新闻周刊:马斯克的豪赌:特斯拉能为汽车制造带来革新吗?(6)

The High Cost of Success

成功的高成本

Even if Musk¹ fails to turn Tesla into a mass-market carmaker, its profits in the luxury market and its many innovations may serve as the catalysts² for an ecosystem³ of new transportation-companies and initiatives that will go on to thrive and flesh out his vision for a worldwide conversion⁴ to electric vehicles.

即使马斯克不能使特斯拉成为面向大众市场的汽车制造商，其在奢侈品市场的利润和许多创新，还是可能催化新交通公司生态系统，并振兴充实电动汽车风靡全球的愿景。

“Thanks partly to Elon, the supply chain and consumer acceptance are maturing,” says Evelozcity’s Kindler⁵. “Because of that, it’s a safe bet that electric cars are coming to the masses.”

“部分得益于伊隆·马斯克，供应链和消费者接受度趋于成熟，” Evelozcity公司的金德勒说道。“正因如此，电动汽车向大众普及是一个安全赌法。”

The rub, of course, is that the better things look for Tesla, or companies that pattern themselves after Tesla, the worse they look for the future of American manufacturing jobs. Musk has made clear he’s aiming to do away with workers. He’s publicly referred to his goal of turning Tesla’s factories into “a machine that builds machines,” adding that he’s going to keep piling on the automation until the assembly line looks like “an alien dreadnought.” He promised last year to speed up his production rate by a factor of 20—not by hiring but by doubling the number of robots in his factories to nearly 1,000. According to analysts⁷, Tesla, on average, has already invested twice as much in robots per car produced than other car manufacturers.

当然，问题是特斯拉或那些效仿特斯拉的公司情况越好，美国制造业就业岗位的前景就越悲观。马斯克已经明确表示，他的目标是替代工人。他曾公开表示，他的目标是把特斯拉的工厂变成“一台制造机器的机器”，并补充说，他将继续推进自动化，直到装配线看起来像“一艘外星人的重炮战舰”。去年，他承诺将生产速度提高20倍——不是通过雇佣，而是通过将工厂里的机器人数量增加一倍，达到近1000台。分析师表示，平均而言，特斯拉在每辆汽车上投入的机器人数量是其它汽车制造商的两倍。

And the robots he’s buying are far more sophisticated than those you typically find in auto⁶ factories, which do the same simple action over and over again. Tesla’s bots can be programmed to perform a number of different, more complex tasks, even working together in groups as large as 15 on a single car. It is the first automaker ever to let robots handle final assembly of the cars, a complex set of tasks that is the last bastion of human labor⁸ in auto factories. Analysts have pointed⁹ out that at the assembly line speeds that Musk has said he’s shooting for, the presence of even a single human would be a hindrance¹⁰, if not an outright¹¹ hazard.

他购买的机器人远比你通常在汽车工厂看到的复杂得多，汽车工厂一遍又一遍地做着同样简单的动作。通过编程，特斯拉的机器人可以执行许多不同的、更复杂的任务，甚至可以在一辆汽车上以多达15个小组的规模一起工作。这是有史以来第一家允许机器人完成汽车总装的汽车制造商，而汽车总装是汽车工厂人类劳动的最后堡垒。分析人士指出，如果不考虑直接危害，要达到马斯克声称追求的生产线速度，即使一个人力都会成为阻碍。

So far, the effort to hyper-roboticize Tesla’s factories has been bumpy¹². Automation glitches¹³ are largely behind some of the big delays in Model 3 production. “Humans are underrated,” Musk said after failing to hit targets earlier this year. Which is not to say that there is any chance he will give up on his longer-range goal of eliminating workers. It’s no mystery why: Volkswagen has calculated that its robots work for less than $6 an hour, with all costs figured in, compared with $47 an hour in total costs for a human worker.

迄今为止，对特斯拉工厂进行超级机器人化的努力并不顺利。在Model 3的生产过程中，自动化故障在很大程度上是延迟的原因。“人类被低估了，”在今年早期未能完成目标后马斯克如是说道。但这并不是说他有可能放弃长期的裁员目标。原因并不神秘：大众汽车计算出，其机器人每小时的工作成本不到6美元，所有成本都计入在内，人类工人每小时的总成本为47美元。

If Musk succeeds in getting rid of humans in the car factory, he’ll likely be able to leverage¹⁴ that achievement, doing the same for the production of the semitrucks he’s starting to build, as well as for his already heavily automated¹⁵ battery, solar panel and space ventures (plus any future industry-killer companies that he has yet to dream up). And Tesla’s self-driving cars could mean the loss of another layer of employment opportunities: human drivers, a job currently held by roughly 3 percent of the American working population, including 3.5 million truck drivers.

如果马斯克成功用机器替代了汽车工厂里的人工，他很可能会同样运用于正开始建造的电动半挂卡车生产，还会运用于已经高度自动化的电池、太阳能电池板和太空冒险（以及其尚未构想出的任何未来“行业杀手”公司）。而特斯拉的自动驾驶汽车可能意味着另一层就业机会的丧失：人类司机，目前约有3%的美国工作人口从事这项工作，其中包括350万卡车司机。

1 musk   

n.麝香, 能发出麝香的各种各样的植物，香猫

参考例句：

• Musk is used for perfume and stimulant.麝香可以用作香料和兴奋剂。
• She scented her clothes with musk.她用麝香使衣服充满了香味。

2 catalysts   

n.催化剂( catalyst的名词复数 )；触媒；促进因素；有感染力的人

参考例句：

• The first catalytic converters were called conventional oxidation catalysts. 最初的转化器叫做常规氧化催化器。 来自辞典例句
• Many processes that are essential to the chemical industry use heterogeneous catalysts. 很多重要的化学工业过程就是使用多相催化剂的。 来自辞典例句

3 ecosystem   

n.生态系统

参考例句：

• This destroyed the ecosystem of the island.这样破坏了岛上的生态系统。
• We all have an interest in maintaining the integrity of the ecosystem.维持生态系统的完整是我们共同的利益。

4 conversion   

n.转化，转换，转变

参考例句：

• He underwent quite a conversion.他彻底变了。
• Waste conversion is a part of the production process.废物处理是生产过程的一个组成部分。

5 kindler   

[人名] 金德勒

参考例句：

• One of them is Jeffrey Kindler, the chairman of Pfizer. 辉瑞公司的主席杰弗里·金德勒(JeffreyKindler)就是其中的一位。
• So why did Mr Kindler take the plunge? 那么，金德勒到底为什么要冒这个险呢？

6 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

7 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

8 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

9 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

10 hindrance   

n.妨碍，障碍

参考例句：

• Now they can construct tunnel systems without hindrance.现在他们可以顺利地建造隧道系统了。
• The heavy baggage was a great hindrance to me.那件行李成了我的大累赘。

11 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

12 bumpy   

adj.颠簸不平的，崎岖的

参考例句：

• I think we've a bumpy road ahead of us.我觉得我们将要面临一段困难时期。
• The wide paved road degenerated into a narrow bumpy track.铺好的宽阔道路渐渐变窄，成了一条崎岖不平的小径。

13 glitches   

n.小过失，差错( glitch的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Manufacturing glitches have limited the factory's output. 生产中的故障影响了该厂的产量。 来自辞典例句
• Another kind of period variation,\"Glitches,\" are seen in several pulsars. 在几个脉冲星中还看到了周期的另一种变化，即“自转突快”现象。 来自辞典例句

14 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

15 automated   

a.自动化的

参考例句：

• The entire manufacturing process has been automated. 整个生产过程已自动化。
• Automated Highway System (AHS) is recently regarded as one subsystem of Intelligent Transport System (ITS). 近年来自动公路系统(Automated Highway System,AHS)，作为智能运输系统的子系统之一越来越受到重视。