2020年经济学人 电影院危机(2)（在线收听）

She may be too late. Attendance was declining before covid-19. To distinguish a night at the movies from a night with Netflix, cinemas built snazzy multiplexes with waiters ferrying burgers to viewers lolling in reclining seats. This helped rack up debt: AMC’s $10bn-worth was more than six times last year’s gross operating profit. Cineworld’s ratio was almost as high.

神奇女侠可能来的太晚了。新冠爆发以前，观影人数就在下滑。为了区别影院观影以及在家用网飞进行观影，影院打造了新潮的多银幕电影院，而且服务员会把汉堡送到懒洋洋躺在座椅上的观众手中。这也增加了债务：AMC负债100亿美元，是去年总营业利润的六倍以上。电影世界的比率几乎一样高。

Nine months without revenues from big releases would be disastrous. America’s National Association of Theatre Owners predicts that seven out of ten small or medium- sized cinema companies will go bust without a bail-out, which it has urged Congress to grant. Both AMC and Cineworld are likely to default or file for bankruptcy, believes Moody’s, a ratings agency; AMC could run out of cash by January. Share prices of Western operators have slumped this year, and are now worth a fifth as much as five years ago. (Chinese ones have done better.)

九个月没有大片发行带来的收入于影院而言是场灾难。美国全国影院业主协会预测，如果没有纾困，70%的中小型影院公司将会破产，该协会也不断敦促国会批准企业救济。穆迪评级机构认为，AMC和电影世界都可能违约甚至申请破产。AMC可能会在明年1月耗尽现金。今年西方各家影院公司的股价暴跌，现在的股价只有五年前的五分之一。(中国的影院公司状况稍好一些。)

Cinema bosses have urged studios to keep the films coming. Eric Wold of B. Riley, an investment bank, says Hollywood may need to “take a hit to feed the industry” and keep it from “completely falling apart”. Warner Bros took one by releasing “Tenet” in the summer; with takings of just $45m at the American box office, the sci-fi thriller may not break even. And studios cannot afford charity. Disney recently laid off 28,000 workers from its covid-hit theme parks.

电影院的老板们敦促电影公司不断制作电影。投资银行B. Riley的艾瑞克·伍得表示，好莱坞可能需要“自断其臂以养活行业”，防止整个行业“彻底分崩离析”。华纳兄弟在今年夏天发行了《信条》，这部科幻惊悚片在美国的票房收入只有4500万美元，可能无法实现收支平衡。制片公司可不会行善积德。受疫情影响，迪士尼最近解雇了旗下主题公园的2.8万名员工。

One day the blockbusters will return. Even then, cinemas will have to defer investments, raise prices and close branches to shore up their balance-sheets—just as viewers have more reasons than ever to stay home. The average American household subscribes to four streaming services, reckons Deloitte, a consultancy. Film studios are bargaining down how long films are shown exclusively in theatres; AMC recently let Universal put future releases online after just three weekends in cinemas, in return for a share of the takings. Even if covid-19 doesn’t smash it entirely, the big screen is likely to get a lot smaller.

大片终有一天会回归。但即便如此，观众比以往任何时候都更有理由呆在家中，影院也不得不推迟投资，提高票价并关闭分支机构来支撑其资产负债表。咨询机构德勤估计，美国家庭平均订购四种流媒体服务。电影制片厂正在就影院独播电影的时间而讨价还价。最近，AMC同意环球影院的新片在影院仅连续放映三个周末后就投放到流媒体平台，作为回报，AMC可以从中分一杯羹。即使新冠病毒没有完全粉碎电影行业，影院市场也很可能会缩水很多。