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奥巴马希望打破 “第二任期诅咒”

President Barack Obama is preparing for a second four-year term after his re-election victory.  But second terms have not always been kind to recent U.S. presidents.

奥巴马总统11月早些时候赢得大选之后，正在为第二个任期做准备。奥巴马深知前几任总统的第二任期并非都很顺利。

In the wake of a rousing victory on election night, Obama vowed¹ to learn from supporters and critics alike in his second term.

奥巴马在选举日当晚对高呼“再当四年”的支持者发表了讲话。

“And whether I earned your vote or not I have listened to you, I have learned from you and you have made me a better president," said Obama. "I return to the White House more determined² and more inspired than ever about the work there is to do and the future that lies ahead.”

他说：“不管我是否赢得你的选票，我聆听你们的想法。我从你们那里学到了一些东西，你们使我成为更好的总统。我返回白宫连任的时候，对于我未来的任务和前途比以往更有决心，更受到鼓舞。”

Republicans are already adapting to the reality of a second Obama term, including House Speaker John Boehner.

包括众议院议长贝纳在内的共和党人已经在调整自己适应奥巴马连任的现实。

House Speaker John Boehner??“Mr. President, this is your moment.  We are ready to be led not as Democrats³ or Republicans but as Americans," said Boehner.

贝纳说：“总统先生，这一刻是属于你的。我们准备接受你的领导，不是作为民主党人或共和党人，而是作为美国人。 ”

But if history is any guide, Obama may find his second term more challenging than his first, says former Reagan White House chief of staff Ken⁴ Duberstein.

但是前里根政府的白宫办公厅主任杜伯尔斯坦说，如果历史可供借鉴的话， 奥巴马可能会发现，他的第二任期会更有挑战性。

“You know the history of second term presidents at least through World War II has been that inevitably⁵ they go off track in their fifth or sixth year," said Duberstein. "Every second term president somehow finds a scandal, finds a difficulty, a mistake, and it gets elevated.”

他说：“总统连任的历史表明，至少是直到第二次世界大战以后，历届总统在第二任期--在第五年，第六年都会出岔子， 丑闻、困境、错误，都变得严重了。”

Richard Nixon won a landslide⁶ re-election victory in 1972 but was forced to resign because of the Watergate scandal less than two years later.

理查德.尼克松1972年竞选连任时大获全胜，但是不到两年，就因水门事件被迫辞职。

Ronald Reagan’s reputation suffered because of the Iran-Contra scandal and Bill Clinton was impeached⁷ over the Monica Lewinsky affair.

里根总统在伊朗门丑闻曝光后名誉受损，克林顿总统因为跟莫妮卡.莱文斯基的婚外情而受到弹劾。

George W. Bush was harshly criticized for his handling of Hurricane Katrina and unanticipated problems in Iraq.

小布什总统处理卡特里娜飓风备受非议。

President Obama says he’s well aware of what some historians call the ‘second term curse.’

奥巴马总统说，他深知有些历史学家所说的“第二任期诅咒”。

“I don’t presume that because I won an election that everybody suddenly agrees with me on everything," said Obama. "I’m more than familiar with all the literature about presidential overreach in second terms.  We are very cautious about that.”

他说：“我并不认为，因为我赢得了选举，每个人在每件事上就会突然同意我的看法。我很熟悉有关总统连任后因为过于雄心勃勃而失败的论述。我们非常小心。 ”

The president is wise to note the second term pitfalls⁸ of his predecessors⁹, says University of California historian Matthew Dallek.

加州大学的历史学者马修.达勒克说，这是明智的做法。

“So he’s very conscientious¹⁰ of it and he’s signaling that he wants to be pragmatic and he doesn’t want the ‘world’ (everything), he’s not asking for ‘pie in the sky’ things and that he’s going to work in areas where he thinks that he can work in," said Dallek.

他说：“奥巴马对此很谨慎，他表示要务实，不好大喜功，不制定不可能实现的目标，他办事要在自己认为力所能及的范围内。”

It’s also important for the president to build political relationships, says former Reagan aide Duberstein.

前里根总统的助手杜伯尔斯坦说，总统要建立良好的关系，这很重要。

“President Reagan during the Iran-Contra incident, people wanted to believe him," said Duberstein. "He had a reservoir of goodwill¹¹.  President Obama to date doesn’t have those strong relationships.  That is something that I think he fundamentally has to address in these initial months of a second term.”

他说：“在伊朗门事件中， 人们愿意相信里根总统，因为他人缘非常好。奥巴马总统到目前为止并没有建立起这么良好的关系。我认为他在第二任期的头几个月应该解决这个问题。 ”

And so even as President Obama looks ahead to an ambitious second-term agenda, analysts¹² expect he will be mindful of some of the mistakes of his predecessors.

新当选的奥巴马总统在展望未来，同时他也注意到他的前任们在第二任期所犯的错误。