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SSS 2008-10-21

时间:2010-05-15 02:49来源:互联网 提供网友:木渐浅。   字体: [ ]
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This is Scientific American's 60-Second Science. I'm Steve Mirsky . Got a minute ?

The World Series starts October 22nd, with the improbable American League champion Tampa Bay Rays hosting the National League best Philadelphia Phillies. And there’s a 59 percent chance that the Rays will take the title. That what Bruce Bukiet says, anyway. He’s a mathematician1 at the New Jersey2 Institute of Technology who sets odds3 on the playoffs and World Series every year.

Bukiet starts with each player’s statistics for the 2008 season. He then uses a model that estimates run production per game based on those stats. His most probable outcomes are a 20 percent chance of a Rays championship in six games, and a 19 percent chance of a seven game Rays win. But beware. In the 2006 postseason only one of his favorites in the seven different series actually came out victorious4. Nevertheless, he’s gotten it right in six of the last eight years. Of course, when predicting sporting events, always follow the advice of Damon Runyon, who said, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that’s the way to bet.”

Thanks for the minute for Scientific American's 60-Second Science. I'm Steve Mirsky.

 


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1 mathematician aoPz2p     
n.数学家
参考例句:
  • The man with his back to the camera is a mathematician.背对着照相机的人是位数学家。
  • The mathematician analyzed his figures again.这位数学家再次分析研究了他的这些数字。
2 jersey Lp5zzo     
n.运动衫
参考例句:
  • He wears a cotton jersey when he plays football.他穿运动衫踢足球。
  • They were dressed alike in blue jersey and knickers.他们穿着一致,都是蓝色的运动衫和灯笼短裤。
3 odds n5czT     
n.让步,机率,可能性,比率;胜败优劣之别
参考例句:
  • The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
  • Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗?
4 victorious hhjwv     
adj.胜利的,得胜的
参考例句:
  • We are certain to be victorious.我们定会胜利。
  • The victorious army returned in triumph.获胜的部队凯旋而归。
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