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2023年经济学人 2023可能和2022差不多糟(2)

时间:2024-01-30 03:18来源:互联网 提供网友:nan   字体: [ ]
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    (单词翻译:双击或拖选)

 

 

    Moreover, today’s valuations were reached during an unusual period: one in which central banks pumped endless liquidity1 into the market via quantitative2 easing (QE).

    此外,今天的估值是在一个不同寻常的时期实现的:在这个时期,各国央行通过量化宽松(QE)向市场注入了无尽的流动性。

    By buying government bonds with newly created money, the Fed and others depressed3 yields and nudged investors4 to seek returns in riskier5 assets, like stocks.

    通过用新创造的货币购买政府债券,美联储和其他机构压低了收益率,促使投资者在股票等风险较高的资产中寻求回报。

    Now these QE programmes are being kicked into reverse.

    现在,这些量化宽松计划正在被逆转。

    One consequence is that governments will rely much more on private investors to hold their debt.

    一个后果是,各国政府将更多地依赖私人投资者来持有其债务。

    In the fiscal6 year of 2022-23, America’s Treasury7 may need to borrow almost twice as much from investors as it did during each of the two years preceding the covid-19 pandemic, and four times the average in the five years before that.

    在2022-23财年,美国财政部可能需要从投资者那里借入的资金,几乎是新冠肺炎疫情暴发前两年每年水平的两倍,是之前五年平均水平的四倍。

    Even without central banks raising short-term interest rates, this glut8 could drive bond prices down and yields up.

    即使各国央行不提高短期利率,这种过剩也可能压低债券价格,推高收益率。

    Just as in 2022, stocks would therefore be left looking less attractive by comparison.

    与2022年一样,相比之下,股票看起来就不那么有吸引力了。

    The final reason for gloom is a divergence9 between economists10 and investors.

    悲观的最后一个原因是经济学家和投资者之间的分歧。

    Although wonks are betting on a recession, many punters still hope one can be avoided.

    尽管书呆子们押注于经济衰退,但许多投机者仍希望经济衰退能够避免。

    Markets expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to hit a peak of below 5% in the first half of this year, before declining.

    市场预计美联储的基准利率将在今年上半年达到低于5%的峰值,然后开始下降。

    The central bank’s governors disagree.

    央行行长们对此持不同意见。

    They project that the interest rate will end the year above 5%.

    他们预计今年年底利率将超过5%。

    Thus investors are betting either that inflation will fall to target more quickly than the Fed expects, or that the monetary11 guardians12 do not have the heart to inflict13 the pain it would take to get it down.

    因此,投资者要么押注通胀降至目标的速度将比美联储预期的更快,要么押注货币监管机构没有勇气承受降低通胀所需的痛苦。

    There is, of course, a chance they will be proved right.

    当然,他们有可能被证明是正确的。

    But markets spent much of 2022 underestimating the Fed’s hawkishness14, only to be put in their place by Jerome Powell, the central bank’s governor, at meeting after meeting.

    但在2022年的大部分时间里,市场都低估了美联储的鹰派强硬手段,最终让美联储行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次又一次的会议上提醒市场注意自己的位置。

    If the pattern repeats, 2023 will be another miserable15 year for investors.

    如果这种模式重演,2023年对投资者来说将又是悲惨的一年。


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 liquidity VRXzb     
n.流动性,偿债能力,流动资产
参考例句:
  • The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
  • The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。
2 quantitative TCpyg     
adj.数量的,定量的
参考例句:
  • He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
  • We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。
3 depressed xu8zp9     
adj.沮丧的,抑郁的,不景气的,萧条的
参考例句:
  • When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
  • His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。
4 investors dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99     
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
  • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
5 riskier 4b337f01212613d2805f0ac853a3fd43     
冒险的,危险的( risky的比较级 )
参考例句:
  • Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
  • The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来:RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。
6 fiscal agbzf     
adj.财政的,会计的,国库的,国库岁入的
参考例句:
  • The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
  • The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。
7 treasury 7GeyP     
n.宝库;国库,金库;文库
参考例句:
  • The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
  • This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。
8 glut rflxv     
n.存货过多,供过于求;v.狼吞虎咽
参考例句:
  • The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
  • There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。
9 divergence kkazz     
n.分歧,岔开
参考例句:
  • There is no sure cure for this transatlantic divergence.没有什么灵丹妙药可以消除大西洋两岸的分歧。
  • In short,it was an age full of conflicts and divergence of values.总之,这一时期是矛盾与价值观分歧的时期。
10 economists 2ba0a36f92d9c37ef31cc751bca1a748     
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
  • Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
11 monetary pEkxb     
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的
参考例句:
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
12 guardians 648b3519bd4469e1a48dff4dc4827315     
监护人( guardian的名词复数 ); 保护者,维护者
参考例句:
  • Farmers should be guardians of the countryside. 农民应是乡村的保卫者。
  • The police are guardians of law and order. 警察是法律和秩序的护卫者。
13 inflict Ebnz7     
vt.(on)把…强加给,使遭受,使承担
参考例句:
  • Don't inflict your ideas on me.不要把你的想法强加于我。
  • Don't inflict damage on any person.不要伤害任何人。
14 hawkishness 99c604d86bc46b308637fb3d6ff2a537     
参考例句:
  • That hawkishness is part of the reason for the euro's rise. 这种制止通胀的态度是欧元上升的一部分原因。
15 miserable g18yk     
adj.悲惨的,痛苦的;可怜的,糟糕的
参考例句:
  • It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他,这是可耻的。
  • Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。
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TAG标签:   2023年听力  经济学人
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