VOA慢速英语2018--世界杯冠军预测:西班牙、巴西、德国还是俄罗斯

World Cup Predictions: Spain, Brazil, Germany, or Russia

The 2018 FIFA World Cup began Thursday in Russia. Football fans have waited four years to see their favorite teams compete for the world championship.

It is the year’s biggest sporting event. People across the world are already making their predictions for which team will win.

Professional bookmakers create odds¹, which use large amounts of information to measure the probabilities² for winners and losers. People use those odds to decide which teams to bet³ on. The bookmakers then pay off those bets⁴.

For 2018, the bookmaker odds clearly favor Brazil to win the World Cup. Defending champion Germany is second, with Spain and France not far behind.

But this year, several groups have also turned to machine learning⁵ and artificial⁶ intelligence, or AI, for predictions.

One of the groups is a research team from Germany. Andreas Groll of the Technical University of Dortmund led the group.

In a report on the results, Groll said his team used computers to simulate⁷ the whole World Cup competition 100,000 times. Machine learning was used to predict the expected number of goals made by each team in each game. The prediction method combined large amounts of information on the teams’ abilities and individual players’ performances from the past.

So who did Groll’s machines pick as the winner? The results chose Spain as the most likely World Cup champion, with a probability⁸ of 17.8 percent. Germany was next, followed by Brazil, France and Belgium.

However, Groll’s team said it could not predict Spain as the sure winner. This is because of the way the World Cup competition is structured.

The reason Spain has a small lead over Germany is mostly because Germany has a higher chance of not making it to the quarterfinals. But if Germany does make it to the quarterfinals, the German team would actually be favored to beat Spain, the researchers said.

In another recent prediction created through machine learning, the financial company Goldman Sachs chose Brazil as the 2018 World Cup winner. Germany was chosen as the team most likely to lose to Brazil.

The company said its method was based on 200,000 data models and 1 million simulations of the whole World Cup. Machines examined information on the teams and players’ abilities, as well as past performances. In 2014, Goldman Sachs also predicted Brazil to win the World Cup. But Germany actually ended up winning the 2014 championship.

Many people who are interested in the 2018 World Cup will surely take note of the numbers-based predictions by bookmakers and AI machines.

But others might choose to believe the choices of a cat said to have psychic⁹ abilities. The cat, named Achilles, lives in Russia’s Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg.

Achilles officially works¹⁰ there as a mouse catcher. But some locals say the animal is also able to predict future happenings. So far, he has only predicted one World Cup match, the opening game between Russia and Saudi Arabia. When offered a choice between two containers of food, Achilles chose the one with a Russian flag.

The choice could be seen as a good luck sign for Russia’s team. Even though Russia is holding the World Cup, its team is rated the lowest of any of the 32 competing.

I’m Bryan Lynn.

Words in This Story

odds – n. the probability that something will happen

bet – v. to risk money on the result of a game, competition, etc

artificial intelligence – n. ability of a machine to reproduce¹¹ human behavior

simulate – v. do or make something that behaves or looks like something real but which is not real

quarterfinals – n. one of four matches, games, or contests to decide the people or teams that will continue playing in a competition

psychic – adj. having a special mental ability to know what will happen in the future or know what people are thinking

1 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

2 probabilities   

可能性，可能发生的事( probability的名词复数 )； 概率

参考例句：

• When we want something, we always have to reckon with probabilities. 当我们需要某件东西时，我们总得考虑或然性。 来自哲学部分
• Therefore, individual-preference curves should be substituted for statistical probabilities in decision trees. 因此，在决策树中个人的偏好曲线应当取代统计机率。

3 bet   

v.打赌，以(与)...打赌；n.赌注，赌金；打赌

参考例句：

• I bet you can't do this puzzle.我敢说，你解决不了这个难题。
• I offered to bet with him.我提出与他打赌。

4 bets   

v.敢说，八成儿( bet的第三人称单数 )；打赌(on,against,with)；敢断定；敢说

参考例句：

• Place your bets now—the race begins in half an hour! 现在可以下赌注——赛事于半小时后开始。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• But he did not enter all the losing bets in the accounts-book. 但输家交来的赠金，他并不全部登记入册。 来自辞典例句

5 learning   

n.学问，学识，学习；动词learn的现在分词

参考例句：

• When you are learning to ride a bicycle,you often fall off.初学骑自行车时，常会从车上掉下来。
• Learning languages isn't just a matter of remembering words.学习语言不仅仅是记些单词的事。

6 artificial   

adj.人工的，人造的，人为的；做作的，假装的

参考例句：

• The new dam will form a large artificial lake behind it.新筑的水坝将会在后面形成一个人工湖。
• We don't use any artificial flavourings in our products.我们的产品不使用任何人工调味剂。

7 simulate   

vt.模仿，模拟，假装，冒充

参考例句：

• The wood had been painted to simulate stone.木头上刷了漆以看起来像块石头。
• A sheet of metal was shaken to simulate the noise of thunder.猛力抖动金属片以模仿雷声。

8 probability   

n.可能性，可能发生的事，概率

参考例句：

• The probability that it will rain today is high.今天下雨的可能性很大。
• He must calculate the probability of failure.他必须计算一下失败的概率。

9 psychic   

n.对超自然力敏感的人；adj.有超自然力的

参考例句：

• Some people are said to have psychic powers.据说有些人有通灵的能力。
• She claims to be psychic and to be able to foretell the future.她自称有特异功能，能预知未来。

10 works   

n.作品，著作；工厂，活动部件，机件

参考例句：

• We expect writers to produce more and better works.我们期望作家们写出更多更好的作品。
• The novel is regarded as one of the classic works.这篇小说被公认为是最优秀的作品之一。

11 reproduce   

v.生育，繁殖，复制，重做

参考例句：

• The machine can reproduce a key in two minutes.这机器能在两分钟内复制一把钥匙。
• The picture will reproduce well.这照片会印得很清楚。