of the slow-moving National Association of Cuban Economists¹³ and Accountants, urges speedier authorisation of investment. “We need to be more flexible and take more risks,” he says.

　　但Carlito并未喜出望外而是坐而观望，他说，建造集装箱港口的工人的月薪仅为250比索，这相对于扶持起一个摇摇欲坠的城镇来说无异于杯水车薪，尽管已经有23所公司申请了特别经济区的经营执照，但无一成功。即使是在步履蹒跚的古巴经济学家和会计师协会，88岁的副会长也要求对投资尽快审批，他说“我们应更加灵活机动，不畏风险。”

　　Despite reforms that have brought some big changes to Cuba in the form of private restaurants, bed-and-breakfasts and new co-operatives, the economy has virtually ground to a halt. In the first half of the year GDP grew by just 0.6%, leading the government to reduce its estimate for full-year growth to 1.4%. That is lower than the 2.7% annual average figure since Raúl Castro (pictured on the right, with Vladimir Putin) became president in 2008.

　　虽然改革带来了很大的机遇，古巴迎来了一些私人餐馆，住宿早餐包揽的旅馆和新的企业，但其经济发展停滞不前，今年上半年古巴的GDP增长仅为0.6%，这促使政府将全年增长预期调低至1.4%，这比卡斯特罗自2008年上任以来的年均数据2.7%还要低。

　　Investment is the root of the problem. In a report in July, two Cuban economists, Omar Everleny and Ricardo Torres, estimated that the growth in Cuba's capital stock, such as machinery¹⁴ and buildings, fell to 7.8% of GDP last year, close to its level of 5.4% in 1993 when the economy was in serious trouble. From the 20th floor of the Habana Libre, a run-down hotel, not one crane can be seen on the skyline. “The economy is screwed,” says a Havana-based diplomat¹⁵.

　　问题的根源在于投资，在7月的一则报告中，两名古巴经济学家奥马尔和里卡多预测诸如在机械和建筑领域的股本下跌至占GDP的7.8%，与1993年该国经济正处泥潭中的水平基本持平，从哈瓦那棚户区的一家旅馆的20层楼上观望，目光所及的天际之下，无一架起重机，哈瓦那的一名外交人员说，放眼国家经济，只让人眉头紧锁

　　Supporters of the regime argue that the reforms simply need more time. A profit-oriented reorganisation of state-owned behemoths, such as the sugar monopoly, could be promising¹⁶; it is just that the bureaucrats¹⁷ who run them are slow to change. Critics, however, see a fundamental flaw in the reform model. Although it has sought to give some people more freedom in what they make and sell, the state keeps a stranglehold on the inputs¹⁸ they need for those businesses, such as seeds for growing crops, or sauces and spices for restaurants, or spare parts for taxis. It has cracked down on “mules” bringing in such goods on passenger planes from abroad.

　　政权的支持者说，改革不过是需要更多的时间，以盈利为导向重组例如制糖垄断的国企大亨前景甚好，只是运营的官僚机构老牛破车，然而，批评人士认为，改革方略中存在根本性漏洞，虽说国家给予了人们制作和销售的更多的自由，但却严格限制做生意所需原料的进口，如粮食种子，餐馆的调味汁和香料或出租车的备件，他也严厉打击用客机从国外偷运这些商品的人。

　　Diplomats¹⁹ say such counter-measures will make it harder for Cuba to attract the 2.5 billion in annual foreign investment that the regime aims for. Some also reckon the financial squeeze on the island has tightened²⁰ this year in the wake of the case against BNP Paribas, a French bank, for evading²¹ American sanctions on doing business with Cuba, among other places.

　　外交人员称在这些打击措施下，古巴更难实现年外资吸收达25亿美元的目标，一些人估计，对抗法国银行BNP Paribas事件使得今年的财政困难雪上加霜，该事件是为了躲避美国对其他地区实施的与古巴通商的制裁。

　　That is why Cuba-watchers have paid close attention to the visits of Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, and China's leader, Xi Jinping, in recent weeks. Though both men offered few concrete investments in Cuba, they provide an opportunity for the Castro regime to start reducing its dependence²² on its closest ally, Venezuela, whose pro-Cuba government has been rocked by instability this year. Says Mr Infante: “We have to diversify²³ and not depend on just one partner.” He hopes that means more Chinese and Russian investment in Mariel.

　　因此，持观望态度的投资者对近几周俄罗斯总统普京和中国国家主席习近平的来访甚为关注，虽说两人提供的实际投资不过寥寥，但这至少给卡斯特罗政权提供机会，减少对他亲密战友委内瑞拉的依赖程度，但该国支持古巴的政权今年也在动荡中下台，infante说，我们应建立多元伙伴关系而不是依靠单独一个，他希望马里埃尔港能迎来更多来自中国和俄罗斯的投资。

　　One envoy²⁴ says the regime also prefers such investments to Western capital because it sees neither China nor Russia as a “Trojan horse” working towards regime change. A Cuban economist¹² sees uncanny parallels with the special terms offered to the Soviet Union in the cold war. “The mentality²⁵ of the decision-makers is to talk to Russia, talk to China, and make them offers based on politics,” he says. “But this is the same mentality we had in the past…and it didn't do much for productivity.”

　　一位使者称该政权也希望能给西部首都带来同样的投资，因为他认为俄罗斯和中国的投资都不是“特洛伊木马”，企图推动政权更替，一位古巴的经济学家称在冷战期间针对苏联的措辞与此如出一辙，不可思议，他说；“决策者希望与俄罗斯和中国实现交流，使他们基于政治因素作出投资，但这不过是老调重弹，鲜有成效。”

　　Cuba's courtship of Russia is particularly striking: a day after Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was shot down, Fidel Castro publicly blamed Ukraine's government. Such an overtly²⁶ pro-Russian stance on Ukraine may hinder political negotiations²⁷ that started this year between Cuba and the EU, diplomats say. It also makes it harder for Barack Obama to improve America's relations with Cuba, let alone consider an end to the counter-productive 54-year-old embargo²⁸. Back in Mariel, Carlito wants good relations with everyone, especially America. “Luckily we Cubans have a lot of patience and patience is good,” he says. “Without it there's just frustration²⁹.”

　　古巴对俄罗斯的巴结尤其让人嗔目结舌，马航飞机MH17击落一天后，卡斯特罗便公开谴责乌克兰政府，外交人员说，它在乌克兰问题上公开支持俄罗斯的立场可能会影响今年他与欧盟的政治对话，此外，奥巴马会更不情愿改善两国关系，更别提结束长达54年的禁运，虽说其效果是适得其反。卡斯特罗希望马里埃尔能与所有国家建立友好关系，尤其是美国，他说，幸运的是我们古巴人民锲而不舍，否则便只有槁木死灰。

1 rekindling   

v.使再燃( rekindle的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• There might be a rekindling of the kind of nationalistic fervour of yesteryear. 过去的国家主义狂热可能再次被点燃。 来自互联网
• Bryant and O'Neal on the floor at the same time, rekindling memories both good and bad. 科比和奥尼尔在地板上在同一时间，死灰复燃的回忆有好有坏。 来自互联网

2 sipping   

v.小口喝，呷，抿( sip的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• She sat in the sun, idly sipping a cool drink. 她坐在阳光下懒洋洋地抿着冷饮。
• She sat there, sipping at her tea. 她坐在那儿抿着茶。

3 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

4 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

5 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

6 stunned   

adj. 震惊的，惊讶的 动词stun的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The fall stunned me for a moment. 那一下摔得我昏迷了片刻。
• The leaders of the Kopper Company were then stunned speechless. 科伯公司的领导们当时被惊得目瞪口呆。

7 chuckles   

轻声地笑( chuckle的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Father always chuckles when he reads the funny papers. 父亲在读幽默报纸时总是低声发笑。
• [Chuckles] You thought he was being poisoned by hemlock? 你觉得他中的会是芹叶钩吻毒吗？

8 remittances   

n.汇寄( remittance的名词复数 )；汇款，汇款额

参考例句：

• He sends regular remittances to his parents. 他定期汇款给他父母。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Remittances sometimes account for as much as 20% of GDP. 在这些国家中，此类汇款有时会占到GDP的20%之多。 来自互联网

9 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

12 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

13 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 machinery   

n.(总称)机械，机器；机构

参考例句：

• Has the machinery been put up ready for the broadcast?广播器材安装完毕了吗？
• Machinery ought to be well maintained all the time.机器应该随时注意维护。

15 diplomat   

n.外交官，外交家；能交际的人，圆滑的人

参考例句：

• The diplomat threw in a joke, and the tension was instantly relieved.那位外交官插进一个笑话，紧张的气氛顿时缓和下来。
• He served as a diplomat in Russia before the war.战前他在俄罗斯当外交官。

16 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

17 bureaucrats   

n.官僚( bureaucrat的名词复数 )；官僚主义；官僚主义者；官僚语言

参考例句：

• That is the fate of the bureaucrats, not the inspiration of statesmen. 那是官僚主义者的命运，而不是政治家的灵感。 来自辞典例句
• Big business and dozens of anonymous bureaucrats have as much power as Japan's top elected leaders. 大企业和许多不知名的官僚同日本选举出来的最高层领导者们的权力一样大。 来自辞典例句

18 inputs   

n.输入( input的名词复数 )；投入；输入端；输入的数据v.把…输入电脑( input的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Uncheck the inputs checked for optimization in the previous stage. 不测试那些已经测试过的优化了的以前步骤的inputs.（变量参数）。 来自互联网
• Just in case, save in a file the inputs obtained at the previous stage. 以防万一，保存以前步骤获得的inputs（变量参数值）到一个文件中去。 来自互联网

19 diplomats   

n.外交官( diplomat的名词复数 )；有手腕的人，善于交际的人

参考例句：

• These events led to the expulsion of senior diplomats from the country. 这些事件导致一些高级外交官被驱逐出境。
• The court has no jurisdiction over foreign diplomats living in this country. 法院对驻本国的外交官无裁判权。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

21 evading   

逃避( evade的现在分词 )； 避开； 回避； 想不出

参考例句：

• Segmentation of a project is one means of evading NEPA. 把某一工程进行分割，是回避《国家环境政策法》的一种手段。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Too many companies, she says, are evading the issue. 她说太多公司都在回避这个问题。

22 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

23 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

24 envoy   

n.使节，使者，代表，公使

参考例句：

• Their envoy showed no sign of responding to our proposals.他们的代表对我方的提议毫无回应的迹象。
• The government has not yet appointed an envoy to the area.政府尚未向这一地区派过外交官。

25 mentality   

n.心理，思想，脑力

参考例句：

• He has many years'experience of the criminal mentality.他研究犯罪心理有多年经验。
• Running a business requires a very different mentality from being a salaried employee.经营企业所要求具备的心态和上班族的心态截然不同。

26 overtly   

ad.公开地

参考例句：

• There were some overtly erotic scenes in the film. 影片中有一些公开色情场面。
• Nietzsche rejected God's law and wrote some overtly blasphemous things. 尼采拒绝上帝的律法，并且写了一些渎神的作品。

27 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

28 embargo   

n.禁运（令）；vt.对...实行禁运，禁止（通商）

参考例句：

• This country put an oil embargo on an enemy country.该国对敌国实行石油禁运。
• During the war,they laid an embargo on commerce with enemy countries.在战争期间，他们禁止与敌国通商。

29 frustration   

n.挫折，失败，失效，落空

参考例句：

• He had to fight back tears of frustration.他不得不强忍住失意的泪水。
• He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration.他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。