经济学人:美国政府面临倒闭风险

 　　Time to stop play-acting and spit out the tea

　　是时候停止演戏，摒弃茶党思维了

　　The Republicans are not being serious about the deficit¹

　　共和党人没有认真对待赤字问题

　　THIRTY billion dollars is a lot of money for anyone except America’s government. In Washington it is a bagatelle²: about what the feds spend in three days, or less than 2% of the predicted budget deficit for this year. Yet in the peculiar³ battle that is now raging over the budget for a fiscal⁴ year already half over, $30 billion is all that now separates the Republicans and the Democrats⁵, who have been bickering⁶ for the past 14 months over the details. Because neither side thinks it can afford to back down, the risks of a government shutdown are rising fast; without an agreement, the government will run out of money on April 8th.

　　300亿美元对任何人来说都是一笔巨款，但对美国政府来说不是。对华盛顿来讲，300亿美元只是小菜一碟：大概相当于联邦政府三天的开销，预计还不到今年财政赤字的2%。然而在这场持续了将近半个财政年度的罕见战争中，就是这300亿美元成为了共和党人和民主党人的分歧所在，在过去的14个月中双方一直在为细节问题争吵不休。因双方均不想为之让步，政府倒闭的风险正迅速增加；如果达不成协议，到4月8日政府将无运转资金。

　　Some irresponsible people, on both sides of the political aisle⁷, think that a temporary shutdown would not matter all that much. A fair few Democrats hope that the Republicans will be blamed for their intransigence⁸, as they were at the time of the last shutdown, in 1995-96 (though they may be disappointed on that score, since public opinion swung against the Republicans in 1996 only after their leader, Newt Gingrich, made a fool of himself over a seat on Air Force One). Those of a tea-partyish persuasion⁹ imagine that they will be politically rewarded by their supporters for sticking to their guns, and that the only good government is one on enforced leave.

　　两党中有些不负责任的人认为政府暂时倒闭不会有太大影响。相当一部分民主党人认为毫不让步的共和党人应受谴责，正如1995-1996年间政府倒闭时共和党人备受指责一样（虽然对此他们倍感失望，因为1996年公众批评共和党人完全是因为其党首纽特·金里奇为了空军一号的一个座位而犯傻）。那些持茶党思维的人认为坚守立场会得到其支持者的政治支持，而且一个好政府是被迫“休假”的政府。

　　In the short term, it is true, a shutdown would be far from catastrophic; soldiers will continue to fight; aircraft will not collide; Social Security (pensions) cheques will mostly continue to be automatically sent out. But it would still be highly disruptive, not least for government employees who will not get paid, and it will inconvenience people and businesses in countless¹⁰ ways. That is no small matter while the recovery remains¹¹ so fragile.

　　确实，短期来讲，政府关门绝不是什么灾难性事件；士兵会继续战斗，飞机不会坠毁，绝大部分社会保险也会自动发放。但它仍极具杀伤力，特别是对那些拿不到薪水的政府工作人员。它也将给公众和企业带来诸多不便。在经济恢复仍旧脆弱的背景下，这绝不是什么小事。

　　More worrying than a shutdown itself would be its implications. If the politicians’ attempts to resolve one year’s budget end in acrimonious¹² collapse¹³, what hope is there of reaching agreement on issues that require both sides to take much more political punishment? Later in April another battle looms¹⁴, this time over the need for an extension to America’s debt limit, currently set at $14.3 trillion and now very close to being reached. A row over the fiscal 2011 budget might not alarm investors¹⁵ too much; a fight over authorising money that ultimately could be needed to pay international creditors¹⁶ is quite another thing.

　　比政府倒闭更让人担忧的是其暗示意义。如果政治家们解决一年预算问题的努力都付诸东流，两党严重分裂，那又有什么希望让双方接受更多的政治让步，就诸多议题达成一致呢？四月后期另一场战役也会打响，这场战役关于是否需要放宽美国的债务限额。目前债务限额为14.3万亿美元，且已逼近底线。因2011年财政预算产生的严重分歧可能并不会使投资者过度担忧；最终可能还需要政府资金支付欠债权国的债务，而就这笔资金产生的争论则是另外一种景象了。

　　And then, of course, comes the even greater challenge of dealing¹⁷ with America’s medium-term fiscal problems, driven mainly by an ageing population and the steadily¹⁸ rising cost of health-care programmes. Even once the economy has wholly recovered from the recession, these factors mean that the country faces a structural¹⁹ deficit of around 3%, which is not sustainable. When a bipartisan commission sketched²⁰ out a way forward at the end of last year, Barack Obama and the Republican leadership raced to distance themselves from its conclusions. A government forced to live hand-to-mouth, funded by stopgap resolutions for a few weeks at a time, hardly looks like one that can calmly negotiate the radical²¹ overhaul²² of the American state that is needed.

　　当然，接下来更大的挑战是如何解决美国的中期财政问题。这一问题主要是由人口老龄化和医改项目支出逐步上涨引起的。即使美国经济完全摆脱衰退，实现复苏，这些因素也将导致该国的结构性赤字率接近3%，不利于可持续经济复苏。去年底，两党连立的委员会概述解决问题的方法时，贝拉克·奥巴马和共和党领导人却相互竞争，企图摆脱其结论束缚。一个被迫依赖每几周制定一次权宜之计以勉强维持生计的政府似乎无法平心静气地协调必需政策，彻底检修美国政府。

　　Stop the play-acting

　　停止演戏

　　Both sides must shoulder some of the blame for the steadily worsening atmosphere on Capitol Hill. The Democrats have failed repeatedly, most recently with Mr Obama’s dishonest budget for the next fiscal year, to indicate how they intend to repair the nation’s finances. Yet even set against that miserable²³ standard, it is the Republicans who deserve most criticism. While extracting many concessions²⁴ from the Democrats, they have made precious few themselves. And while spinelessly failing to explain how the deficit might be controlled in the medium term, conservatives have vaingloriously demanded more cuts in the short term than should be inflicted²⁵ on an economy as weak as America’s now is.

　　两党必须为国会不断恶化的氛围承担部分责任。民主党屡遭挫败，最近一次受挫是奥巴马总统提出的不切实际的下一年财政预算，这也反映了他们迫切期望改善国家财政状况。然而权衡利弊，即使这一标准有失公允，最该受批评的仍是共和党人。虽然民主党人被迫做出许多让步，共和党人却几乎未履行自身职责。保守党人一方面没有骨气解释如何控制中期赤字，另一方面却虚荣自负，过分要求削减短期财政赤字，这会使本已脆弱不堪的美国经济雪上加霜。

　　Left to himself, John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, would probably make a deal to avoid a shutdown. But he is cowed by the new intake²⁶ of theatrical²⁷ extremists bent²⁸ on playing at budget discipline rather than achieving it. It is time he showed some leadership. If he does not, it bodes²⁹ ill for both his party and America.

　　孤身作战的众议院共和党议长约翰?博纳很有可能会妥协以力避政府倒闭。但他也面临着矫揉造作的极端分子带来的威胁，这些人只是借预算问题表演，从不解决问题。他应该展示领导权威了。否则对共和党、对美国都不利。

1 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

2 bagatelle   

n.琐事；小曲儿

参考例句：

• To him money is a bagatelle.金钱对他来说不算一回事。
• One day, they argued for a bagatelle of their children.一天，夫妻为了孩子的一件小事吵起来。

3 peculiar   

adj.古怪的，异常的；特殊的，特有的

参考例句：

• He walks in a peculiar fashion.他走路的样子很奇特。
• He looked at me with a very peculiar expression.他用一种很奇怪的表情看着我。

4 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

5 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 bickering   

v.争吵( bicker的现在分词 )；口角；（水等）作潺潺声；闪烁

参考例句：

• The children are always bickering about something or other. 孩子们有事没事总是在争吵。
• The two children were always bickering with each other over small matters. 这两个孩子总是为些小事斗嘴。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 aisle   

n.（教堂、教室、戏院等里的）过道，通道

参考例句：

• The aisle was crammed with people.过道上挤满了人。
• The girl ushered me along the aisle to my seat.引座小姐带领我沿着通道到我的座位上去。

8 intransigence   

n.妥协的态度；强硬

参考例句：

• He often appeared angry and frustrated by the intransigence of both sides.他似乎常常为双方各不相让而生气沮丧。
• Yet for North Korea,intransigence is the norm.不过对朝鲜来说，决不妥协是其一贯作风。

9 persuasion   

n.劝说；说服；持有某种信仰的宗派

参考例句：

• He decided to leave only after much persuasion.经过多方劝说，他才决定离开。
• After a lot of persuasion,she agreed to go.经过多次劝说后，她同意去了。

10 countless   

adj.无数的，多得不计其数的

参考例句：

• In the war countless innocent people lost their lives.在这场战争中无数无辜的人丧失了性命。
• I've told you countless times.我已经告诉你无数遍了。

11 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

12 acrimonious   

adj.严厉的，辛辣的，刻毒的

参考例句：

• He had an acrimonious quarrel with his girlfriend yesterday.昨天他跟他的女朋友激烈争吵了一番。
• His parents went through an acrimonious divorce.他的父母在激烈吵吵闹闹中离了婚。

13 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

14 looms   

n.织布机( loom的名词复数 )v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的第三人称单数 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• All were busily engaged,men at their ploughs,women at their looms. 大家都很忙，男的耕田，女的织布。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The factory has twenty-five looms. 那家工厂有25台织布机。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

16 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

18 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

19 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

20 sketched   

v.草拟（sketch的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• The historical article sketched the major events of the decade. 这篇有关历史的文章概述了这十年中的重大事件。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He sketched the situation in a few vivid words. 他用几句生动的语言简述了局势。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

21 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

22 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

23 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。

24 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

25 inflicted   

把…强加给，使承受，遭受( inflict的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They inflicted a humiliating defeat on the home team. 他们使主队吃了一场很没面子的败仗。
• Zoya heroically bore the torture that the Fascists inflicted upon her. 卓娅英勇地承受法西斯匪徒加在她身上的酷刑。

26 intake   

n.吸入，纳入；进气口，入口

参考例句：

• Reduce your salt intake.减少盐的摄入量。
• There was a horrified intake of breath from every child.所有的孩子都害怕地倒抽了一口凉气。

27 theatrical   

adj.剧场的，演戏的；做戏似的，做作的

参考例句：

• The final scene was dismayingly lacking in theatrical effect.最后一场缺乏戏剧效果，叫人失望。
• She always makes some theatrical gesture.她老在做些夸张的手势。

28 bent   

n.爱好，癖好；adj.弯的；决心的，一心的

参考例句：

• He was fully bent upon the project.他一心扑在这项计划上。
• We bent over backward to help them.我们尽了最大努力帮助他们。

29 bodes   

v.预示，预告，预言( bode的第三人称单数 )；等待，停留( bide的过去分词 )；居住；（过去式用bided）等待

参考例句：

• This bodes ill for the failure of the programme. 这是那项计划有凶兆。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• This bodes him no good. 这对他是不祥之兆。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》