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SSS 2011-05-16

时间:2011-06-04 08:58来源:互联网 提供网友:wanglihong80   字体: [ ]
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    (单词翻译:双击或拖选)

This is Scientific American's 60-Second Science. I'm Karen Hopkin. This will just take a minute.

If you want to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar, you should ask your friends. Then average their answers. Because a group guess is often more accurate than that of any one individual. Just don't let them peek1 at each other's responses. Because a new study shows that social influence can sway people's estimates and render the crowd incorrect. The work appears in the Proceedings2 of the National Academy of Sciences.

Crowd wisdom is actually a statistical3 phenomenon. Gather enough estimates and the wild guesses cancel each other out, bringing you closer to the answer. But psychology4 and statistics don't mix. And knowing what your peers think doesn't make you any smarter.

European scientists asked volunteers to estimate statistics like the population density5 of Switzerland. Each person got five guesses. Some were shown their peers' answers and others weren't. Turns out that seeing others' estimates led to a lot of second guessing. Which narrowed the range of the group's responses and pointed6 them in the wrong direction. Even worse, knowing that others said the same thing made everyone more confident they were right. So there is wisdom in numbers—as long as those numbers keep quiet till they're counted.

Thanks for the minute. For Scientific American's 60-Second Science, I'm Karen Hopkin.


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 peek ULZxW     
vi.偷看,窥视;n.偷偷的一看,一瞥
参考例句:
  • Larry takes a peek out of the window.赖瑞往窗外偷看了一下。
  • Cover your eyes and don't peek.捂上眼睛,别偷看。
2 proceedings Wk2zvX     
n.进程,过程,议程;诉讼(程序);公报
参考例句:
  • He was released on bail pending committal proceedings. 他交保获释正在候审。
  • to initiate legal proceedings against sb 对某人提起诉讼
3 statistical bu3wa     
adj.统计的,统计学的
参考例句:
  • He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
  • They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。
4 psychology U0Wze     
n.心理,心理学,心理状态
参考例句:
  • She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
  • He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。
5 density rOdzZ     
n.密集,密度,浓度
参考例句:
  • The population density of that country is 685 per square mile.那个国家的人口密度为每平方英里685人。
  • The region has a very high population density.该地区的人口密度很高。
6 pointed Il8zB4     
adj.尖的,直截了当的
参考例句:
  • He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
  • She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。
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