经济学人:房市 该降温了

 　　The housing market

　　房市

　　Cool it

　　该降温了

　　Property prices are rising swiftly. The Bank of England may intervene

　　房价一路攀登，英格兰银行可能插手

　　BRITAIN'S housing market is like food in a microwave, says Spencer Dale, the chief economist¹ at the Bank of England. It can “turn from lukewarm to scalding hot in a matter of a few economic seconds”. Since the crisis the bank has gained new tools to control the market's temperature. Now that the heat is rising, it may soon start testing them out.

　　英格兰首席经济学家斯宾塞·戴尔说，英国房市就像微波炉里的食品,“从经济角度来看，几秒之内就能从温热到滚烫”。自欧债危机以来，银行已经学到了一种控制市场温度的新手段。然而现在随着市场升温，这些新手段或许也要开始接受全面考验。

　　房市.jpg

　　Until last year house prices were rising predominantly in prosperous central London boroughs². That was largely because of an influx³ of cash-rich buyers, says Neal Hudson of Savills, an estate agency. People saw posh property in the capital as a shelter from economic turmoil⁴ abroad. Elsewhere in Britain, the housing market was torpid⁵. Potential buyers struggled to find mortgages. Falling real wages, economic uncertainty⁶ and the memory of plummeting⁷ house prices during the crisis curbed⁹ Britons' obsession¹⁰ with property.

　　繁华的伦敦中心市镇去年房价还在显著上升。第一太平戴维斯房地产机构的尼尔·哈德逊称，这种现象主要是土豪扎堆造成的。人们把首都地区豪华时髦的地产看作躲避动荡的国外经济的避难所。在英国的其他地区，房市也很萎靡不振。潜在买家为了房屋贷款垂死挣扎。经济危机期间下降的实际工资、经济的不确定性以及直线下降的房价遏制了英国人对房产的痴迷。

　　That changed in 2013. Prices rose by 6.8% in the year to January, according to the Office for National Statistics. They are still increasing fastest in London—up 13.2% compared with last year—but the inflation has spread to outer boroughs. In Brent, an unfashionable part of north-west London, prices have risen 31% in a year, according to a report from Nationwide, a building society. It recorded chunky increases in every part of Britain.

　　2013年情况有所改变。根据国家统计局数据，直至今年一月，房价已上涨了6.8个百分点。伦敦房价还在以最快速度增长—与去年相比增长了13.2%—但是通货膨胀已经变得一发不可收拾，甚至影响到了伦敦以外的地方。据全英房屋抵押贷款协会报道显示，作为伦敦西北部不甚有名的博伦特，其房价一年内就已经上涨了31%。此外，英国各地房价都出现了前所未有的大幅提升。

　　These higher prices are a problem for first-time buyers, but they are not yet unsustainable. Nationally, house prices remain 16% below their pre-crisis peak, adjusted for inflation. Prices are high relative to wages, but that is not surprising. Successive governments have failed to free enough land for new housing developments, while doggedly¹¹ preserving green belts. Borrowing costs have fallen over recent decades, in part because of a global glut¹² of savings¹³, making it easier for Britons to sustain large mortgages. Neither factor is likely to reverse any time soon.

　　对于首次购房者来说，房价更高是一个问题,但是这种价格还可能持续。在全国范围内,房价仍比危机前为了通货膨胀做出调整的峰值水平低16%。房价比工资更高,但这并不令人惊讶。历届政府都未能给新住宅开发用地留下足够空间，而固执地保留绿化带。最近几十年借贷成本下降，部分原因是全球储蓄过剩,使英国人更容易持有大量的抵押贷款。而这两个因素近期都不可改变。

　　Even so, the housing market is notoriously prone¹⁴ to bubbles. In January Mark Carney, the bank's governor, warned MPs of the dangers of “extrapolative expectations”—people rushing to buy on the assumption that prices will continue to surge. Hints of that are visible. People increasingly think house prices will keep climbing. Even though the government's “Help to Buy” schemes, which subsidise higher-risk mortgages, are probably having only a moderate direct impact, publicity¹⁵ surrounding them has fed a broader conviction that prices can only go up.

　　即使如此，房地产市场还是容易出现泡沫。1月, 央行行长马克·卡尼警告国会议员关于“外推预测”的危险——人们争相把钱投向“房价会持续上涨”这样一个预设（当然这种预设也并非没有可能实现）。人们越来越觉得房价会持续上涨。即使这样，政府提出的平息高风险抵押贷款的“帮助购房”政策也可能只能带来些微影响，因为周边环境和舆论让人们相信房价还是会持续上升。

　　Moreover, as borrowers chase higher prices their finances are becoming stretched. At the end of 2013, the average new loan for first-time buyers was 3.4 times the borrower's income—the highest level on record. Barclays, a bank, currently offers mortgages as large as 5.5 times the borrower's income. While interest rates are low, payments on such large loans are manageable. But when rates eventually rise, these borrowers could struggle. A wave of mortgage defaults, accompanied by falling house prices as banks try to sell repossessed houses, could cause yet another British banking¹⁶ crisis.

　　除此以外，由于借款者纷纷朝着高房价房产努力，他们的经济情况也越发紧张。2013年底，首次购房者的平均新增贷款是借款人的收入3.4倍，达到历史上的最高水平。巴克莱银行目前提供的抵押贷款是借款人收入的5.5倍。然而利率低，偿还这种大额贷款还是可行的。但是当利率开始稳步上升时，这些借款者就有点心有余而力不足了。银行试图出售回收房，因而房价下跌，如此一来一波又一波的抵押贷款违约很可能会导致另一次英国的银行业危机。

　　The Bank of England's new Financial Policy Committee (FPC) says it is watching for “emerging vulnerabilities” in the market. Formed less than a year ago to confront threats to financial stability, including bubbles, its range of “macroprudential” tools aim to influence the behaviour of the financial system. Whereas politicians hope rising house prices will cheer voters ahead of next year's general election, the committee can afford to take a longer view. With interest rates expected to remain low for a few more years, it is mulling what to do.

　　英国央行的新金融政策委员会(FPC)说他们正在坐等市场“即将出现的漏洞”。 金融政策委员会成立不到一年，就面临包括房价泡沫在内的金融不稳定因素的威胁，其职能范围的“宏观审慎”工具旨在影响金融行业的一举一动。而政客们希望上涨的房价可以在明年的大选之前重振选民信心,这样金融政策委员才会做长远打算。由于几年内预计利率仍保持在较低水平,FPC正在考虑该做什么。

　　Dabbing¹⁷ the brakes

　　踩刹车

　　One approach is stricter vetting¹⁸ of borrowers. From April 26th banks will have to check that applicants¹⁹ have enough spare cash to cope if the Bank of England raises interest rates as markets expect (to around 3% in 2019). That is still a remarkably²⁰ low standard. Future interest rates are uncertain; in past decades they have frequently exceeded 5%. The FPC has requested the power to impose tougher interest-rate tests, and will probably have it by the summer. That would allow it to curb⁸ the size of new loans, without increasing costs for existing borrowers.

　　控制局面的一种方法是严格审查借款人。从4月26日起，银行必须检查申请者是否有足够的闲钱应对英格兰银行利率提高的打算(到2019年的3%左右)。事实上这还是一个较低标准。未来利率是不确定的,在过去的几十年,他们经常超过5%。金融政策委员会要求实施更严厉的利率测试,这个测试可能会在夏天。这项测试不增加现有借款人的成本，也可控制新增贷款数额。

　　Explore and compare house prices in 13 British regions over time with our interactive²¹ house-price tool

　　用交互式房价工具探索和比较13个英国地区不同时间的房价

　　An alternative is more vigorous stress tests of mortgage lenders themselves, using stringent²² scenarios²³ that assume interest rates rise sharply while house prices fall. Forcing lenders to hold buffers²⁴ large enough to withstand such a shock should deter²⁵ them from offering the riskiest²⁶ kinds of mortgage.

　　除了利率测试，还有一个针对借贷者的压力测试，这个测试使用严格的场景，假设利率大幅上升，房价下跌。强迫接待者承受这样的冲击往往让他们不敢提供风险最高的抵押贷款。

　　Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, thinks the FPC will enforce tougher affordability²⁷ tests this year, possibly as soon as June. That would take some heat out of the market. It could also be unpopular. Poorer people would have to save for longer to buy a house. Wealthy home-owners would lose the comfort of swiftly rising prices. And George Osborne, the chancellor²⁸ of the exchequer²⁹, would probably regret the cooling of a pre-election housing boomlet. But the FPC is independent for a reason. It should not fear to act.

　　投行高盛投资公司的一个经济学家凯文·戴利认为，金融政策委员会赶在今年6月实施更严格的负担能力测试。这可能会使房产市场降温，也可能不受欢迎。经济条件较差的人可能需要花费更长时间为买房存款，富有的房屋所有者也可能因为急速上升的房价颇感不适。英国财政大臣乔治?奥斯本或许会后悔选前冷却房地产短期繁荣的措施。但金融政策委员独立也是有原因的，他们可不怕采取行动。

　　1.turn to 求助于；变成

　　例句:To order, turn to page 236.

　　如需订购，参见236页。

　　2.housing market 房地产市场；住房市场

　　例句:Retailers³⁰ have given up waiting for a turn in the housing market.

　　零售商们已放弃等待房产市场上的转机。

　　3.struggle to 努力；奋力

　　例句:Curiously³¹, the struggle to survive has greatly improved her health.

　　奇怪的是，她拼命求生的抗争使得她的健康状况大有好转。

　　4.according to 根据；按照；依照

　　例句:He advocates streaming children, and educating them according to their needs.

　　他提倡把学生按能力分班，因需施教。

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 boroughs   

（尤指大伦敦的）行政区( borough的名词复数 )； 议会中有代表的市镇

参考例句：

• London is made up of 32 boroughs. 伦敦由三十二个行政区组成。
• Brooklyn is one of the five boroughs of New York City. 布鲁克林区是纽约市的五个行政区之一。

3 influx   

n.流入，注入

参考例句：

• The country simply cannot absorb this influx of refugees.这个国家实在不能接纳这么多涌入的难民。
• Textile workers favoured protection because they feared an influx of cheap cloth.纺织工人拥护贸易保护措施，因为他们担心涌入廉价纺织品。

4 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

5 torpid   

adj.麻痹的，麻木的，迟钝的

参考例句：

• He just walked and his mind drifted slowly like a torpid stream.他只是埋头走，脑袋里思想都凝滞了，有如一汪流不动的溪水。
• Even when he was awake he was completely torpid.他醒着的时候也完全麻木不动。

6 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

7 plummeting   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Prices are rising, falling, going up, going down, shooting up, plummeting, etc. 物价在上涨、下跌、上升、下落、猛然上涨、骤然下跌等。 来自辞典例句
• The enemy plane went plummeting into the sea. 敌机直直掉进海里。 来自辞典例句

8 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

9 curbed   

v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Advertising aimed at children should be curbed. 针对儿童的广告应受到限制。 来自辞典例句
• Inflation needs to be curbed in Russia. 俄罗斯需要抑制通货膨胀。 来自辞典例句

10 obsession   

n.困扰，无法摆脱的思想(或情感)

参考例句：

• I was suffering from obsession that my career would be ended.那时的我陷入了我的事业有可能就此终止的困扰当中。
• She would try to forget her obsession with Christopher.她会努力忘记对克里斯托弗的迷恋。

11 doggedly   

adv.顽强地，固执地

参考例句：

• He was still doggedly pursuing his studies.他仍然顽强地进行着自己的研究。
• He trudged doggedly on until he reached the flat.他顽强地、步履艰难地走着，一直走回了公寓。

12 glut   

n.存货过多，供过于求；v.狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
• There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。

13 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

14 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

15 publicity   

n.众所周知，闻名；宣传，广告

参考例句：

• The singer star's marriage got a lot of publicity.这位歌星的婚事引起了公众的关注。
• He dismissed the event as just a publicity gimmick.他不理会这件事，只当它是一种宣传手法。

16 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

17 dabbing   

石面凿毛，灰泥抛毛

参考例句：

• She was crying and dabbing at her eyes with a handkerchief. 她一边哭一边用手绢轻按眼睛。
• Huei-fang was leaning against a willow, dabbing her eyes with a handkerchief. 四小姐蕙芳正靠在一棵杨柳树上用手帕揉眼睛。 来自子夜部分

18 vetting   

n.数据检查[核对，核实]v.审查（某人过去的记录、资格等）( vet的现在分词 )；调查；检查；诊疗

参考例句：

• Scripts had to be submitted to Ministry of Information officials for vetting. 必须把脚本提交给信息部官员审查。 来自互联网
• Their purpose in clicking deeper into a site is one of vetting. 他们深入点击网站的目的是一种诊疗。 来自互联网

19 applicants   

申请人，求职人( applicant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• There were over 500 applicants for the job. 有500多人申请这份工作。
• He was impressed by the high calibre of applicants for the job. 求职人员出色的能力给他留下了深刻印象。

20 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

21 interactive   

adj.相互作用的，互相影响的，（电脑）交互的

参考例句：

• The psychotherapy is carried out in small interactive groups.这种心理治疗是在互动的小组之间进行的。
• This will make videogames more interactive than ever.这将使电子游戏的互动性更胜以往。

22 stringent   

adj.严厉的；令人信服的；银根紧的

参考例句：

• Financiers are calling for a relaxation of these stringent measures.金融家呼吁对这些严厉的措施予以放宽。
• Some of the conditions in the contract are too stringent.合同中有几项条件太苛刻。

23 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

24 buffers   

起缓冲作用的人（或物）( buffer的名词复数 )； 缓冲器； 减震器； 愚蠢老头

参考例句：

• To allocate and schedule the use of buffers. 分配和计划缓冲器的使用。
• Number of times the stream has paused due to insufficient stream buffers. 由于流缓冲区不足导致流程暂停的次数。

25 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

26 riskiest   

冒险的，危险的( risky的最高级 )

参考例句：

• With markets lately rising, the riskiest investments are finding takers. 他说，在周期高峰时，投资者会追逐风险最高的资产。
• The riskiest subprime securitieshave almost no takers. 风险最高的次级证券几乎没有人持有。

27 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。

28 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

29 exchequer   

n.财政部；国库

参考例句：

• In Britain the Chancellor of the Exchequer deals with taxes and government spending.英国的财政大臣负责税务和政府的开支。
• This resulted in a considerable loss to the exchequer.这使国库遭受了重大损失。

30 retailers   

零售商，零售店( retailer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• High street retailers reported a marked increase in sales before Christmas. 商业街的零售商报告说圣诞节前销售量显著提高。
• Retailers have a statutory duty to provide goods suitable for their purpose. 零售商有为他们提供符合要求的货品的法定义务。

31 curiously   

adv.有求知欲地；好问地；奇特地

参考例句：

• He looked curiously at the people.他好奇地看着那些人。
• He took long stealthy strides. His hands were curiously cold.他迈着悄没声息的大步。他的双手出奇地冷。